It would have been nice to build on the momentum of last week, but we did not. Perhaps this is the pause that refreshes or perhaps we get strength later in the day, but it is not the ideal start to the week with the broader markets showing some strength. To be fair, it was […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
Well, the Fed was not a disaster for the sector and in many ways it worked out well (at least on Fed day). This has generally been a decent week for the sector and while part of that is related to the fundamentals, I still think we are tied to interest rates and the lack […]
May 1st Biotech Update
I would not say that we got momentum but trading in line with the market (if not a little better in parts) is not the worst scenario. I will continue to be a broken record with my call on rates and that once they stabilize they sector will finally start to trade more on fundamentals […]
April 24th Biotech Update
I do not want to be a broken record but we remain in a market driven by macro and not individual stock fundamentals. The one change so far this week (for the better) is that it is driving a broad bounce back in the sector. Whether this ends up marking a bottom or is simply […]
April 22nd Biotech Update
A fun fact, the 13% decline in the XBI was the 12th worst 30 performance in the 18 year history of the index. I guess that is not really a “fun” fact but it highlights just how difficult the past month has been. It is very difficult to be trader or investor in the sector […]
April 19th Biotech Update
Well, I wish something would change but we are back in the rut that was most of later year. To be fair, we did eventually break out of that rut but I will continue to be a repeating record. We need rates to break lower. I think things are getting stretched to the downside (in […]
April 17th Biotech Update
We still wait on the Middle East to see if we need to add another layer of macro worry to the markets. The longer we go on the more likely tension settle but it still seems to rest on the scale of the Israeli response and whether it compels Iran to respond. A tit-for-tat spiral […]
April 15th Biotech Update
Did we dodge the Middle East risk? We did to a certain extent, but I do not think we are completely out of the woods yet. If Israel decided not to response, then I would be quite confident that the risks are significantly lower but it seems like Israel is going to respond and they […]
April 12th Biotech Update
I sort of figured that even the news of some M&A was not going to drastically change the character of the market. I am progressively become more pessimistic about the market and sector. It has little to do with the fundamentals of the sector and a lot to do with the macro structure in which […]
April 11th Biotech Update
Unfortunately, not much has changed since I noted that the sector is back in the interest rate slump. We were negative for the year and that was completely predicable once the interest rate specter raised its head once again. There is no chance that we get a sustained rally as long as we are in […]
April 8th Biotech Update
And we are once again dependent on rates and inflation. Rates are moving higher regardless of what the Fed has been saying as the economy remains stronger than expected. I think we started the year with the thought that we could see upwards of seven rate cuts, but it has generally been around three to […]
April 3rd Biotech Update
I head out of town, and I come back to a precarious market. It seems that interest rates are once against front and center for the sector. The Fed is not talking about raising interest rates and they still have been very clear that the next move will be to cut but the rates themselves […]
March 27th Biotech Update
Well, yesterday was a start that ended in a whimper. We have had these little starts to a recovery before, but they barely lasted more than a couple of days. I sort of wonder if we are now in a new range with $98 as the upper boundary. That would not be the worst scenario […]
March 26th Biotech Update
So a whole lot of nothing yesterday. While I guess it remains good that support is holding, we really need to be building some momentum or, perhaps, we would like to see the sector build some momentum. The sector is certainly in a better place than last year and ultimately, I think we do get […]
March 25th Biotech Update
While the sector certainly seems to be holding up around support, this does not feel like a good place for the sector. The market and tech sectors are at highs and we are struggling to bounce off of what should be pretty strong levels of support. The small caps are not doing as well as […]
March 21st Biotech Update
Nothing really that news worthy this week so far. That being said the sector might be getting some momentum. We definitely needed to some bouncing after the hanging around what should be support and so far we seem to be seeing that bounce. The chart itself is showing a nice two day move and ideally […]
March 18th Biotech Update
Not a lot of news to start the week. Ideally we need to get some positive momentum going in the sector but there is not a ton of fundamentals to get it going this week. It would not be bad to see the sector get some upside movement without a lot of fundamental news but […]
March 14th Biotech Update
Support held yesterday and perhaps that is an early positive sign that we have reached the bottom of this little selloff. One day does not make a successful test of support but it was nice to see and ideally we can build on that green and even accelerate it into the end of the week. […]
March 13th Biotech Update
Well, we are no longer hanging at the higher levels and my original thought that we would test the upper end of the previous range was correct. We are getting close and perhaps the intraday low the other day was the test, but we are pretty close. It is probably a reasonable time to be […]
March 11th Biotech (and Oil) Update
We continue to hang out at these higher levels, although we do not seem to be able to catch any real momentum to the upside. I think we are moving out of what is traditionally more challenging seasonality to more positive. There is typically a post-JPM overhang as secondaries hit the sector and we have […]
