We tried to get a bounce this morning but it is tepid at best. On the positive side we did get a CNBC “Market in Turmoil” segment, which usually marks a bottom. On the negative, the move has been so fast it does not seem like panic or despair has had time to set into […]
August 5 Biotech Update
We live in a sea of macro right now. Take your pick. China and trade. China currency. China and the protest in Hong Kong. India and Pakistan over Kashimir. Iran seized another tanker in the Middle East. Russia and US existing from a nuclear arms control treaty. This move lower has been fast and violent […]
July 30 Biotech Update
Tell me if you heard this before. Good news in the sector that moves individual stocks and yet little effect on the broader sector. We have yet another day with good news (clinical and earnings) and yet the sector is barely green. Granted the broader market is red but this has become a trend. I […]
July 29th Biotech Update
We sort of have another merger Monday but again not what SMID investors were hoping for and another one that might have limited read through to the broader sector. That being said I am a little surprised to see such a negative reaction in the sector, although it could also be a function of more […]
July 26 Biotech Update
The market seems odd to me. Earnings so far have been good and the individual stocks are going higher on the earnings and holding onto the gains. The rest of the sector is struggling. Usually earnings will drive the sector higher or lower and rarely do you see good earnings with these many large caps […]
July 24 Biotech Update
I am a little surprised that there was not more movement from the Senate drug pricing plan (which was later supported by the president). We finally have the outlines of what drug pricing reform will look like over the next couple years and it is generally good for the sector but there was limited reaction. […]
July 23 Biotech Update
This is an odd day in the market. You get the first important large cap earnings, which usually drives the rest of the sector but there is no connection. BIIB (which is discussed below) did well but the broader sector is grossly underperforming it and the broader market. Not exactly sure of the reason but […]
July 10th Biotech Update
The market is in an odd position in that it is doing well with macro having faded into the background. I would keep an eye on the Iran situation flaring again as the Iranians are likely to respond to the British seizure of one of their oil vessels and now Trump is talking about more […]
July 9 Biotech Update
I am back from vacation and have a couple of days to get as much work done before I am taking care of some family issues. I should have some time perhaps late next week but it will be hit or miss. In any case, there are some interesting points that I tangentially followed on […]
June 28th Biotech Update
A good finish to the week so far in the sector. I will try and keep this quick and to the point as it is a little delayed because of waiting on the PFE data. The wait appears to have been worth it. 1. The PFE data looking inferior on both efficacy and safety. The […]
June 27 Biotech Update
A good start to the morning for the sector, although it seems mostly in line with the broader markets. Given the performance the past couple days, however, I am happy to see it up with the broader markets, especially given that lack of any real news (although we are still potentially in the glow of […]
June 25 Biotech Update
So that was unexpected. First, the market is down and sector is higher. Second, we got another large merger to digest. Obviously I will focus on the deal and its implications. 1. I need to go back and listen the conference call so there might be some additional insight later this week but this deal […]
June 24 Market Update
The sector is in an interesting spot. Tensions with Iran remain elevated but did not escalate, which should lead to a risk on move and while the market was tepidly higher the sector is clearly underperforming. Usually risk-on benefits the sector and while one could argue that the elevated macro tensions remain a drag, there […]
June 20th Biotech Update
The sector continues to do well but we may have some additional macro coming with the Iran downing of an American drone in international waters. The market does not seem too upset yet with the situation but that could switch pretty quickly. We are entering a pretty slow time for the market so a not […]
June 18th Biotech Update
We got a very nice follow through during the day yesterday for the sector. That is exactly what you wanted to see and ideally it continues for the next couple days. We certainly do not need it to be as strong as it was yesterday but we need to break the strong day followed immediately […]
June 17 Biotech Update
It is a good start to the week with merger Monday coming back the sector albeit with names we were not expecting. The XBI has been in a nice tight range and while we are still in that range this morning, I would look for a breakout about $84. I am not exactly calling for […]
June 14 Biotech Update
It is Friday again, so be on the lookout for those rumors or late day runners. A slow start to the morning in terms of price action but we are basically trading with the market (although the IBB showing some small relative strength compared to SPY and XBI). 1. There is an interesting contrast with […]
June 13 Biotech Update
I am back but honestly we are entering the summer quite period with little news to drive the sector higher or lower. We did get a break from the macro, which gave an interesting view of the underlying trends in the sector but outside of that it is low volume summer trading. Of course, macro […]
June 6 Biotech Update
Nothing has really changed. Oddly the sector is really underperforming the market today at the start, which is not good but at least we are seeing an end to the tight correlations. I still think everything is going to move with news on the Mexican tariffs. If they go into effect, then everything goes down. […]
June 4 Biotech Update
Are we bouncing or starting a new trend higher? Both are plausible explanations for the recent move as the selling has been pretty consistent and so a dead cat bounce was at least due. The sector outperformed yesterday, although it is modestly underperforming today. I still think we are in a broader macro driven market […]
