The sector and market seem to be trying to make a decision. There was a decent selloff and now the bounce. Is the bounce just resetting the short term oversold conditions for another leg lower or has the selloff provided the dip that the longer term trend higher needed. I am not sure either way […]
January 28 Biotech Update
The sector bounced right where you would expect, which is a positive sign. I am still not convinced that it is setting up well for the near term but you have to respect that it bounced right where support should have existed. This actually sets up for some clarity going forward. If those lows are […]
January 27 Biotech Update
We are heading into a perfect storm for weakness, so stay nimble and/or hedged. The sector has had a nice run and was overbought. We had an uneventful JPM and are set for a series of post-JPM secondaries. The broader market is going to be weak given growing pandemic fears (and the real impact it […]
January 24 Biotech Update
Thanks to everyone who was on the stream yesterday and those that watched afterwards. Not much has really changed between now and then. The sector appears relatively weak but perhaps more range bound than anything else. I would look at the $91.50 or so level on the XBI as the bottom of the range. I […]
January 22 Biotech Update
I think the trading context for the near term is basically set. We have a potential macro scare with the Wuhan coronavirus, earnings, and the sector trading just below breakout levels. Lurking in the background is the democratic primaries, which could influence trading (Sanders and Warren bad for biotech, others good for biotech—or that is […]
January 21 Biotech Update
A long weekend and we start the week like JPM with little to now news. If you stare at the chart closely enough and squint your eyes, we might be setting up a new uptrend with higher lows and higher highs assuming we break above the highs of last week. I would not bet the […]
January 17 Biotech Update
I suspect that the sector is setting up for a run at $100 on the XBI if not breaking above it. People expecting a JPM selloff on the lack of news (me included) were wrong and now the fear of missing out (FOMO) of a breakout to new highs might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The […]
January 16 Biotech Video Update
So today I did a chat on Twitch. If you go to the page there should be a video recording that you can watch. https://www.twitch.tv/chimeraresearch Rest assured quality will improve over time but I sort of like the ability to talk through the issues. Let me know if you have any questions or comments. I […]
January 15th Biotech Update
The snorefest that is JPM continues with no deals and not particularly meaningful company updates. The sector was understandably weak yesterday morning but it had a pretty nice reversal during the day. I am honestly surprised at the strength of the sector given the lack of news. While perhaps strength is not the correct word […]
January 13 Biotech Update
It looks like JPM is going to be a dud. The only deal announced so far with the smallish LLY deal for DERM last week. This has to be one of the weakest news JPM I remember. Add the lack of news with Bernie Sanders recent spike in the political polls and this does not […]
January 10th Biotech Update
We are now ramping up the news with the peak coming Monday. Not many deals announced so far and I suspect we need more for us to get a decent rally next week but it is still early in the JPM news cycle. That being said if Monday morning arrives without more deals (and larger […]
January 9th Biotech Update
I think macro is officially in the background for now. It seems clear the US will not respond and most encouraging is that the US noted that they will not necessarily equate the Iranian proxies with Iran. In other words, everyone is de-escalating. This is not over as economic sanctions remain and that is part […]
January 7 Biotech Update
We remain in the calm before the storm (perhaps both macro and in terms of JPM). I still think the market is underestimating possible Iranian responses and seems to be slightly exhaling in that nothing has happened yet. I too have felt that relaxation but I still cannot believe that Iran would allow the assassination […]
January 6 Biotech Update
I am glad to be back and will be in my usual daily update routine for the foreseeable future. I did not miss a ton of news but we certainly will have some soon enough with JPM next week. Before I left the sector was in a clear uptrend that was unbroken and I noted […]
December 18th Biotech Update
Another slow news day or at least slow trading day. I think the market continues to drift and perhaps we get a large small volume move but markets near yearly highs tend to make marginal new highs. Of course, the marginal new highs are occasionally followed by large moves lower. As such, it might make […]
December 17th Biotech Update
It seems like we are getting into the slow part of the holiday season. News is slowing down as is the trading volume. I suspect we get less and less news as it gets held for JPM (if possible). It would not necessarily be bad for the sector to churn at these levels to build […]
December 16 Biotech Update
We have a decent news morning but I want to focus on three and can do so with a Western theme: the good, the bad, and the ugly. 1. The good: Clearly this is AMRN. We got an early Christmas present with an expanded label. They did not get the primary prevention but also seemed […]
December 13 Biotech Update
There is some news today so I will do a quick Friday note. 1. ATNX had their data and it showed a statistically significant OS improvement. We are getting a little sell the news for a couple of reasons. First, the stock had a good run into these data. Second, the data are not perfect. […]
December 10 Biotech Update
It seems like the sector might breakout and run yesterday morning but it came back to reality in the afternoon. While it would have been nice to see a run, the pullback does not change the trend. Perhaps we will now see a little weakness and pullback to higher lows (as had been the case) […]
December 9th Biotech Update
We have our answer as to the strength of the trend. Positive data are being rewarded (so far) and the perfect storm continues for the sector with not only good data but more M&A. So not only do we need to think about the trend but also whether this is a major breakout as the […]
