The news seems to have dried up as we head into the long weekend. We had “positive” jobs data that seems to be sparking a rally. While the data are good, it is also on the back of the expanded epidemic so it seems a little unsustainable as there have been repeated closings in the […]
July 1st Biotech Update
The market seems to be a little indecisive at this point. We are getting some moves but nothing that seems sustained and only to be reversed to the other side. At this point, it seems the sector has retested the breakout levels and all else being equal should be setup for a continued move higher. […]
June 30th Biotech Update
Sorry, I missed writing on Monday as I try to stay as consistent as possible on Monday as I think it sets up the week. My daughter went on a beech vacation with her friend and their family late last week. Long story short, she got home sick and led to being physically ill, so […]
June 26th Biotech Update
The sector remains strong with a green day yesterday as well as a relative outperformance to the broader market. I guess COVID will not matter until it does but I remain worried that it is only a matter of time before case growth (and like deaths) become too high to ignore. This morning we seem […]
June 25th Biotech Update
The sector seems poised to test the breakout sooner rather than later. I am becoming increasing of two minds about the market. I often say (and try) to trade (invest) the market as it is and not as you think it should be. The sector is trading strong with a clear breakout of a decent […]
June 24th Biotech Update
Clearly we have a breakout in the sector. The next phase will be the retest of the breakout and the old resistance should act as new support. How far do we run until the retest? I would think that we are probably closer to the start of that retest than continued moves higher but we […]
June 22nd Biotech Update
The sector is trying to break out of its range to the upside. Not only did it trade above the range on Friday but close above it. The ultimate confirmation would be a run above the range and then come back and test of the old resistance for support. So at this point I see […]
June 19th Biotech Update
The sector started the week looking like it might break under the range but has ended the week threatening to break out above the range. All that being said I strongly suspect that the outcome is that we once again remain in the range. At some point the range will fail but trying to time […]
June 17th Biotech Update
In a couple of days we are near the upper end of the range for the XBI. There have been some spikes above this level and one to around $108 that marks the toppity top of the range but we are basically in a neutral space right now. It is possible that momentum brings us […]
June 16th Biotech Update
Interesting market. It seemed clear that the sell off was COVID related as we saw the vaccine names as well as the PPE names outperform (and remain green) during the recent selling. In my mind that added some support to the idea that the support levels in the market might not hold. Yesterday we saw […]
June 15th Biotech Update
The sector is right at a point of decision. The XBI is below the $100 level but if you look back it peaked at the $99 level late December and again in mid-February. A close below $99 signals a breaking of the recent range and I would become more bearish. We have not quite done […]
June 11th Biotech Update
Still not a lot to talk about but the market is starting to feel heavy. That being said we remain rangebound in the sector. Sure we are getting these swings and significant red days but we still are basically trading sideways. This is not true for the broader market that seems more like a top […]
June 9th Biotech (and MLP) Update
Not much to talk about today after yesterday relative flood of news. The sector remains in its range and despite the negative start, the sector did make a move higher towards the upper end of its range. The market in general appears disconnected from the economic fundamentals (at least that is the twitter consensus) but […]
June 8th Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week in terms of news at least. The sector remains mired in its range, which with the news over the weekend seems a little surprising. My thought Sunday was that we would remain in the range but make a move to the higher end of the range as the news […]
June 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update
I would like to say something really interesting is happening in the sector or there is some great opportunity but the fundamental news is sort of like the sector- flat. It seems to me there is a dual whammy hitting the sector that is acting as some headwinds that are holding it back. First, MRNA […]
June 2 Biotech Update
The market held up well yesterday and so far this morning. Perhaps I am alone in finding this an odd strength given all the issues and it leads to the question of who is buying the market at these level and fundamental context? Long term value investors? Unlikely as we know Buffet is not buying. […]
June 1st Biotech Update
With all that is going on in the country this weekend it seems odd that we are basically opening up flat. Riots. COVID. China tensions. Any of those you would think would be enough to weaken the market and yet the market open relatively resilient. Of course, it remains early and we could easily weaken […]
May 29th Biotech Update
We got a lot of ASCO data to sort through as well as stock reactions. It is going to take awhile just to look through all the data and probably weeks for the sector to digest all the news. I doubt we will see the data move the sector out of its range but sometimes […]
May 27th Biotech Update
The sector sells off as later in the morning yesterday and on the open today. This remains consistent with my contention that we could be in for a range bound market. It is going to take a couple more round trips between the highs and lows of the range to really convince me (and likely […]
May 22nd Biotech Update
The ups and downs continue as we remain in what could be the developing range. I could be wrong but I think a range bound market would be the most frustrating and money losing market for the largest number of people and hence is the likely outcome. Money might just rotate between sectors moving them […]
