So I think it was a week ago or so that I said that $140 was very likely and then these bounces made it perhaps a little less clear, yesterday made it clear. The question now is whether or not that level will hold. Everything is setting up for a bounce. We had a large […]
March 3rd Biotech (and Energy) Update
The market has been rough. Not in that we have seen a ton of downside but more in terms of the whiplash we have seen. One day looks like a breakdown and the next looks like a breakout. I do not see any clear trend right now and until the market signals by moving out […]
March 1 Biotech Update
A good start to the week on relatively little news. I thought the sector had a clear shot down to the $140 or so level on the XBI but it is possible that the intraday move on Friday marked the bottom. We need more than simply a good start to the week but need it […]
February 26th Biotech Update
We did not get the follow through yesterday and as I feared it simply reset the chart to allow more downside. Clearly $140 on the XBI is in the cards and that would be a 20% or so decline in about three weeks. That is a fast move into bear market territory. I find it […]
February 24th Biotech Update
So it has been a difficult start to the week for sure but we did get a little bit of reversal yesterday. It was more true for the market in general than for the sector but we did not close on the lows which I think is pretty important. Obviously we want to see green […]
February 22nd Biotech Update
We had a good end to last week and we need to see if this will follow through. I sort of thought that the best case scenario was continued selling Friday, Monday and into Tuesday so we could get a reversal Tuesday morning but we got a decent little bounce Friday. That reset the chart […]
February 19th Biotech Update
The sector really seems unable to bounce which seems to open up a move to $150. That being said I really think we are oversold in the near term and so it would really be a signal of disinterest in the sector if we continue to $150. In some ways, it sets up a pretty […]
February 18th Biotech Update
Not a ton of news so a short note today. The sector tried to bounce yesterday and did a decent job but today there is no clear follow through. We are certainly at a level where there should be some support but it does not seem like very many people are exciting about biotech at […]
February 17th Biotech Update
There is not a ton to talk about as we are a little slow on the news front but we are setting up for continued downside in the market. We have the trifecta of limited M&A, continued capital raising at these levels, and bad news as being the most dominate news at this point. I […]
February 12th Biotech Update
The sector certainly seems in pullpack mode. There is nothing to think that the broader trend higher is broken but obviously that is something we want to keep an eye on. There will be a broader and more significant move lower but global equities saw the largest inflow of funds ever last week. There is […]
February 11th Biotech Update
I guess it is escalator up and elevator down sort of market. It was a little strange to see the drop midday on what I could not see as any news. Obviously most see the market as extended and overvalued and do not want to be the last one holding when the correction occurs. I […]
February 10th Biotech Update
Right now the market seems to be the epitome of a market at highs tends to make marginal new highs. The sector has been doing really well and in some ways was leading the moves higher. There was a little pause yesterday which is normal but at this point I still think the trend is […]
February 8th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We have moved past the large cap portion of the earnings with positive price action in the sector but less so in the companies that are reporting. I do not believe that is related to the quality of the earnings as they were generally fine but more of a broader disconnect between large and SMID […]
February 5th Biotech Update
The market seems like the prototypical market at highs tends to make marginal new highs. If that is the case, then the assumption would be a continued slow grind higher until the elevator down correction. In some ways, it also means that we are unlikely to get those price dislocations that make for the really […]
February 4th Biotech Update
The market seems to have calmed down and now we are entering the grind higher phase (so it seems). I would not argue with you if you were to tell me that the market is overvalued and we are in the late stages of the bull market. I would note, however, that these late stages […]
February 3rd Biotech Update
It seems like the reddit traders and the GME short squeeze neither broke the market or revolutionized it. They were unable to keep the price high and avoid the crash (I suspect the Robinhood restriction only hastened the crash) and the were unable to replicate it in their next target of SLV. So odds are […]
February 1st Biotech Update
It is an interesting start to the week and one that will also have the start of earnings season for biotechs. The GME saga continues with both a push to keep GME high but also a push to move into SLV. I am more interested in the SLV plays in that it provides a better […]
January 29th Biotech Update
Yesterday was interesting and today it seems to have settled down a little. As I noted all week this was going to cause some volatility in the market and it has. I am still not sure if the supposed rise of reddit finance (so to speak) changes the market in any way. It could very […]
January 27th Biotech Update
The market is a little odd right now. We are near or at highs and markets at these levels tend to continue higher. Ultimately they will correct and while the moves higher tend to look like grinds, the corrections are fast. What makes the market odd to interpret right now is that we are getting […]
January 25th Biotech Update
The week starts as last week ending which is quiet. We are starting to get earnings this week which will pick up the news flow but it is not really into next week that the biotech earnings starting hitting in earnest. This week we generally are getting some large pharma which will help us get […]
