The sector is at an odd sort of place. It seemed to catch a break and had a reversal off of some support late last week and today we are back to the selling. It does not help that the broader market is not doing well either but at some point the sector has to […]
October 1st Biotech Update
The sector cannot catch a break as we get great clinical news this morning and it will likely end up hurting the sector more than helping. The question in my mind now is whether the support for the sector is $122 or $118 ranges as one cannot ignore the selling in response to positive news. […]
September 30th Biotech Update
What seemed like long rumored has come to pass with a decently sized deal in the sector. The reaction yesterday was quite negative and I think expectations on price got too high. I firmly believe that if this deal was announced last Monday (before the runup in XLRN started) at this exact same price the […]
September 29th Biotech Update
The sector is hostage to the broader market at this point. I think if there was at least a neutral broader market environment then the sector would look and feel a lot better. Between the Evergrande issue and now what is probably fears over the debt ceiling (yet again we have to talk about this), […]
September 27th Biotech Update
We did not get our buyout but certainly have the buyout speculation in high gear. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the rumor but no deal. One would have normally thought the rumor and eventual deal would juice the sector but have we gotten to the point where the speculation […]
September 24th Biotech Update
It really feels like the sector wants to continue the trend higher but the broader market is not going to let it. I think if the broader market sentiment were neutral, then the sector would be moving higher. I do not think the sector has a chance to move higher in the midst of a […]
September 22nd Biotech Update
With all the drama in the markets this week, I have to say that looking at the sector there does not seem to be a ton of damage done to the chart. It looks like we have create a little downtrend in September but a breakout of that mini-downtrend could trigger a run to higher […]
September 20th Biotech Update
Not a good start to the week for the markets and it seems related to the Evergrande, which is China’s second largest real estate company that looks on the verge of going bankrupt. The story is pretty typical with a property developer using too much leverage to grow too fast and get involve in unnecessary […]
September 17th Biotech Update
The sector sort of had that reversal yesterday but it honestly did not seem particularly strong. We are red this morning so perhaps we can get a stronger reversal today to really put in that higher low but the sector seems a little weak. I would have thought we would have at least gotten a […]
September 16th Biotech Update
A very sloppy start for the sector but this could end up being a good signal but that would require a red to green day. We started yesterday lower as well but reversed to end higher. If we get two days in a row of red to green reversals that seem to establish a higher […]
September 15th Biotech Update
The sector is in pullback mode. The past two weeks have been pretty frustrating as the sector has not been able to get any traction and every move higher is met by consistent selling pressure. I still think the base case at this point is that we are in a trend higher and if that […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week but its early and hopefully we can get some momentum. One potential issue is that we have not really had much M&A to follow up on the TRIL deal that generated excitement in the sector. I do not think we are there yet but at some point if […]
September 10th Biotech Update
I think the sector is holding up well, especially given the relatively negative news flow this week. That negative news continued yesterday but so far today has not been too bad. I think that speaks well to the underlying sentiment in the sector and adds to my confidence that we are in an uptrend that […]
September 9th Biotech Update
The low of yesterday got us into the $130 range on the XBI and this could be the place where the chart resets and we place that higher low. There is nothing that can happen today to definitively put in that higher low (well, I guess if we get above $137 and set a higher […]
September 8th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week with no additional M&A to juice the sector and the news that has come out has not been that great. It seems inevitable that we are going to get that pullback given the lack of deals and negative news flow and so the question is how much of […]
September 3rd Biotech Update
It seems clear to me that we have broken out of the range and have a nice little uptrend going on. We still have to have a pullback that resets the short term stochastics and allows us to put in a higher low (and then followed by a higher high). When that happens it will […]
September 1st Biotech Update
I am back, although I am lucky to have power as most of Baton Rouge is still without power (which means without AC when the heat index is over 100 degrees). I have not been able to follow the sector too closely but it looks like we are having a nice little breakout with some […]
August 27th Biotech Update
Still not a lot of news in the sector. The XBI basically pushed up to the upper end of the range and is now pausing/retracing. The question is what happens after the pause? Is it a pause that refreshes and allows for a breakout or is it the start of the retracement to the lower […]
August 25th Biotech Update
We lost a little bit of the momentum yesterday but we have had a short strong move and so a little pause is not crazy. Of course a little pause to refresh is different than a move back towards the lower end of the range. Yes, my assumption will remain that we are in that […]
August 23rd Biotech Update
What is happening? Do we actually have M&A that could be more broadly meaningful for the sector? I think we might actually have had one. Obviously we need to see how the sector ultimately reacts to the deal but it is setup as being really good for the sector and not just for one day […]
