I may have bottomed the sector. I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before. There as […]
January 28th Biotech Update
So it seems like the sector will not be building off of the reversals earlier in the week. We can point to a number of potential factors like the fed and interest rates, the correction in the broader markets, the risk of conflict in Europe, or the spate of clinical holds this week. I am […]
January 7th Biotech Update
We should be in the calm before the storm as I do not see a company releasing news today. If you were going to announce something to get eyeballs before the conference then you more likely PRed earlier in the week. Releasing something Friday afternoon (outside of something bad to bury the news) does not […]
January 4th Biotech Update
Yesterday ended up being a good day but we have seen this before and to really turn the page we need to have multiple good days in a row. So while it was nice to see and was a good start to the new year, it will take more than a single day to convince […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
December 1st Biotech Update
It is hard to be optimistic with the sector. We are well overdue for a bounce and if we assume that we are in a bear market these rallies can be significant. I have been looking at the sector as being in a large range and now that has been clearly broken. Is there a […]
November 17th Biotech Update
The sector is doing what it does. It is remaining in the range and aggravating investors with it continued under performance. This should be a seasonally strong period but we remain stuck in the range. Perhaps investors still have some lingering concerns about drug pricing reforms and the details that are being worked out. Or […]
August 2nd Biotech Update
With another big week of earnings, we have another potential to get some interest in the sector but last week was a good week of earnings and another bad week for the sector. Everyone is still waiting on the big exciting thesis changing news and/or M&A, which has been notably lacking in the sector this […]
June 16th Biotech Update
Not a lot going on in the sector today. We had that pullback yesterday and it puts us in an odd space. There is not a really clear place to bounce with the $131.5 or so level perhaps a point. We need to find some point above the recent lows to bounce and move to […]
June 9th Biotech Update
We had a nice little ramp to end yesterday and hopefully that is a sign of some building momentum in the sector. There are good reasons for us to get some positive momentum with the BIIB approval (it is probably the largest positive surprise this year) and the broader market is likely supportive as well […]
June 3rd Biotech (and MLP) Update
We are inching our way closer to the major catalysts. ASCO is coming this weekend but I do not think anything from ASCO is going to have the same impact on the sector as the adu decision or perhaps even the VRTX data. I am a little nervous in that ASCO usually has a sell […]
June 1st Biotech Update
I was hoping that we would have a surge of M&A starting after this long weekend but I knew it was a pipedream and we are still waiting. There are still a ton of binary events coming in June (BIIB adu PDUFA, VRTX data, and ASCO to name a few) so we might not need […]
May 28th Biotech Update
We have had 3 green days in a row (assuming that today remains green). This is sadly the best the sector has done in awhile. If you look really hard you can see a mini uptrend with this being the first higher high after a higher low. I call it mini as it is still […]
October 30 Biotech Update
I said that a kick was possible for the sector and it could be pulling one off. Yesterday ended up better than I expected and was the start of that save but the market remains in a precarious position with anxiety over the election potentially overwhelming everything today. Of course, the consensus seems to be […]
October 15th Biotech (and MLP) Update
Not much to add as we gear up for earnings season and the sector basically following the broader market in its moves. It looks like we are switching from setting the new higher high level to establishing the higher low level. In other words, we are likely in the part of the uptrend where the […]
May 19th Biotech Update
What kills bulls runs in the sector? News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end. Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end. We […]
May 1st Biotech Update
We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down. This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little. Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]
April 30th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We continue with a back and forth week. I think we have alternated up and down days this entire week. This continues day and clearly we have a week of indecision. This is not necessarily bullish. Yes, it is bullish to basically digest a move higher with sideways action but the news this week has […]
January 31 Biotech Update
The market seems on edge. It looks like people want to sell but have been so trained to be the dips that it is almost like muscle memory at this point. This sets up for a very quick and severe drop if it happens. In other words, if the market suddenly thinks this dip will […]
September 3 Biotech Update
We remain in the summer doldrums but more than that we are stuck in the macro issues. Between a potential recession to the China trade war, it is virtually impossible to get through a week without something whipping the sector and market. Today we might actually be getting to a point where China starts to […]
