I do not expect any major changes until at least Wednesday. That assumes that we have some sort of election clarity (hopefully). Even then I am not sure what is best for the sector. I would usually assume that a Republican win would be better but some are naturally getting nervous about RFK role in […]
September 20th Biotech Update
Well, we got our rate cut but the sector did not take off. Is that a reason to worry? Not really. Remember that expectations were for a cut and even 1 50 basis point cut and so most of this was probably already priced into the sector and stocks. I think there would have been […]
August 6th Biotech Update
Well, it looks like there is a fine line between the economy slowing enough to cause rates to go down and the economy slowing so much that the market has a growth panic and has a massive sell off. Obviously, nothing does well in a risk off panic selling and while the sector has been […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
Well, the Fed was not a disaster for the sector and in many ways it worked out well (at least on Fed day). This has generally been a decent week for the sector and while part of that is related to the fundamentals, I still think we are tied to interest rates and the lack […]
April 19th Biotech Update
Well, I wish something would change but we are back in the rut that was most of later year. To be fair, we did eventually break out of that rut but I will continue to be a repeating record. We need rates to break lower. I think things are getting stretched to the downside (in […]
March 1st Biotech Update
It has been a good week, but it has also been quite a quick run. The recent weakness is not necessarily bad if we successfully back test the breakout. The $94-$95 level on the XBI was the upper end of the range and was resistance. We clearly busted above that level this week, but it […]
January 16th Biotech Update
JPM is over and it was an OK conference. It was not the best with deals but there was a big group right before the conference and so all in it was a hefty amount of deals. The conference appeared one of the more upbeat in recent years and that bodes well. I think we […]
November 2nd Biotech Update
The bounce continues but it still is not good enough to break the downtrend. This certainly feels good to be rallying but my base case remains that the trend continues until broken. The trend is down and while I intuitively think we are close to a bottom, I still think we need to be exceptionally […]
August 10th Biotech Update
I am back but my luggage is still on vacation. Hopefully, I will soon learn of its fate and it will find its way home. I need to catch up on the sector trading and will have more remarks on that later but there is more than enough news to keep me busy with reading […]
July 14th Biotech Update
Not a bad week considering where we started. It could look even better with a strong close. To be fair, however, most of the gains this week are basically in one day and the rest has more or less held those gains more than actually built on them. That is why I would prefer to […]
May 2nd Biotech Update
Certainly, a good start to the week. We basically got to the upper end of a range around $83 and I would not be surprised to see that act as a little bit of resistance, although if we are in a bull market it should not last too long. I would like to see us […]
April 24th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week after a couple of bust Mondays with deals. We are getting into earnings seasons and so it is not surprising that we slow as companies get ready to report. I do not think there is anything that will be very compelling or thesis changing in earning and I suspect […]
February 15th Biotech Update
It is not the best start so far to the week but it certainly is not bad. We still have the chance to rally and I am a little encouraged by the market reaction to the hotter than expected CPI numbers. It seems to me more signals that inflation and the Fed are losing their […]
February 13th Biotech Update
Not the greatest way to end the week as we clearly did not get that higher low that was the potential. We still could get a nice little trend, but we cannot get any lower. There is also a potential that we get back to the lower end of the old range, which would make […]
January 25th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for that breakout? Just like last week we are in the position to do so but remember last week we ended up failing. While I am not sure there is any fundamental reason for us to breakout as there is not a ton of new, I do get the sense that […]
April 20th Biotech Update
The sector once again shows it brutal head and what seemed like a nice opportunity to build momentum and excitement to the upside gets reversed. While we have not broken to new lows we are certainly approaching the bottom of what could be seen as a channel. The $80s are going to be critical to […]
September 25 Biotech Update
The sector appears to be gaining some momentum but we need to see the strength continue and ideally broaden. Positive data being rewarded is good as there have been times where positive data got nothing than a quick spike only to be sold later in the day. The IBB is back at the high end […]
March 6 Biotech Update
There is a little bit of news to start the week but nothing that likely seems thesis changing or will have a dramatic impact on sentiment/trends. We are in the tail end of earnings with a drum beat of small caps that might have some impact on the individuals companies but little on the sector. […]
ASH Update: TGTX
ASH 2016 has turned out to be an important convention for many small biotechs, and will likely be remembered as a break-out event for CAR-T therapies. Results from the Phase 1 TGR-1202/Ibrutinib combination study may prove crucial for the future of TG Therapeutics. Escalating doses of TGR-1202 ranged from 400mg to 800mg with a corresponding 420mg of […]
December 22 Biotech Update
It was a weak start to the sector and I suspect that may be a popular start to these notes as the sector seems to have lost some control of pricing power. I am going to spend today talking about the ABBV/ESRX deal as it has significant implications not over for the hep-C market but […]
