The trend is you friend until it is not anymore. We had a nice strong uptrend that appears to have broken. This obviously does not mean that we are moving to the low but that the next direction is not precisely clear. We needed to digest that recent move as it was almost straight up […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
The sector remains strong and we have ASH coming so we could see a run in some names this week. Given the recent strength and the potential run-up (uptrends are prime run-up candidates), I would not be surprised to see a sell the news reaction on ASH data. Expectations are growing with the valuations and […]
November 26 Biotech Update
The trend is your friend and while I expected a news to slow we got an unanticipated surprise. Positive news continues to hit the sector and the trend continues higher. I will never call the end of the trend until it confirmed but we have had a great move and macro has been pretty supportive […]
August 5 Biotech Update
We live in a sea of macro right now. Take your pick. China and trade. China currency. China and the protest in Hong Kong. India and Pakistan over Kashimir. Iran seized another tanker in the Middle East. Russia and US existing from a nuclear arms control treaty. This move lower has been fast and violent […]
October 31 Biotech Update
The sector held onto some of the early gains but not a great finish. I read the retracement more related to broader market weakness on the fears of tax reform rather than an indictment of the bio bounce. Today will be important (assuming broader market is benign) to see whether the bounce has any chance […]
September 26 Biotech Update
We finally got the AXON news and it was pretty decisive. The question now is the impact that it will have on the broader sector. The hope is that enough negative expectations were baked into the stock that the broader impact will be minimal but we need to wait and see how it plays out. […]
September 20 Biotech Update
We are starting to get some meaningful data this week and while I suspect it will have some broader upside today, I will be curious to see if the sector moves and maintains a move. It seems to me that everyone is really wanting to see the AXON data and if any data is going […]
September 5 Biotech Update
A relatively quiet start to the week (at least for the sector). North Korea remains a concern but despite the nuclear test the response of the US and South Korea remains blowing up dirt with their own missiles. At this point the risk that the US has a military response is minimal. Remember that it […]
August 21 Biotech Update
Happy eclipse day. There is little news both in the sector and in the market. This is not necessarily a bad thing as it might give us a sense as to whether there is an underlying bid or offer in the market. Barring any news hitting during the day, I suspect we drift on low […]
July 17 Biotech Update
A little bit of news to start the week but nothing dramatic and still none of the M&A that was supposed to explode this year leading the recovery of the sector. It is starting to look like the next big set of catalysts for the sector will be earnings that are actually starting this week […]
July 7 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be consolidating its previous move although the broader market does not necessarily look that strong. That being said the trend for the sector is higher and outperformance at least in the recent past. I still expect it to test the breakout level at which point everyone will be expecting the levels […]
June 23 Biotech Update
We are finally getting a break in the move higher but it has been quiet impressive. There was less excitement in the move than I would have thought, which I see as a sign that a lot were caught flat footed and felt under-invested (although gauging sentiment from twitter might not be the best idea). […]
June 22 Biotech Update
The sector continues to rocket higher as clearly sentiment has reversed. This run likely has more legs than anyone thinks. The sector has been in a massive bear market and churned sideways for about 18 months. We were barely 5% above the upper end of the range and I saw comments about the sector looking […]
March 24 Biotech Update
Do we have AHCA fatigue yet? It could end today if the House votes no but a yes vote likely means another couple months of debate as it moves to the Senate where it is a non-starter. What is interesting for the broader market is the claim by Trump that he would move on to […]
March 17 Biotech Update
Well, this is not going to be a good day for the sector and that wall at 300 in the IBB is likely safe for now. The key culprit is going to be the AMGN outcomes data, which is a massive disappointment (for anyone outside of AMGN who apparently think it is great). While one […]
March 10 Biotech Update
The sector has been interesting. Given the past 18 months, it feels easy to be bearish on every pullback consolidation but I am incrementally more positive. It is starting to feel more like a pause at an important level of resistance as opposed to the start of a large retracement. Obviously we likely need some […]
March 3 Biotech Update
I think the sector has been rational the past couple of days in that good news is generally moving stocks higher and bad news lower. If there was a broader trend I would say weak but it almost seems out of sync with the broader market. When the broader market rallied the sector lagged and […]
February 27 Biotech Update
I have snuck into work during this Mardi Gras break but not much to write on so this will be a quick update and will likely be back later in the week. 1. ONCS held up better than I thought it would and with the fast track news today and KOL talk tomorrow, I will […]
February 24 Biotech Update
Weakness (sort of) continuing in the sector but perhaps that is simply drifting or consolidation after its recent performance. In either case, it still seems like people are unwilling to fully commit to the sector and my early warning signal of generalist entrance (and likely sustained outperformance) will be outperformance of CELG. That is a […]
February 7 Biotech Update
The sector (and I guess you could argue the market in general) has been pretty dull the past couple of days. During the past year these periods of no news led to a slow grind lower but it seems that the sector is holding up well if not grinding a little higher. It is only […]
