There is not a lot of sector specific news to start the week, although there seems to be some minor news. In these situations the sector tends to follow the broader market with a slight positive bias given that it remains in a bull market. I am a little surprised that there was not a […]
September 29 Biotech Update
The sector is off to a good start but it is a relatively slow news day but the news was certainly good. It will be interesting to see how the sector closes as given the recent strength we have not seen M&A buzz and rumors take off. That is an old bull market staple with […]
A Quick Technical Look At SRPT Full Year Chart
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) Nasdaq A quick look at Sarepta’s yearly chart, from the spike to $63.73 after Exondys-51 FDA approval and the drop to $26.66 lowest point by Dec 30th, the last trading day of 2016. What is important to watch is the big picture, as we are right now above the Fibo-50% retracement […]
SRPT – Preparing For Blast Of Catalysts
Already a year has passed since Sarepta’s first drug Exondys51 was granted FDA approval on 09/19/2016. The landmark decision by Janet Woodcock, despite the review team’s opposition, gave hope to all the kids with DMD (Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy) Exondys51 is in the middle of a great launch, one of the most successful first-year launches of […]
September 6 Biotech Update
We have some more news this morning in the sector that I will focus on today. In terms of generalities, it is nice to see positive news being rewarded and while this seems like a natural state of affairs, there was a time where good news was not rewarded. The ability of positive fundamentals to […]
September 1 Biotech Update
They say that the market never bottoms on a Friday and I wonder if the same is true of topping? The sector has clearly had a strong near term move and is due for a pause but would strength today be the near term top or is there more to go? Over the longer term […]
July 24 Biotech Update
It should be a big week for news but it is starting a little slow, which is not unexpected as the earnings are clustered Tuesday through Thursday. There is some minor news to start the week but it is simply a small appetizer as to what should be a week of news. That being said […]
July 21 Biotech Update
I am back and missed all the fireworks yesterday. This week has gone quite well for the sector in terms of fundamentals and the price action reflected it. We sort of dodge a bullet as continued weakness would have been a significant problem. News will continue next week with the start of the large cap […]
July 18 Biotech Update
There seems to be a negative pattern developing with strength early that gives way to weakness later in the day. This is not totally unexpected given the need to consolidate but it is certainly sending a signal. We have a set of good news last night and this morning and this should be the strongest […]
July 17 Biotech Update
A little bit of news to start the week but nothing dramatic and still none of the M&A that was supposed to explode this year leading the recovery of the sector. It is starting to look like the next big set of catalysts for the sector will be earnings that are actually starting this week […]
May 26 Biotech Update
There is no news to speak of so I want to end the week with some broader sector commentary. There are some broader undercurrents that seem to be continuing and it seems to be producing an odd effect on the sector. 1. The first point on the sector is that this is about as frustrated […]
May 4 Biotech Update
It looks like a vote is set for TrumpCare in the House and while it will be close I lean towards it passing. Congress is heading towards a recess so I suspect many republicans are going to vote to give Trump a win. It is a low cost vote as it will not pass the […]
April 28 Biotech Update
A lot has happened in terms of news in the sector, although there is nothing that was thesis changing. There are some new potential trends to watch but at this point I think most of the news was more or less incremental. I will flesh out more of the ideas in the coming days but […]
April 25 Biotech Update
The market continues to have a tail wind as France and North Korean risks are being removed (although not sure we are quite out of the woods on North Korea but could be relatively soon). The sector seems to be participating a little more today, which is a positive sign but as I noted yesterday […]
April 24 Biotech Update
The market is surging and is dragging the sector higher with it. It seems to me that the sector is not doing particularly well given the new risk on environment but it is also not doing exceptionally poor. We had a large M&A announcement but it was med tech so we are still waiting for […]
Dave Trading – April 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
March 8 Biotech Update
I was not too busy to write yesterday but there was really nothing that I could find that was interesting enough to write about. I looked for something and there was a big lack of company specific news and that is the case today as well. We are a little too early to talk about […]
March 3 Biotech Update
I think the sector has been rational the past couple of days in that good news is generally moving stocks higher and bad news lower. If there was a broader trend I would say weak but it almost seems out of sync with the broader market. When the broader market rallied the sector lagged and […]
March 1 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news the past couple of days but certainly some interesting events to talk about. I will focus on two but more generally the sector is doing well. There seems to be some more interest in the sector and the move in CELG might be that early warning signal of generalist interest […]
February 27 Biotech Update
I have snuck into work during this Mardi Gras break but not much to write on so this will be a quick update and will likely be back later in the week. 1. ONCS held up better than I thought it would and with the fast track news today and KOL talk tomorrow, I will […]
