We got a clear result from the election and it seems clear (at least initially) that the market approves. I would not say that there is a clear breakout for the sector but we are at the area where one can start thinking that it is breaking out. I still think RFK could be an […]
July 2nd Biotech Update
It was a good start to yesterday morning but we got weaker as the day went on. I still think the sector is not in a bad position but I do not like to see the strength in the morning and weakness as the day went on. It is only one day and the volume […]
June 26th Biotech Update
I should leave more often as the sector has done OK in my absence. For good or ill, I am back and hopefully we can keep this strength and establish a more clear trend to the upside. I think there is more work to be done but we are at least in a position in […]
May 10th Biotech Update
Not the best of weeks but also not the worst of weeks. It would have been ideal to get some momentum to the upside but grinding volume at this level is not awful for the longer term. Of course, if the next move is significantly lower then this ends up being a level of resistance […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
Well, the Fed was not a disaster for the sector and in many ways it worked out well (at least on Fed day). This has generally been a decent week for the sector and while part of that is related to the fundamentals, I still think we are tied to interest rates and the lack […]
March 13th Biotech Update
Well, we are no longer hanging at the higher levels and my original thought that we would test the upper end of the previous range was correct. We are getting close and perhaps the intraday low the other day was the test, but we are pretty close. It is probably a reasonable time to be […]
March 1st Biotech Update
It has been a good week, but it has also been quite a quick run. The recent weakness is not necessarily bad if we successfully back test the breakout. The $94-$95 level on the XBI was the upper end of the range and was resistance. We clearly busted above that level this week, but it […]
February 20th Biotech Update
We are very close to breaking out on the XBI. One more very strong day or a couple days of strength would be enough. I think the charts are not that overbought and so we have a decent chance to sustain the breakout but one could also look at the chart and see a clear […]
November 6th Biotech Update
Well, that was quite the week and end to the week. Why the sudden strong end to the week on top of a good week? The economy was weaker than expected. We are not close to a recession, but the data came in weaker than expected, which means rates could have peaked and the rising […]
October 31st Spooky Biotech Update
We had a nice start to the week and I thought we would have enough momentum to keep it going but the SRPT news might throw some cold water on the rally. Or it might be seen a specific enough to SRPT to not stop too much. This is actually a good signal as to […]
September 27th Biotech Update
Yesterday was a better day. The market was weak and yet the sector outperformed. That is quite the rare occasion. It had been such a brutal month, there was bound to be a day in which the selling eased. There was some news that could have driven the outperformance but was that simply an excuse […]
May 25th Biotech Update
The sector is in an odd position. We sort of made a higher high when we got to the $90 level, which would generally be good but we ended that day way off the highs and then followed up with a weak day. Generally, I would look at that as a failed breakout and a […]
May 15th Biotech Update
A strong start to the week, which is good as there is not a ton of news to be driving the move. We did end the week with some good news but it is a relatively quiet start and the move higher bodes well. I often like to see how the sector trades without news […]
May 11th Biotech Update
Can we make a little run to the $90 level on the XBI? We got some nice momentum and that seems a reasonable spot for a pause that refreshes but it has been a pretty strong move higher that could pause at any point. May has been a very strong month and we are close […]
April 14th Biotech Update
A sleepy week sort of flipped in one day with both drama and action. We have pushed right up to the $80 level in the XBI which could act as some resistance but it will be interesting to see if the strength of yesterday can push through. From the bullish perspective, the ideal scenario would […]
April 10th Biotech Update
Treading water? While it might not seem like it, the sector could be bouncing around support levels and perhaps even setting up a new range between $75 and $78. If that looks like a pretty tight range to you, I think you are right and the upper end might be closer to $80 and the […]
March 17th Biotech Update
Volatility continues as questions around banks both at home and abroad remain. The actions to support a number of banks has also been met with a lukewarm response. There were initially a positive reaction but that has seen tapered off as questions remain both on the individual banks, the banking system, the economy, and the […]
March 1st Biotech (and Energy) Update
Well, well, well. A lot happened in the neuro space where there was concerns that it would become significantly more restrictive but I think that is off the table. Is the sector in a better place? I think so as there are a set of broader overhangs that I think it has to work through. […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
It is a New Year and two paths diverge in the sector. One would be an unprecedented third year in a row of decline and the second would be the first up year after back to back declines. I am going to use the next couple days to delineate my predictions for 2023. LLY […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Prediction reviews)
We end the year hopefully on an up note but nothing has really changed about the sector. We are range bound and a drifting in the range. The length of time spent in this range really makes it into really strong support or resistance for the move. It makes me think that when we do […]
