Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking). Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher. The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB. The IBB had made new […]
April 27th Biotech Update
A new week and it is off to a good start. One debate I often have with myself is whether or not the bottom is in. It is an important question but really unknowable at this point. If HCQ or remdisivr or some other drug comes out as a reasonable treatment for COVID between now […]
December 10 Biotech Update
It seems like the sector might breakout and run yesterday morning but it came back to reality in the afternoon. While it would have been nice to see a run, the pullback does not change the trend. Perhaps we will now see a little weakness and pullback to higher lows (as had been the case) […]
May 3 Biotech Update
The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]
February 21 Biotech Update
Resistance is acting like resistance. It looked early that we might be peaking above it but clearly that is not the case. These sort of false breakouts (and breakdowns) are killers in range bound markets as it can get one to trade too early. My mantra in these scenarios is that the sector will be […]
October 25 Biotech Update
Yesterday was brutal and there is really little to say about it as we are clearly in the middle of a massive correction if not outright bear market. I suspect that we are closer to the end than the beginning but that does not mean we could not see another 10% lower from these levels […]
March 12 Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week thanks to the weekend news. I thought there would be a little more price action after the news but it is still early and perhaps this just signals how far PCSK9 has moved from investor interest. In any case, there are some interesting pin actions from the news. 1. […]
January 30 Biotech Update
The sector remains strong. The market has weakened a little but the sector was still holding on. If the broader market weakness continues, it will eventually drag down the sector but that has not happened yet. Of course, a bit of a pullback is well overdue and will happen eventually but the trigger and timing […]
January 22 Biotech Update (Merger Monday Edition)
The M&A smoke turned into fire as we had two deals to start the week. This was supposed to be the slow Monday of what will be a busy week with earnings but we started off strong with two large deals. I will focus on these deals and there implications for the companies and the […]
July 11 Biotech Update
We are getting some news at least but nothing that is thesis changing but perhaps just enough to move the needle for the sector but that is to be determined. I want to touch on some of the more broadly applicable news that happened in the past 24 hours. 1. Perhaps the most important news […]
June 13 Biotech Update
It is days like this that show why the sector cannot have nice things (as the saying goes). We seemed to be getting some traction and were approaching what has been strong resistance and we get hit with bad news. I said it before and I will say it again, I think people are attributing […]
June 1 Biotech Update
The sector sort of had some positive news yesterday with TSRO putting itself on the proverbial block. This obviously moved TSRO and sector as it reminded people that good things might happen as well. Given that this was meaningful for the sector (and the lack of other news) I want to focus on a couple […]
May 4 Biotech Update
It looks like a vote is set for TrumpCare in the House and while it will be close I lean towards it passing. Congress is heading towards a recess so I suspect many republicans are going to vote to give Trump a win. It is a low cost vote as it will not pass the […]
April 28 Biotech Update
A lot has happened in terms of news in the sector, although there is nothing that was thesis changing. There are some new potential trends to watch but at this point I think most of the news was more or less incremental. I will flesh out more of the ideas in the coming days but […]
April 25 Biotech Update
The market continues to have a tail wind as France and North Korean risks are being removed (although not sure we are quite out of the woods on North Korea but could be relatively soon). The sector seems to be participating a little more today, which is a positive sign but as I noted yesterday […]
April 24 Biotech Update
The market is surging and is dragging the sector higher with it. It seems to me that the sector is not doing particularly well given the new risk on environment but it is also not doing exceptionally poor. We had a large M&A announcement but it was med tech so we are still waiting for […]
March 20 Biotech Update
Another week and another attempt at the 300 level on the IBB and another week with no real M&A. We are still dealing with the aftermath of the AMGN data and while there seems to be some recovery, I want to spend today talking about a potential implication that seems to have been flying under […]
January 6 Biotech Update
News continues to come in (both expected and unexpected) and the sector remains strong into JPM. Usually there is a tailwind JPM week that can last a little but eventually all the secondaries that come after JPM stall the momentum. Last year was obviously an exception to that pattern but it seems (at least so […]
December 16 Biotech Update
I am back from jury duty and will try and catch up on the events of this week but will continue that next week before the holiday break. The trading in the sector seems to have been volatile in that there seems to have been no real movement but some twists and turns to get […]
July 29 Biotech Update
The news is slowing down a little this week but the earnings continue for the large caps. So far as a group the earnings look good indicating solid fundamentals with the companies. The stocks have been reacting well and the sector has been moving higher and outperforming. This move higher raises the bar for the […]
