I suspected that we would have paused this week but the sector has had a nice continuation this week despite hitting what I thought would have been natural resistance. That is a nice sign of strength but I still think the sector is a little extended in the immediate term and likely needs a to […]
December 1st Biotech Update
We the news that we needed to really push the sector higher with a large oncology deal. Now the move is good to see and certainly adds some nice momentum to the sector but ideally we would want that to last a couple of days. One day spike higher and then giving it back over […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
The market is not doing well with rates moving higher still and we all know what that means for the sector. It looks like yet another day with generally positive news in the sector and yet we will not be able to move higher. I feel like we are at the stage where everyone is […]
October 20th Biotech Update
When the market zigs when the information zags, it sends a strong signal. That was why I think PFE put in a bottom when they massively cut revenue guidance but ended up green. Last night was a set of good news for the sector (not massively so but certainly important news) and so we should […]
September 22nd, Biotech Update
I thought we were heading to these levels and unfortunately we made it. This certainly needs to hold because the next real support ends up being around $62. The whole market is weak an so this is not necessarily an XBI issue but we have been in a bear market for multiple years and seemingly […]
September 18th Biotech Update
So we stopped the clear downtrend when we made the move to $81 but all that did was stop us from having a lower high (we basically made it to the previous high of the downtrend). I think it is pretty clear that we are not able to start an uptrend and we are going […]
June 20th Biotech Update
Not the best way to end a week but we are at what could be a level of support and I talked about this possibility. It was not the less stressful version of setting up a bullish trend but heading down to these current levels and using it as a support to a move to […]
May 16th Biotech Update
The sector absolutely cannot catch a break. Everything was looking good and solid and now the proverbial rug has been pulled out. There is no recovering today. It will be red but the broader move is not done (at least it does not have to be). I think as long as this pullback stays above […]
May 1st Biotech Update
After taking a one week break from a merger Monday we are back at it. The lack of M&A was an explanation in previous years for the sector underperformance but that cannot be said this year as it has accelerated. Yes, there could be other reasons for underperformance but bull markets climb walls of worry […]
April 17th Biotech Update
Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run. It failed but today is certainly different. The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level. […]
March 13th Biotech Update
Quite the start to the week and it would be quite disappointing if all the news does not get at least a snap back rally in the sector but there are a lot of moving parts. We have both major macro news as well as sector (and portfolio) news and I will cover them on […]
March 1st Biotech (and Energy) Update
Well, well, well. A lot happened in the neuro space where there was concerns that it would become significantly more restrictive but I think that is off the table. Is the sector in a better place? I think so as there are a set of broader overhangs that I think it has to work through. […]
January 17th Biotech Update
Is this the moment of truth for the sector? Do we finally break out of the range and do so to the upside? We are at the upper end of the range with some good momentum and so this is probably the best chance we have had in awhile. To be clear I am not […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
December 1st Biotech Update
Not surprised by the positive day given the news. Positive clinical data. M&A interests. Add in seasonality and it was a nice constellation of events. I wonder what happens later in the month as we get closer to tax loss selling. This is a sector that certainly has its share of tax loss selling potential […]
October 17th Biotech Update
Another week and another set of worries but the macro environment is about the same. We have the Fed and interest rates (and tied into that are the inflation numbers and potential recession caused by the rising rates). We also have the international political risks and this includes the war in Ukraine and do not […]
September 14th Biotech Update
Well, that was not a great day. Interest rates and risk off are not kind to the sector. As long as we can hold support I think we will be fine. I am not convinced that this is going to be a large and sustained sell off as opposed to a quick adjustment. I get […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Today is going to be a macro day. The CPI data was a little too hot for the market. While I think we have likely seen peak inflation, it probably takes time for it to really cool down and likely involves more rate hikes and a slowing down of the economy (if not recession). The […]
September 8th Biotech Update
Sorry for the little break. I am hopefully back and at it. The sector has not done great but it does not look too bad either. There have been lower lows and lower highs, which signals a clear downtrend but it seems to have been pretty orderly and we are now back to the old […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but that is not necessarily bad. The sector has been strong and there has been nothing to change it. I think the biggest news has been outside the sector with the decline in the Empire State index, but I imagine that might not been a massive surprise (perhaps the […]
