It is a strong start to the week (broader market) with the sector trudging along higher. There are some very strong moves under the surface but those are both higher and lower, so the net impact is a more modest move in the indices. A small move higher after a medical conference is a win […]
July 19 Biotech Update
The sector got a big boost from VRTX last night. If it cannot rally off of this news, then buckle your seatbelts and hedge your positions as there is unlikely to be better news anytime soon. The only large catalyst that could match this impact would be a home run for MYSTIC or AXON crushing […]
June 22 Biotech Update
The sector continues to rocket higher as clearly sentiment has reversed. This run likely has more legs than anyone thinks. The sector has been in a massive bear market and churned sideways for about 18 months. We were barely 5% above the upper end of the range and I saw comments about the sector looking […]
June 21 Biotech Update
Biotech is clearly back. We appear to be breaking out of the range with perhaps broadening participation and increasing volume. I am not a technician but this is looking good. There is not a lot of news but I wanted to touch on a couple of quick points and make this a relatively short note. […]
June 12 Biotech Update
Another slow start to the week with little news and no M&A. The sector did end last week outperforming a falling market and that is continuing today (weak market with relative strength in biotech). That is a good sign but there is very little chance that the sector could hold up in a more severe […]
May 31 Biotech Update
No news continues this week and now we are in a low volume bounce mode. It is unclear if it will hold but it might as it was not as if there was a ton of selling pressure that moved stocks lower. It seems more of a buyer strike than a real concerted effort to […]
May 17 Biotech Update
We have an interesting morning and likely next couple days of trading. The proximate cause of the selling is the continuing and escalating crisis with the Trump administration. While predicting what happens next is a fool’s errand with this administration, it really is starting the look like the endgame is either impeachment, war (started to […]
April 4 Biotech Update
The sector had a little bit of a down draft late yesterday and I suspect that it is related to the news that TrumpCare may not be dead. Clearly there are actions being held to revive the legislation but we are likely a year plus from any real passage even if they are able to […]
March 29 Biotech Update
Yesterday was the opposite of my market thesis but perhaps that was related to the new talk about healthcare reform not being dead. I would slightly increase the odds that a new bill is introduced and perhaps passed in the House but it would have to be significantly different to pass the Senate and that […]
March 20 Biotech Update
Another week and another attempt at the 300 level on the IBB and another week with no real M&A. We are still dealing with the aftermath of the AMGN data and while there seems to be some recovery, I want to spend today talking about a potential implication that seems to have been flying under […]
January 6 Biotech Update
News continues to come in (both expected and unexpected) and the sector remains strong into JPM. Usually there is a tailwind JPM week that can last a little but eventually all the secondaries that come after JPM stall the momentum. Last year was obviously an exception to that pattern but it seems (at least so […]
November 21 Biotech Update
An exciting return to the sector for me and I mean that sarcastically. Not really much to talk about heading into this Thanksgiving week and I would not be surprised if the only news we see this week is from companies trying to sneak out bad news. Volume should be low with drifting price action […]
November 11 Biotech Update
The sector momentum continued and there is no reason to expect it will end soon. Of course, nothing goes straight up but as I noted before there are numerous tailwinds and if we can hit on the year end catalysts, then it could actually accelerate higher in the next couple months. So what could be […]
November 1 Biotech Update
We have more of the same with basically solid fundamental reports but certainly not perfect and I suspect it will lead to another day lower with the outperformer that will likely fade tomorrow. Despite heading into earnings season with low expectations, awful sentiment, and a large sell off, the market has chosen to focus on […]
October 31 Biotech Update
There is nothing that seems to help the sector. The clear sentiment headwind is the election and that is certainly plausible. A non-democratic sweep of the presidency, senate, and house should be good for the sector. Of course, everyone expects that so usually when everyone expects something the market does not act in that way. […]
September 30 Biotech Update
Well, a couple days can make a difference. The sector has been hit by renewed pricing concerns (people suddenly realize that voters in California might vote to lower their drug prices), some negative biotech headlines, and a broader market that suddenly thinks we are having another Lehman moment (probably the 20th Lehman moment since the […]
June 8 Biotech Update
Yesterday was surprisingly good, although so far we have not really had a nice follow through to start today. That being said the rally started to pick up steam later in the day, so perhaps we will follow the same pattern. If we continue to trade well in lieu of the negative news yesterday, then […]
May 5 Biotech Update
We saw more of the same selling yesterday. It was across the market but it certainly felt like the sector led to the downside and failed to bounce when the market came back a little. Today is off to a better start but at this point I am not sure anyone thinks it will stick […]
April 1 Biotech Update
Yesterday was generally a good day for the sector but it is hard to feel particularly good about it. We certainly need more time to see if this is another rally that leads to additionally dumping of positions. We have been waiting for catalysts that would turn the sector but that is probably a false […]
March 9 Biotech Update
Yesterday was certainly a blast from the past with small caps getting crushed and large caps outperforming but only because they are down less than SMID. After the recent run it is not surprising that the run pauses and reverses at resistance. As one could imagine the bears will highlight this as the start of […]
