What kills bulls runs in the sector? News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end. Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end. We […]
April 29th Biotech Update
Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking). Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher. The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB. The IBB had made new […]
April 27th Biotech Update
A new week and it is off to a good start. One debate I often have with myself is whether or not the bottom is in. It is an important question but really unknowable at this point. If HCQ or remdisivr or some other drug comes out as a reasonable treatment for COVID between now […]
February 26th Biotech Update
First, I apologize for the emails last night. We all received them as well and no one understands why quite yet. We are looking into it right now and hopefully it was a simple one time glitch. We now have had two big down days in a row and is starting to put some fear […]
February 25 Biotech Update
Today will be interesting for the markets. As I noted, the market has trained most to buy the dips and big sell-offs are followed by new highs. The gap up this morning could all but confirm that we are no longer in that type of market. If the gap turns into a gap and go, […]
November 5th Biotech Update
Let us see if the trend is our friend. We hit what should be some resistance and have stalled. Previously, this led to a day or two of a shallow pullback followed by a push to new highs. We are in the second day of a potential pullback so we should be setting up for […]
October 9th Biotech Update
We are potentially setting up well for the sector. Yesterday was a down day but was that the pullback to consolidate the bounce and start a trend higher? Maybe. We need to get over recent highs around $78 on the XBI and while we do not need that today we probably need to at least […]
August 15 Biotech Update
While the macro has been major the past couple of days, the sector specific news has been pretty sparse. I was hoping something interesting would happen to write about but there really is nothing major. It does make it a little easier to trade in that we will be sucked up in the macro maelstrom […]
August 7 Biotech Update
Are we in the process of bottoming? Perhaps. The sector still cannot get the moves it deserves based on the fundamental news that has come the past couple of weeks. What will be most telling is when the macro fades and market rallies, does the sector outperform? In other words, have people noticed the good […]
August 5 Biotech Update
We live in a sea of macro right now. Take your pick. China and trade. China currency. China and the protest in Hong Kong. India and Pakistan over Kashimir. Iran seized another tanker in the Middle East. Russia and US existing from a nuclear arms control treaty. This move lower has been fast and violent […]
July 24 Biotech Update
I am a little surprised that there was not more movement from the Senate drug pricing plan (which was later supported by the president). We finally have the outlines of what drug pricing reform will look like over the next couple years and it is generally good for the sector but there was limited reaction. […]
April 9 Biotech Update
A pretty slow start to the week. The sector underperformed yesterday and is red today but doing a little better than the broader market. We are at an interesting spot. It is not clear whether we broke through the upper end of a range last week or whether we have hit resistance and will reverse […]
October 25 Biotech Update
Yesterday was brutal and there is really little to say about it as we are clearly in the middle of a massive correction if not outright bear market. I suspect that we are closer to the end than the beginning but that does not mean we could not see another 10% lower from these levels […]
August 16th Biotech Update
The sector was pretty weak yesterday but remained in its range. While there is nothing to dissuade me from the summer chop, there are some warning signs. First, we are close to breaking through the support on both the XBI and IBB. Second, the early morning bounce was quickly sold. Obviously it remains early but […]
August 6 Biotech Update
A slow start to the week in which there are a lot of earnings calls but likely nothing to change the course of the sector. That has already been set by the large caps and we still need them to stay within striking distance of news highs if not break through them this week. It […]
June 6 Biotech Update
The sector did a little better yesterday but given the strength of the market, it is not a great performance. That being said another couple days in the green and perhaps this year will be different and we will not see the post-ASCO selloff. Obviously it is early but something to keep an eye on […]
March 12 Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week thanks to the weekend news. I thought there would be a little more price action after the news but it is still early and perhaps this just signals how far PCSK9 has moved from investor interest. In any case, there are some interesting pin actions from the news. 1. […]
March 9 Biotech Update
The market is certainly providing a better backdrop and the sector is doing well in response. At this point the trend is your friend, although as I noted the other day there is some froth in certain portions of the market. 1. The big news coming is the REGN PCSK9 outcomes trial data this weekend. […]
November 27 Biotech Update
Perhaps we are in the calm before the storm or people are still recovering from their Thanksgiving meals but the sector is off to a slow start to the week. Trading last week was not too bad even it was on low volume. We have one last potential catalyst this year with ASH coming soon […]
November 7 Biotech Update
Some news to start the day but nothing particularly thesis changing. The sector seemed to hold onto to some of its gains yesterday but more or less a treading water day. The next real sentiment test with perhaps fundamental news would be ASH in early December and perhaps we simply drift between now and then. […]
