November 11th Biotech Update

Below are my comments on the guidelines that you can forward along.   So it looks like the market has digested the outcome of the election for the most part.  I still think there is going to be a tug of war in terms of COVID with the vaccine news pushing the post-COVID names but […]

November 9th Biotech Update

We do not have merger Monday, so I suspect the market will be disappointed.  I joke of course as this is going to be a massive relief rally on the news of the PFE vaccine.  While there will certainly be a rally that raises almost everyone, there will likely be rotations out of COVID treatment […]

October 28th Biotech Update

Not a great start to the week (or continuation of the week) as the market and sector continue to struggle.  Given all of the potential news makers in the next couple weeks it is difficult to completely attribute the move solely to one factor.  My mantra has been that the trend is your friend and […]

October 1st Biotech Update

The sector has been a grind this week in that it appears unable to move higher but also is not breaking down at all.  Every rally appears to be sold or unable to get any real traction (the open today is a perfect example in that it looks like we could have a good day […]

September 9th Biotech Update

Yesterday could have been worse and it could have been better.  It seemed like we were going to get a real nice bounce and perhaps even get to green but it seemed to stall at the end of the day.  So when all was said and done it was basically a day that had a […]

August 21st Biotech Update

Nothing too exciting to end the week.  It seems like the $109 level on the XBI remains good support and now that we have bounced of that level we seem to be treading water.  So far $115 appears to be acting as resistance so a strong move higher probably needs to show a clear break […]

August 6th Biotech Update

The sector came close to getting above recent highs but seemed to touch them and then pullback.  It was not necessarily a bad day for the sector but also did not quite break the potential downtrend.  There seems to be some positive news last night and this morning, so perhaps that will be enough to […]

July 15th Biotech Update

I think it is clear now that it was COVID that worried the market earlier this week.  The reaction to the vaccine news has been pretty clear and positive.  While it is possible that the market would have had a similar reaction if the selloff was China driven, it seems more likely that worries about […]

July 13th Biotech Update

It seems as if the news is really starting to dry up as we get closer to earnings seasons (plus the usual summer doldrums is probably also having an effect).  I expected at least some news to start the week but there really is not much which likely means the sector will follow any macro […]

July 1st Biotech Update

The market seems to be a little indecisive at this point.  We are getting some moves but nothing that seems sustained and only to be reversed to the other side.  At this point, it seems the sector has retested the breakout levels and all else being equal should be setup for a continued move higher.  […]

June 24th Biotech Update

Clearly we have a breakout in the sector.  The next phase will be the retest of the breakout and the old resistance should act as new support.  How far do we run until the retest?  I would think that we are probably closer to the start of that retest than continued moves higher but we […]

June 16th Biotech Update

Interesting market.  It seemed clear that the sell off was COVID related as we saw the vaccine names as well as the PPE names outperform (and remain green) during the recent selling.  In my mind that added some support to the idea that the support levels in the market might not hold.  Yesterday we saw […]

June 11th Biotech Update

Still not a lot to talk about but the market is starting to feel heavy.  That being said we remain rangebound in the sector.  Sure we are getting these swings and significant red days but we still are basically trading sideways.  This is not true for the broader market that seems more like a top […]

June 2 Biotech Update

The market held up well yesterday and so far this morning.  Perhaps I am alone in finding this an odd strength given all the issues and it leads to the question of who is buying the market at these level and fundamental context?  Long term value investors?  Unlikely as we know Buffet is not buying.  […]

June 1st Biotech Update

With all that is going on in the country this weekend it seems odd that we are basically opening up flat.  Riots.  COVID.  China tensions.  Any of those you would think would be enough to weaken the market and yet the market open relatively resilient.  Of course, it remains early and we could easily weaken […]

May 19th Biotech Update

What kills bulls runs in the sector?  News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end.  Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end.  We […]

May 15th Biotech Update

It seems a fight/indecision in the sector right now.  It remains right at the breakout level unable to move higher to confirm the breakout or move lower to reinforce the level as resistance.  It still seems to be doing modestly better than the broader markets but there seems clear indecision at this level and at […]

April 29th Biotech Update

Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking).  Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher.  The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB.  The IBB had made new […]

April 13th Biotech Update

A mixed start to the week, which seems fitting given the technical analysis that Joe published last night. I highly recommend that you read it as it lays out the next move in the market and I agree that we seem to be at a decision point.  Perhaps we do not get the decision this […]

January 28 Biotech Update

The sector bounced right where you would expect, which is a positive sign. I am still not convinced that it is setting up well for the near term but you have to respect that it bounced right where support should have existed. This actually sets up for some clarity going forward. If those lows are […]