It continues to be a benign week of trading the sector. I think the context matters in that given the underperformance even slow neutral weeks feels worse than it is. We are waiting for that solid move to the upside given how long and far the sector has underperformed. While it is tedious to have […]
September 20th Biotech Update
Not a good start to the week for the markets and it seems related to the Evergrande, which is China’s second largest real estate company that looks on the verge of going bankrupt. The story is pretty typical with a property developer using too much leverage to grow too fast and get involve in unnecessary […]
September 17th Biotech Update
The sector sort of had that reversal yesterday but it honestly did not seem particularly strong. We are red this morning so perhaps we can get a stronger reversal today to really put in that higher low but the sector seems a little weak. I would have thought we would have at least gotten a […]
September 9th Biotech Update
The low of yesterday got us into the $130 range on the XBI and this could be the place where the chart resets and we place that higher low. There is nothing that can happen today to definitively put in that higher low (well, I guess if we get above $137 and set a higher […]
September 3rd Biotech Update
It seems clear to me that we have broken out of the range and have a nice little uptrend going on. We still have to have a pullback that resets the short term stochastics and allows us to put in a higher low (and then followed by a higher high). When that happens it will […]
September 1st Biotech Update
I am back, although I am lucky to have power as most of Baton Rouge is still without power (which means without AC when the heat index is over 100 degrees). I have not been able to follow the sector too closely but it looks like we are having a nice little breakout with some […]
August 23rd Biotech Update
What is happening? Do we actually have M&A that could be more broadly meaningful for the sector? I think we might actually have had one. Obviously we need to see how the sector ultimately reacts to the deal but it is setup as being really good for the sector and not just for one day […]
August 18th Biotech Update
Not a ton of more that is going on in the sector. It was certainly nice to see the green but we really need that momentum to continue. I still think the sector is best described as either range bound or potentially starting a new downtrend. I lean towards the range bound but it also […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Not a lot of news and the sector is in a precarious spot. It had a chance to breakout and start to form a new bull trend but it failed. That failure does not mean a new bear trend but it did mean a test of the recent lows, which is where we are today. […]
August 13th Biotech Update
Today could be a day of decision in terms of the sector (and some stocks). The XBI seems to have a little pennant forming and it would be nice to see a breakout over the $130 level where that should lead to a continuation next week. Of course, there is still some room for indecision […]
August 12th Biotech Update
I painted such a nice story yesterday with a setup that was going to move us higher into a long awaited uptrend and then the sector did what the sector has been doing all year. I still think we are setup to get a bull market going but nothing is going to be easy for […]
August 11th Biotech Update
Low key, I think the sector might be turning the corner. I am not convinced and there is work to be done but the XBI looks like it could be setting up higher lows and, if we get above $130, higher highs. I think at the very least the clear downtrend has become a lot […]
July 30th Biotech Update
Unfortunately we were unable to string together some momentum for the sector. It could have be worse but ideally we would have built on some of our earlier strength this week as opposed to bounce around with some weakness mixed with the strength. It is not surprising given the downtrend we have established but there […]
July 29th Biotech Update
The sector got the bounce yesterday and we really need it to continue for at least a couple of days. It is not clear if this was simply a technical bounce or related to the generally positive earnings but it is certainly nice to see and will be better if it is not a single […]
July 28th Biotech Update
I think we should at the point where we can start to expect at least a dead cat bounce (and perhaps if we are lucky an actual reversal but I would not hold my breadth for that). I would have thought a turnaround Tuesday would have been in order but not quite. We are entering […]
July 26th Biotech Update
It should be a busy week with some earnings and the Fed meeting. Of course there is nothing to start the week so we are back to the negative bias in the sector, which is not surprising. I still think the path of least resistance at this point is lower but with the potential of […]
July 23rd Biotech Update
There is nothing yesterday that has dissuaded me of my negative view of the sector. It is always possible that the downtrend ends but my mantra is always that assume trends remain until proven otherwise. As such my base case (until shown otherwise) is that the sector is going to making its way to a […]
July 22nd Biotech Update
I am back and it is going to take a little bit of time for me to catch up and get a sense of what the sector has been doing. It seems like I took vacation at the right time as I did not have to see the downtrend that appears to have developed. When […]
July 9th Biotech Update
I would have thought the sector would have provided us with a more clear signal as to its next move but I look at the sector right now and see both upside and downside potential. Clearly we broke below the recent lows and potentially ruined a clear uptrend but if we are able to set […]
June 14th Biotech Update
Well, we do not have any buyouts but there is some partnership news. I am not sure that will be enough to juice the sector but it is likely enough to continue the momentum to the $140/$141 level in the XBI. Assuming we make it there, there should be some sort of pause/pullback to reset […]
