After taking a one week break from a merger Monday we are back at it. The lack of M&A was an explanation in previous years for the sector underperformance but that cannot be said this year as it has accelerated. Yes, there could be other reasons for underperformance but bull markets climb walls of worry […]
April 17th Biotech Update
Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run. It failed but today is certainly different. The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level. […]
March 15th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the day. It seems like banks are taking a hit (and not just the regionals but even the too big to fail variety) and as long as the market perceives a banking crisis, it will be difficult for the market to rally. To be fair when you have two of […]
March 14th Biotech Update
Inflation came within expectations (with expectations that it continues to slowly cool although it still remains high). I think the 50 bps hike is completely off the table at this point and I would lean towards a pause over the 25 bps hike. I am not as aggressive in thinking that the Fed pauses but […]
March 13th Biotech Update
Quite the start to the week and it would be quite disappointing if all the news does not get at least a snap back rally in the sector but there are a lot of moving parts. We have both major macro news as well as sector (and portfolio) news and I will cover them on […]
March 3rd Biotech Update
I am a little torn by the market and sector at this point. Part of me sees the recent weakness and pullback as a natural consolidation and part of me sees it the start of the last major downside related to the rate hike cycle. Expectations of rates have increased and I keep going back […]
March 1st Biotech (and Energy) Update
Well, well, well. A lot happened in the neuro space where there was concerns that it would become significantly more restrictive but I think that is off the table. Is the sector in a better place? I think so as there are a set of broader overhangs that I think it has to work through. […]
February 1st Biotech Update
Yesterday was an interesting day. I took a step back and looked at the chart and while you might think I am crazy, if you squint in the right way it looks like we have already broken out. Maybe. If we use $87 as the top of the range, then we broke above it on […]
January 30th Biotech Update
I feel like a broken record as we start yet another week with the potential to break out to the upside but not the best start in that attempt. There is not a lot to cover today, so it will be quick but we do have earnings that could be an excuse for the move […]
January 27th Biotech Update
The sector is teasing us. I thought this week had the potential to see a breakout and we are right at the levels. It would be nice to see a clear move above resistance and then a back test in the next week or two to confirm. We have earnings upcoming and that will either […]
January 20th Biotech Update
We had our chance but the trend has remained our friend and we remain stuck in the range. It was not unexpected but still a little disappointing as it would have been nice to get that breakout. I do not think it makes a breakdown more likely but the grind in the range continues and […]
January 18th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week but to be honest, it is not surprising that we get some weakness as we were stretched to the top of the trading range. I still would not rule out of break this week but the chart probably needed to reset the overbought conditions in the near term. […]
January 17th Biotech Update
Is this the moment of truth for the sector? Do we finally break out of the range and do so to the upside? We are at the upper end of the range with some good momentum and so this is probably the best chance we have had in awhile. To be clear I am not […]
January 10th Biotech Update
A rough start to the week. I suspect it was a combination of a little bit of underwhelming JPM news and worries about the Fed and Macro. Yes, there were deals and data and generally the news out of JPM was good but there was nothing that was ground breaking or thesis changing (in a […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
December 12th Biotech Update
I think we are clearly in the range given the news flow and the market reaction. It is not necessarily bad but I think one has to play the range until shown otherwise. This has been a pretty long time in the range and so the break out (up or down) should be pretty clear […]
December 8th Biotech Update
It was basically a flat day but certainly some movers beneath the surface. I think the relatively flat market did not reflect the large moves in some of the news. We seem to be ending the year with news and even more news. While not all of it has been good, there is enough good […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
We remain in a range, although there certainly seems to be a pattern with the larger caps outperforming. As I have noted many times, I suspect that if generalists are going to enter the sector they will first do it through the large caps and then down the capital structure to SMID. We need generalists […]
September 29th Biotech Update
As much as we had a good day early this week, the market looks really tenuous. I have seen some statistics about position that look quite bullish (i.e. investors are extremely under-invested) but I have also seen some statistics that show the interest rates have move very fast and the market needs to catch up […]
August 8th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and it should continue the momentum for the sector. While I think we still can move on the news, it is also the case that the sector has had a nice run recently. Nothing goes up (or down forever) and the longer the run, the better the news has […]
