I suspect that the sector could be on pace to a nice recovery this week. Vivek comments this weekend and the FDA commissioner nominee may has allayed some concerns about the incoming administration and their relationship with the sector. I am not completely convinced about anything at this point but what I see it is […]
October 29th Biotech Update
Tell me if you have heard this before but the sector appears to be range bound. There is nothing that has happened to indicate anything other than a range bound market, On the positive side, we have moved away from the lower end of the range and are much closer to the middle but I […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
Heading to the lower end of the range today. I suspect I am going to sound like a broken record as we bounce around this range. I keep noting that we will breakout of the upper end if we get some M&A but we also cannot ignore the possibility that we breakdown. We are in […]
October 10th, Biotech Update
We certainly seem to be setting up a range bound market instead of that uptrend that I ideally thought could develop. While not the best case scenario, it is also not the worst case. I think the lack of news and M&A might be stalling the market and perhaps we need the return of deals […]
September 30th Biotech Update
We are at a place where we should bounce and we did get a nice little rally to start the morning (after starting lower). Ideally that should be built upon today and later in the week. The goal would obviously be to put in a higher low and then use that move to a higher […]
September 11th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be recovering, which is good. I do sort of wonder if we end up rangebound until the election. That being said, neither candidate is particularly positive towards the sector. There is the assumption that Republicans will be more pro-business but the populist nature of Trump leads him to be closer to […]
August 22nd Biotech Update
I suspected that we would have paused this week but the sector has had a nice continuation this week despite hitting what I thought would have been natural resistance. That is a nice sign of strength but I still think the sector is a little extended in the immediate term and likely needs a to […]
August 19th Biotech Update
I am moved and have a setup where I can do some work. Still have a lot of unpacking and work to do but time to look back at the market and see what has been happening. It looks like we have climbed up to some resistance. We appear to have had a nice little […]
July 12th Biotech Update
It has been a really good week. If you look at the chart, one could make a compelling case that we are breaking out of that range. I would not have predicted this was the week in which that would happen but it looks good. If I were writing the ideal script we would extend […]
June 28th Biotech Update
Not a bad week nor a great week for the sector. It would have been nice to see the sector set a new high but we did get a nice bounce from support. The XBI is going to be interesting to follow going forward because they have changed the composition to have more large caps. […]
June 10th Biotech Update
Keeping on the theme of griding we continue to work through the ASCO and other data. The sector is still going to be linked to rates and the Fed but given that we are not in a place for rates to go down, we are looking likely to grind away at these levels. I thought […]
May 28th Biotech Update
There was not a lot of interest in the sector in front of a long weekend. That is somewhat interesting as usually a long weekend sparks dreams of potential deals being finished. While M&A has been fine this year, there does not seem to be the level of excitement or interest that we have seen […]
May 13th Biotech Update
While my idea that steady rates would provide some room for the sector to recover and potentially move higher is not quite working out. Steady rates are not bad for the sector but I still think there are worries about the rate environment and perhaps we need to see a little more confidence that inflation […]
May 10th Biotech Update
Not the best of weeks but also not the worst of weeks. It would have been ideal to get some momentum to the upside but grinding volume at this level is not awful for the longer term. Of course, if the next move is significantly lower then this ends up being a level of resistance […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
Well, the Fed was not a disaster for the sector and in many ways it worked out well (at least on Fed day). This has generally been a decent week for the sector and while part of that is related to the fundamentals, I still think we are tied to interest rates and the lack […]
May 1st Biotech Update
I would not say that we got momentum but trading in line with the market (if not a little better in parts) is not the worst scenario. I will continue to be a broken record with my call on rates and that once they stabilize they sector will finally start to trade more on fundamentals […]
March 25th Biotech Update
While the sector certainly seems to be holding up around support, this does not feel like a good place for the sector. The market and tech sectors are at highs and we are struggling to bounce off of what should be pretty strong levels of support. The small caps are not doing as well as […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
I guess we are not done with rates quite yet. We do seem to be a little sensitive (at least more so than I would have thought). Fed day was not great but as rates fell, the sector did better. I think we are all done with being so tightly correlated with interest rates but […]
January 17th Biotech Update
A little bit of expected weakness to start the week. I am not sure how much of a pullback is coming but I still think we are due for one. As I noted yesterday, it is perfectly consistent with previous patterns and this weakness could be more than just a couple of days but weeks […]
December 1st Biotech Update
We the news that we needed to really push the sector higher with a large oncology deal. Now the move is good to see and certainly adds some nice momentum to the sector but ideally we would want that to last a couple of days. One day spike higher and then giving it back over […]
