Really not much happening in the sector, so I will keep this relatively quick. I think if we can close above $93 on the XBI it bodes well for next week but it would take a nice move today. I do not think we are anywhere close to breaking down so either we have a […]
October 29 Biotech Update
Surprisingly not any M&A (I say sarcastically). It is interesting, however, that there are some partnership deals and this makes me wonder if that is the new M&A. It is a relatively cheap way to get access to a particular asset with relatively lower risk especially if most of the biobucks are commercial. It is […]
October 18 Biotech Update
We finally have some M&A in the sector but I am not convinced it will have a very broad effect. While it is not a small deal, the $2B or so price tag is not game changing for anyone. In addition, the top holders were overwhelmingly biotech specialists and not generalists. Clearly it will be […]
July 19 Biotech Update
The sector has hit a rough patch as we get into earnings season. The market itself has not been stellar, so I would not read this as some early take on the big set of earnings next week. In fact, large biotech has tended to do relatively well on these sell offs so despite the […]
April 19 Biotech Update
We are starting to enter into earnings season, which will pick up next week. This will obviously be driving price action and there is usually a little more risk/volatility in 1Q earnings given the donut whole. This happens every year and you would expect that people would understand by now but every year there is […]
April 9 Biotech Update
I picked the wrong day to be out of the office. I thought the news will be in a lull before AACR picked up later this week. I guess I was wrong (on multiple fronts). The trading leading into AACR and during AACR will be key to the sector getting a more sustained move higher. […]
November 27 Biotech Update
Perhaps we are in the calm before the storm or people are still recovering from their Thanksgiving meals but the sector is off to a slow start to the week. Trading last week was not too bad even it was on low volume. We have one last potential catalyst this year with ASH coming soon […]
October 30 Biotech Update
It is a good start to the week for the sector but whether this is a dead cat bounce or something more meaning has yet to be determined. The selling has been pretty intense and likely overdone, so we were due for at least a bounce and we got through a morning without bad news. […]
August 31 Biotech Update
The good news and move for the sector continues. In isolation the move higher seems a stretch in terms of the fundamental news that we have seen the past week. The news has been good but we have had weeks with better news and did not have this reaction. Clearly sentiment has changed in the […]
July 18 Biotech Update
There seems to be a negative pattern developing with strength early that gives way to weakness later in the day. This is not totally unexpected given the need to consolidate but it is certainly sending a signal. We have a set of good news last night and this morning and this should be the strongest […]
July 13 Biotech Update
We have some news and perhaps additional news but unconfirmed as of yet. In general, however, the sector seems to be more or less treading water without a real upside or downside balance. This is potentially a longer term positive as we might be consolidating the breakout through time as opposed to price. I still […]
July 11 Biotech Update
We are getting some news at least but nothing that is thesis changing but perhaps just enough to move the needle for the sector but that is to be determined. I want to touch on some of the more broadly applicable news that happened in the past 24 hours. 1. Perhaps the most important news […]
June 21 Biotech Update
Biotech is clearly back. We appear to be breaking out of the range with perhaps broadening participation and increasing volume. I am not a technician but this is looking good. There is not a lot of news but I wanted to touch on a couple of quick points and make this a relatively short note. […]
June 6 Biotech Update
I am back from ASCO with a lot to cover and I will focus on broader themes today and spend the rest of the week with more company specific commentary. The reaction to ASCO so far has been bad but as I noted before that is not completely unexpected. The trading action before ASCO does […]
April 25 Biotech Update
The market continues to have a tail wind as France and North Korean risks are being removed (although not sure we are quite out of the woods on North Korea but could be relatively soon). The sector seems to be participating a little more today, which is a positive sign but as I noted yesterday […]
February 15 Biotech Update
We have some additional news yesterday but nothing that is necessarily positive for the sector. It certainly rallied in the afternoon and I suspect there is enough juice left for that to continue. Of course, we are only one tweet away from a pullback but I guess that is true of every sector and stock. […]
January 25 Biotech Update
Tomorrow is our big earning day (will not be able to write tomorrow so look for an update on the news Friday) but today we at least had a positive earnings with NVS. While I am sure there will be tradable extreme moves, the sector is going to continue to need positive earnings and data […]
December 20 Biotech Update
Well, this has been a strangely interesting day for the week before Christmas. I thought the bulk of news was done but I clearly spoke too soon. There is some good news for the sector as well as some good-well-maybe-bad-let-us-argue news. I am going to go through these as sort of quick hits as none […]
November 29 Biotech Update
It seems like the election move is taking a time out and some consolidation is happening. That is not surprising given the move and (at least for the sector) the news. Despite the pause, we are heading into a historically good period for the sector as well as a time of increased M&A activity. I […]
September 23 Biotech Update
The sector seems to be quieting down a little and perhaps a little bit of consolidation of the recent move is in the cards. All in all, however, it seems like a productive week for the sector and confirms my base case that the likely path moving forward is higher (with the obvious pullbacks sprinkle […]
