We could be setting ourselves up for moving to a higher high with the reversal yesterday. While it certainly seems possible, this would also be the potential start of a new trend so I would be cautious in putting too much stock in it until we see some real confirmation. In this case it would […]
August 20th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be hanging in there despite the CRLs yesterday but there remains some interesting fallout that I want to focus on today. I would not be surprised to see the sector ultimately move higher in the near term given how well it traded on pretty negative news but we will see. I […]
February 25 Biotech Update
Today will be interesting for the markets. As I noted, the market has trained most to buy the dips and big sell-offs are followed by new highs. The gap up this morning could all but confirm that we are no longer in that type of market. If the gap turns into a gap and go, […]
February 21st Biotech Update
I am back and the sector has barely changed. I do feel, however, that we are closer to a move lower than before. The market seems to be revising both the scale of the COVID epidemic as well as its economic impact. If that is true then the next move will very likely be lower […]
January 29 Biotech Update
The sector and market seem to be trying to make a decision. There was a decent selloff and now the bounce. Is the bounce just resetting the short term oversold conditions for another leg lower or has the selloff provided the dip that the longer term trend higher needed. I am not sure either way […]
January 27 Biotech Update
We are heading into a perfect storm for weakness, so stay nimble and/or hedged. The sector has had a nice run and was overbought. We had an uneventful JPM and are set for a series of post-JPM secondaries. The broader market is going to be weak given growing pandemic fears (and the real impact it […]
January 24 Biotech Update
Thanks to everyone who was on the stream yesterday and those that watched afterwards. Not much has really changed between now and then. The sector appears relatively weak but perhaps more range bound than anything else. I would look at the $91.50 or so level on the XBI as the bottom of the range. I […]
January 14 Biotech Update
It is all but confirmed that this is going to be the worse JPM in my memory on the deal front. I knew without CELG and AGN you had fewer companies to be buyers but this is still oddly weak for the remaining large caps. I honestly think the sector is holding up better than […]
January 9th Biotech Update
I think macro is officially in the background for now. It seems clear the US will not respond and most encouraging is that the US noted that they will not necessarily equate the Iranian proxies with Iran. In other words, everyone is de-escalating. This is not over as economic sanctions remain and that is part […]
November 25th Biotech Update
If it were not for some M&A this would be a quiet start to the week. I suspect that in the end it will be pretty low on fundamental news given the holiday week but we are off to a good start. This should provide even more support to the trend and the broken record […]
October 30 Biotech Update
The price action has not been great the past couple of days despite continued positive fundamentals. This could simply be a consolidation of the recent move higher and setting up a higher low for the sector. I would lean towards the sector setting up a higher low at this point as the macro is fine […]
October 22 Biotech Update
I believe it is safe to say that we have some news today. I strongly suspect the news will be viewed as positive and should drive the sector higher. Let us dive into this news. Aducanumab work! Sort of. Perhaps. I cannot think of a drug that failed futility only to come back later and […]
Initiating: Turning Point Therapeutics
San Diego based Turning Point Therapeutics is an oncology focused biotech that completed a successful IPO in April this year, raising about $190M with pricing at $18/sh. As the stock continued to climb, TPTX quickly filed for a secondary on September 3rd, adding another $200M to its cash hoard. The company is now very well […]
August 7 Biotech Update
Are we in the process of bottoming? Perhaps. The sector still cannot get the moves it deserves based on the fundamental news that has come the past couple of weeks. What will be most telling is when the macro fades and market rallies, does the sector outperform? In other words, have people noticed the good […]
July 23 Biotech Update
This is an odd day in the market. You get the first important large cap earnings, which usually drives the rest of the sector but there is no connection. BIIB (which is discussed below) did well but the broader sector is grossly underperforming it and the broader market. Not exactly sure of the reason but […]
June 6 Biotech Update
Nothing has really changed. Oddly the sector is really underperforming the market today at the start, which is not good but at least we are seeing an end to the tight correlations. I still think everything is going to move with news on the Mexican tariffs. If they go into effect, then everything goes down. […]
May 28 Biotech Update
So a relatively slow start to the week. I suspect many hoped for a buyout or two after the long weekend but no such luck. We do have a potential run up into ASCO next week as a catalyst, although it seems at this point that the majority of presentations will be marginal updates as […]
May 9 Biotech Update
Macro seems to once again dominate the trading with both Iran and China increasing the risk and both North Korea and Venezuela just below the surface. The odds remain that we muddle through these crises but one cannot ignore the risks that these present especially because the Iran and China situations could potentially be very […]
May 7th Biotech Update
A good day for the sector despite a relatively bad day for the market. This is a rare occurrence for the sector to outperform (at least recently). One day does not make a trend but it was certainly encouraging to see the sector do well and if the market continues to slide it is unlikely […]
May 6th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the week for the market with the surprise tariff news hitting the market. I would not be stunned for the effect to be muted given how frequently Chine trade news changes. For all we know progress will be made this afternoon and all will be good again. As such, my […]
