There has been some interesting news to end the week. The market seems to have recovered its footing a little and this includes the sector. There is still some work to be done to repair the damage of the sell off but so far so good. 1. NBIX has been interesting. I thought it would […]
Dave Trading – March 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
February 14 Biotech Update
It is a pretty active morning for news, so I will dive right into the events as they are pretty interesting. I am not convinced that these will be enough to break the sector out higher but they are all generally positive in the longer term. 1. The least interesting news was NBIX earnings that […]
January 25 Biotech Update
We are getting some biotech earnings but nothing that is dramatically thesis changing. We had a little consolidation yesterday and I would not be surprised to see it continue but the trend remains higher and suspect that we break into new highs in the first quarter (assuming at least a benign general market environment). 1. […]
Dave-Trading – February 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
January 11 Biotech Update
While we still have two trading days left this week, it looks like we will end up with a decent performance for the sector. Given the lack of news at JPM, this appears to be a win (assuming it continues) and seems to support the argument that the Monday selling was fast money getting out […]
January 8 biotech update
This is not a good start to JPM if this is the best the sector can do in terms of fundamental news. Unless news picks up, I would count it as a win if we end the week flat. It is not that there is particularly bad news but the expectations heading into JPM are […]
December 12 Biotech Update
The sector sort of held in there for the ASH hangover but was sort of hit or miss. With ASH winding down, we are seeing the winners selling shares and the losers trying to cut losses. At this point, it is either a wait for JPM or hope for some news out of nowhere. 1. […]
November 2 Biotech Update
I remain a little skeptical of the sector. We have had good news this week and while it has pushed those stocks higher, it had no impact on any other stock. The XBI and IBB were flat to down when you had a number of stocks in those indices up double digits. So while it […]
June 22 Biotech Update
The sector continues to rocket higher as clearly sentiment has reversed. This run likely has more legs than anyone thinks. The sector has been in a massive bear market and churned sideways for about 18 months. We were barely 5% above the upper end of the range and I saw comments about the sector looking […]
June 1 Biotech Update
The sector sort of had some positive news yesterday with TSRO putting itself on the proverbial block. This obviously moved TSRO and sector as it reminded people that good things might happen as well. Given that this was meaningful for the sector (and the lack of other news) I want to focus on a couple […]
May 31 Biotech Update
No news continues this week and now we are in a low volume bounce mode. It is unclear if it will hold but it might as it was not as if there was a ton of selling pressure that moved stocks lower. It seems more of a buyer strike than a real concerted effort to […]
May 24 Biotech Update
The sector is having issues. If it is not in oversold conditions it certainly feels that way. Part of the issue is the traditional reasons to sell biotech but it is not as if these companies have been releasing stellar news recently. In any case, this seems to be creating decent opportunities. 1. First a […]
May 17 Biotech Update
We have an interesting morning and likely next couple days of trading. The proximate cause of the selling is the continuing and escalating crisis with the Trump administration. While predicting what happens next is a fool’s errand with this administration, it really is starting the look like the endgame is either impeachment, war (started to […]
April 12 Biotech Update
Nothing has changed really in terms of politics. There is still talk coming out of Washington about health care reform not being dead and I do think they are still trying. The problem facing Trump is that without the savings from health care reform, the tax cuts in tax reform explode the deficit. In other […]
April 11 Biotech Update
We are inching closer to a major black swan as I noted earlier. This is keeping me very cautious about initiating new positions in size. Keep in mind that April 15th is the Day of the Sun (celebration of birthday of Kim il-sung), which is a period of tension with the North Korean government usually […]
April 4 Biotech Update
The sector had a little bit of a down draft late yesterday and I suspect that it is related to the news that TrumpCare may not be dead. Clearly there are actions being held to revive the legislation but we are likely a year plus from any real passage even if they are able to […]
January 18 Biotech Update
We have some news to talk about that seems to be a net neutral but in terms of individual stocks are likely meaningful. I also do not want to beat a point into the ground but I read an article that interviewed some republican legislators, who seemed to imply I was correct about Trump to […]
January 6 Biotech Update
News continues to come in (both expected and unexpected) and the sector remains strong into JPM. Usually there is a tailwind JPM week that can last a little but eventually all the secondaries that come after JPM stall the momentum. Last year was obviously an exception to that pattern but it seems (at least so […]
June 21 Biotech Update
Really not much news but the more things change the more they stay the same. We seem destined to once again test the lows in the sector and one has to worry about each test. On the positive side the support keeps holding but on the negative side each test probably increases the risk of […]
