Guess what? The macro continues to dominate but it might actually work for us this week. If Mexico can work out a deal with the US, then the market is set to move a lot higher. If not, then expect more downside. Given the amount of disruption that the tariffs would cause, I suspect a […]
May 21st Biotech Update
And today we are green with the rest of the market. There is some biotech news but at this point the sector is trading simply as a slightly higher beta version of the general market (it is a little more red on down days and a little more green on up days). On the positive […]
February 26 Biotech Update
The sector has gapped above the range with merger Monday. Interestingly the last gap we saw in the XBI (JPM week) saw a gap and run instead of a test of the gap. While it is not impossible to see a similar gap and run in this case, we are already hitting what could be […]
February 12 Biotech Update
We have some interesting news today (positive and negative) with some interesting read through. I still think the base case is that the sector is in a range until proven otherwise and there is nothing in the price action to indicate anything different. 1. The biggest news is obviously the GILD miss on NASH. This […]
February 1st Biotech Update
The sector seems to have gotten its footing in a way I was not expecting. Perhaps there is a bigger underlying bid than I thought. Perhaps the dovish turn in the Fed has put risk on again. In either case, it looks like $80 on the XBI acted as support and now the question is […]
January 24 Biotech Update
Another day and another chance to grind away at these levels. Yesterday was pretty weak and it will be interesting to see how the sector reacts. If we have an inside day, then perhaps the near term trend remains the grind but if we break below yesterday’s low then it is another sign that the […]
December 18 Biotech Update
It is brutal out there for bears and bulls alike. While the trend seems to be lower the market continues to have little rips higher. I still lean towards another leg lower and the XBI is sitting right above the recent lows and a break below those levels starts the waterfall down to another low. […]
November 28 Biotech Update
Yesterday as a bad day for the sector as it was red with a positive broader market backdrop. To be fair it was a rather odd day in the sector as the large caps also grossly outperformed the SMID space, which was held down by some large losses. I am not quite willing to see […]
CEO Interview: Bellus Outlook Post the Positive Ph1 Chronic Cough Study
Back in August I published my deep dive report “Bellus – David vs. Goliath, Can BLU Deliver A Better Chronic Cough Drug Than Merck?” (Link) with a bull thesis stating that Bellus Health (TSX: BLU.TO) (OTC: BLUSF) have a good chance to pass the first true hurdle and achieve positive results from their clinical trial […]
Opinion: No, The Antibiotics Market Is Not Broken
In light of slow drug launches and disappointing sales, there is a growing chorus of voices saying the antibiotics drug market is broken; that the government must step in to save one of our most important resources. With no profits to pursue, it is said, companies will abandon antibiotics, leaving society vulnerable to the spread […]
November 5 Biotech Update
We are entering the heart of the SMID earning season and while it could have an impact on the individual stock, it usually does not have major impacts more broadly. It is once again a quite start to the week and even macro it seems pretty staid. This is nice in that it will provide […]
Bellus – David vs. Goliath Round 2 – Can BLU Expand the Pipeline Following Merck Lead?
Back in August I published my first deep dive report “Bellus – David vs. Goliath Can BLU Deliver A Better Chronic Cough Drug Than Merck?” (Link) about Bellus Health (BLU.TO) (BLUSF) a biopharmaceutical development company based in Montreal, Canada. Its lead drug candidate is BLU-5937 which is a highly selective P2X3 antagonist that has the […]
October 31 Biotech Update
Is the sector starting to bottom? It certainly does not feel like it as every gain is followed by more selling. No move higher seems to have any staying power. Positive starts to the day are sold by the end of the day. All that being said bottom and tops looks so clear in hindsight […]
October 18 Biotech Update
We finally have some M&A in the sector but I am not convinced it will have a very broad effect. While it is not a small deal, the $2B or so price tag is not game changing for anyone. In addition, the top holders were overwhelmingly biotech specialists and not generalists. Clearly it will be […]
September 17 Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week in terms of trading as it looks like we are set to retest the bottom on the range (yet again). As long as the market does not start a larger move lower, there is nothing to think that the range will not hold again but as with any […]
July 20 Biotech Update
Not a ton of news to end the week as the sector continues to drift around. This is not completely surprising given the earnings coming next week. I will be out of town on vacation all of next week, so there will be no updates. I will catch up the week after next but on […]
May 8 Biotech Update
It continues to be a slow news week, which is not completely unexpected given the series of large cap earnings. Today might very well be a macro day with Trump scheduled to release his decision on the Iran deal. That could fall any numbers of ways, so I suspect the market to tread water until […]
April 23 Biotech Update
Sort of a quite start to the week but it is Monday of the first week of earnings, so it is not completely surprising to see a slow start. Obviously news will pick up with the earnings this week and perhaps we get some news outside of earnings but that remains TBD. 1. PRTA announced […]
April 18 Biotech Update
We certainly seem to be moving away from the macro concerns to more sector specific issues, which is good to finally see. Of course, we are only one news cycle away from the macro driving the sector again but for now it seems like the sector survived and seems to be doing well. 1. BPMC […]
April 16 Biotech Update
We had the Syrian strikes over the weekend and for all intents and purposes it was typically political theater, which makes it enough for all sides to declare victory and move on. Perhaps there will be further consequences in the future but for now it is unlikely to be a significant macro worry for the […]
