Sorry for the little break. I am hopefully back and at it. The sector has not done great but it does not look too bad either. There have been lower lows and lower highs, which signals a clear downtrend but it seems to have been pretty orderly and we are now back to the old […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but that is not necessarily bad. The sector has been strong and there has been nothing to change it. I think the biggest news has been outside the sector with the decline in the Empire State index, but I imagine that might not been a massive surprise (perhaps the […]
August 8th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and it should continue the momentum for the sector. While I think we still can move on the news, it is also the case that the sector has had a nice run recently. Nothing goes up (or down forever) and the longer the run, the better the news has […]
July 21st Biotech Update
A slow week but a good week for the sector. We are entering earnings and that might provide a little boost or drag but it has been awhile since an earnings season really seemed to impact the sector. They can affect individual stocks but the quarters where you have broad read throughs seem to have […]
July 14th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be doing ok as we inch closer to earnings season. It will be interesting to see how the sector moves on earnings as there is nothing that should really surprise anyone. There are still some issues outside the companies that could impact trading. There is some drug pricing reforms being discussed […]
July 12th Biotech Update
No real news to start the week the juice the sector and so far we have simply followed the broader market lower. This could/should be the pullback that refreshes as we have had a nice run higher and a pullback to the $78 level makes sense. Of course that needs to hold and we need […]
July 8th Biotech Update
I am not sure if we end up green today or not but I think we are finally in a decent position for the sector. There is a virtuous position where a sector has outperformed but investor are underweighted it and so they are underperforming the market. They need to get into the sector to […]
July 7th Biotech Update
Are we going to get the deal? It looks like it and it looks like the sector is responding well. To be fair the sector was already doing well before the report, so this looks like a continuation of that move. I think it is relatively safe to say that the sector finally has created […]
July 5th Biotech Update
Not the ideal return from vacation for me or the end of a holiday extended weekend for everyone else. It would have been really nice to have started this week with a buyout but there really is not a ton of news to start the week. Ideally we can reverse this early weakness and build […]
June 21st Biotech Update
Are we finally getting some love in the sector? The market and sector were very oversold and we were due for a bounce in both. We seem to be getting some nice momentum in both (and I would add cryptocurrency which adds to my belief that it really might be a proxy now for risk […]
April 28th Biotech Update
Well, the sector and market is a mess right now. This makes it an interesting earning season as we have to content not just with what the quarterly results are telling us but also in an uncertain economic background. The US GDP unexpectedly contracted, although it might be overstating the weakness of the economy as […]
April 7th Biotech Update
It has been an up and down week and while some of the moves felt trend like, i.e. that they would be part of a more sustained move to the upside or downside, it seems like the week is one of sideways. There are still two trading days to make the week one of green […]
February 17th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
We are getting more of the same this morning with general weakness but some small pockets of outperformance. I suspect that if the broader market continues to weaken those pockets of strength will be less green and more not red as the general market. Today seems like the previous days only amplified to a certain […]
February 3rd Biotech (and MLP update)
I think we are at the point where it might not be about whether we break out of the downtrend and more at the point of whether or not this is part of a messy bottoming process or setting up a lower low. The broader markets are clearly not helping the sector and if the […]
January 19th Biotech Update
Do you have whiplash yet? Yesterday was and I fully expected a bloodbath to open the market today and I was thinking that could setup a nice tradable low (the old gap lower to really push an extremely oversold market to ludicrously oversold) but opening a little higher today makes it less clear. I am […]
January 14th Biotech Update
It is not going well for the sector. There just seem to be no buyers at any levels. I am not sure what will bring the buyers back. Obviously the biggest component is M&A but keep in mind the sector reaction after MRK bought XLRN. I have a hard time thinking through big risks. Drug […]
January 13th Biotech (and Energy) Update
The sector cannot help itself and stress investors. We are back at the critical level of support and if it breaks then I think there is significantly more downside. My view is that support will hold until proven otherwise (just as resistance will hold until proven otherwise). Given the lack of really positive news or […]
January 4th Biotech Update
Yesterday ended up being a good day but we have seen this before and to really turn the page we need to have multiple good days in a row. So while it was nice to see and was a good start to the new year, it will take more than a single day to convince […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
December 1st Biotech Update
It is hard to be optimistic with the sector. We are well overdue for a bounce and if we assume that we are in a bear market these rallies can be significant. I have been looking at the sector as being in a large range and now that has been clearly broken. Is there a […]
