News continues to roll in and the market is providing a relatively neutral backdrop, which gives us a good sense of what the price action means. In other words, the price action of biotech stocks after news seems to be a clear signal of market reaction and is not being cloudy by macro effects. This […]
November 7 Biotech Update
To say it has been a busy day is an understatement. Rather than try and cover everything that is happening, I would prefer to focus on a couple items a day. I would also note that the sector seems weakening which is probably an early signal for the broader market but it is difficult to […]
November 5 Biotech Update
The markets seem to be in consolidation mode or to put it another way it is trying to make up its mind about the next move. At this point I am 50/50 on the next move as it really seems to be in no man’s land. The longer we stay at these levels the better […]
October 27 Biotech Update
The market started a little weak this morning and while I am sure you can find a reason (Ebola, EU stress tests, end of POMO, etc), the market has had a nice run and simply needs to consolidate. This is not to say that we start the consolidation today but this is getting stretched in […]
October 24 Biotech Update
It was a neutral open for the market which is pretty positive given the selling related to the Ebola case in NYC. It is very positive to see the market shrug off the news as it now seems that the Ebola panic and fear is decreasing. I read that there are probably up to 8-10 […]
October 23 Bioech Update
The rebound is continuing with large caps continuing to lead but with good participation with the small caps, which is nice to see. It really is a little amazing to see how many V-shaped moves this market makes and how little memory it has day to day. In any case, I still think the path […]
MRK – A Falling Knife Or a Golden Opportunity
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) -NYSE Many speculation going around the huge drop in MRK’s share price in just one week, dropping from the $60.18 (closing on 10/08) to reach the low of $52.49 today, but bouncing back sharply to trade around the support line $53.44. Some speculation of De-risking as we get closer to […]
October 16 Biotech Update
The market continues its weakness but I am certainly encouraged that small caps are out performing. They were an early signal on the way down and so are potentially an early signal on the way back up. Of course, it could just be funds who were short are raising cash but I am not convinced […]
[Free Report] JNJ Aquires Alios: What This Means For Achillion
Johnson & Johnson announced today it will acquire privately held Alios BioPharma for $1.75 Billion in cash, gaining rights to the mid-stage treatment for infants with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), AL-8176, and early stage nuc AL-335 for HCV. “We are excited that this acquisition will enable us to explore treatment options for a number of […]
Recent Option Activity (9/10 ~ 9/11)
The following stocks had recent and notable activity in their options: $MRK (9/10): 12,800 JAN15 50.0 strike Calls were sold (stock at $60.56) for 10.70 or total proceeds of $13.7 million. This trade is likely part of a larger “dividend capture” strategy (see: http://www.businessinsider.com/options-dividend-trade-strategy-2012-9) and should be viewed as neutral (not bearish or bullish). $SNSS […]
September 5 Biotech Update
It was an interesting day in the markets with NFP coming in under expectations. Rumors of a new ceasefire in the Ukraine and flash crashes in mega-cap companies. What is sort of interesting is that despite all of these events the market itself is basically flat, although I doubt it will stay flat and expect […]
September 4 Biotech Update
Markets are generally moving higher again this morning likely on the back of quantitative easing making its entrance into Europe. I expect a slightly stronger reaction to this news but it is still early, so I would not be surprised if the market strengthened throughout the day. Debates over the utility of QE aside, they […]
August 25 Biotech Update
I do not want to say this is a slow news day but outside of the ITMN deal, there is really not much else going on. The market is rallying and the sector is clearly moving with it if not taking the lead. Perhaps this will be the start of the long awaited catch-up in […]
August 14 Biotech Update
While the general trends have not changed much today, I do want to highlight one cautionary note. We are now through most earnings so that catalyst flow is going to slow and we all know that a biotech without a catalyst tends to underperform. The saving grace is that we are getting close to the […]
Merck – Preparing For The Next Move
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) -NYSE Lately, Merck was under the spot light after Idenix Pharmaceuticals deal, paying $3.85 Billion more than triple Idenix’s market capitalization before the deal , and to take part of the Hepatitis C battle, one of the hottest areas of drug development along with GILD, ABBV and BMY. But the […]
July 29 Biotech Update
I had a great email last night that asked me to compare FMI and ILMN and so today I will go a step further and have a day of rumbles with FMI vs ILMN, CNAT vs GALT, and MRK vs PFE. I would talk a little about the broader market and sector but at this […]
July 28 Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week but the sector seems to be tracking the broader market selloff. I am really of two minds in that there are many reasons to expect the broader market to hit a significant air pocket as it seems pricey by a number of traditional valuation methods (CAPE and so […]
July 11 Biotech Update
Despite a weak macro market, biotechs actually performed pretty well yesterday. That was a surprise albeit a pleasant one. Clearly biotech has its mojo back as three or four months ago, the sector would have been down 5% on a day like yesterday. I have been talking about reactions to earnings as a signal about […]
June 18 Biotech Update
The sector (and market really) has been choppy since late yesterday morning. I would not read anything into these movements as it is a combination of low volume summer doldrums and the lack of any strong short term trend. As I have been saying for awhile, there will be a positive bias to trading for […]
June 5 Biotech Update
The market looks like it is teetering on the edge and perhaps it is the ISIS march across northern Iraq that will be the impetus to send it into the correction. What is interesting is that the biotech sector has held up well in this market weakness (although the weakness has been relatively minor at […]
