We got the bounce that I was sort of expecting and I would not be surprised if it continued. We are right at pretty strong support (or what I thought should have been pretty strong support). My base case is that we should expect this bounce to continue but I am still not 100% sure […]
November 14th Biotech Update
Are we having a false breakout? Maybe but I would not think that is the base case assumption. Breakouts can be choppy and we still likely have a uncertainty in politics (even though that has come down a lot). Until we get closer to the lower end of the range I would not start talking […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
Heading to the lower end of the range today. I suspect I am going to sound like a broken record as we bounce around this range. I keep noting that we will breakout of the upper end if we get some M&A but we also cannot ignore the possibility that we breakdown. We are in […]
October 22nd Biotech Update
Pretty slow to start the week. Not a ton of news that would really move stocks let alone the sector. I think we are probably going to drift around in a range pretty correlated with the broader markets. While there could be some really good data that could move the sector, I still think the […]
September 11th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be recovering, which is good. I do sort of wonder if we end up rangebound until the election. That being said, neither candidate is particularly positive towards the sector. There is the assumption that Republicans will be more pro-business but the populist nature of Trump leads him to be closer to […]
September 9th Biotech Update
September started off pretty weak but this has always been a difficult month for the markets. I do not really see this as a change in the market and more as a consolidation. Of course, there is only so much the market can decline before it becomes something more but at this point, I would […]
July 31st Biotech Update
I am in the middle of moving cross country and so will be hit and miss for the next month or so. I am back for a little bit but also have to catch up on earnings and news. I will try and take it in bits and pieces as opposed to doing it all […]
June 5th Biotech Update
Not a bad start to the week. It is a nice little move higher but we are still in a grinding sort of market. I am perfectly content to let the sector build a nice long base at these levels. Of course, these can be double edged swords. It will be a very strong base […]
May 22nd Biotech Update
We are hanging out. I do feel like there is a little more interest in the sector than has been and obviously it is related to rates. They have trended down recently, and the talk is that CPI should be cooling off as well. The FED has not really changed its tone a lot and […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
I guess we are not done with rates quite yet. We do seem to be a little sensitive (at least more so than I would have thought). Fed day was not great but as rates fell, the sector did better. I think we are all done with being so tightly correlated with interest rates but […]
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January 16th Biotech Update
JPM is over and it was an OK conference. It was not the best with deals but there was a big group right before the conference and so all in it was a hefty amount of deals. The conference appeared one of the more upbeat in recent years and that bodes well. I think we […]
December 14th Biotech Update
News is going to start slowing as we get closer to the holiday and new year. That being said we are having some very nice momentum to end the year. This is probably the strongest we have been for a long time. It seems clear that rates have peaked, and the next move will be […]
October 23rd Biotech Update
The market is not doing well with rates moving higher still and we all know what that means for the sector. It looks like yet another day with generally positive news in the sector and yet we will not be able to move higher. I feel like we are at the stage where everyone is […]
October 20th Biotech Update
When the market zigs when the information zags, it sends a strong signal. That was why I think PFE put in a bottom when they massively cut revenue guidance but ended up green. Last night was a set of good news for the sector (not massively so but certainly important news) and so we should […]
September 22nd, Biotech Update
I thought we were heading to these levels and unfortunately we made it. This certainly needs to hold because the next real support ends up being around $62. The whole market is weak an so this is not necessarily an XBI issue but we have been in a bear market for multiple years and seemingly […]
August 23rd Biotech Update
Nothing is going to change my overall view on the market and the sector, where I think we need to touch that 52-week low to find significant longer-term support. We keep seeing rates going higher and while the cause of that does not matter, the increasing costs of capital always end up being a drag […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Well, the lower low seems to have been put into place as the sector is acting pretty heavy, which is no surprising given that the broader market appears weak as well. I think we end up get to the 52-week low area for the sector (around 72 on the XBI) before we likely get real […]
August 15th Biotech Update
The sector is not doing great nor is it really breaking down. We are perhaps in the post earnings, late summer malaise that drifts. Of course, that does not mean that we cannot have significant movements or price action in particular names but I suspect that we are going to be slow on the trading […]
May 18th Biotech Update
The FTC news with AMGN and HZNP was an awful way to start the week but in all honesty, the sector seems to have held up. The green day yesterday could be setting up a higher low, which assumes we make a higher high. I would not say the all clear has been signaled but […]
