We had a nice little ramp to end yesterday and hopefully that is a sign of some building momentum in the sector. There are good reasons for us to get some positive momentum with the BIIB approval (it is probably the largest positive surprise this year) and the broader market is likely supportive as well […]
May 24th Biotech Update
What if I told you we are starting the week with slow news and no deal? Well, it is slow news but we do actually have a small deal (nothing that is nearly large enough to spark any rally but a deal nonetheless). In some ways, the fact that the sector seems to have stopped […]
May 20th Biotech Update
I sort of want to say that the sector is in no man’s land. We are not challenging key levels lower or higher and there does not seem to be a real bias one way or another. This is not necessarily a bad thing given where we have been and the struggles the sector has […]
April 30th Biotech Update
The hits keep coming for the sector. It is certainly underperforming compared to many other market sector but let us be clear. It is not sentiment. I know it is frustrating to see the sector perform poorly but this year has seen a dearth of M&A, clinical and regulatory failures, and now a disaster of […]
April 15th Biotech Update
I want to be optimistic and speak to the new upside momentum in the sector and in the immediate term that is accurate. The issue is that even with all the positive price action we have only been able to get to the middle of the $125 to $140 range that is key for the […]
March 25th Biotech Update
It is never easy, I guess. It is always darkest before the dawn. I am sure there are other phrases that could apply to the market at this point but the fact is that the sector is clearly struggling. We had the chance to set a higher high and perhaps get some momentum but that […]
March 24th Biotech Update
You probably got the sense that I was leaning towards the sector eventually signaling a new trend higher at some point. Yesterday did not provide any comfort of confirmation of that lean. I would not argue that yesterday indicates that we are going to break into new lows but it definitely raises that possibility. It […]
March 15 Biotech Update
Well, we have a chance this week to reverse (or continue the reversal) and send a strong signal that the bottom is in. I suspect we cannot do that unless the NASDAQ has also bottomed, which probably means the broader market is going higher. There continues to be little thesis changing news so we will […]
March 12 Biotech (and Energy) Update
I think the only thing we can say with confidence is that we are in the middle of process as there is not clear uptrend, downtrend or bottom. This makes for frustrating moves for both bears and bulls as what looks good for your view on day is not another day (in fact it seems […]
March 1 Biotech Update
A good start to the week on relatively little news. I thought the sector had a clear shot down to the $140 or so level on the XBI but it is possible that the intraday move on Friday marked the bottom. We need more than simply a good start to the week but need it […]
February 26th Biotech Update
We did not get the follow through yesterday and as I feared it simply reset the chart to allow more downside. Clearly $140 on the XBI is in the cards and that would be a 20% or so decline in about three weeks. That is a fast move into bear market territory. I find it […]
February 8th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We have moved past the large cap portion of the earnings with positive price action in the sector but less so in the companies that are reporting. I do not believe that is related to the quality of the earnings as they were generally fine but more of a broader disconnect between large and SMID […]
December 18th Biotech Udate
It has been a little disappointing the follow through this week given the big M&A. It is not a disaster of a response but certainly not as good as I was expecting. We still have one day left so perhaps today can get us to new highs. There has not been a lot of news […]
December 17th Biotech Update
I am a little surprised at the lack of follow through after Monday. I expected the potential of a small retracement but then strength to return to the sector. I am not willing to say the trading is indicating a near term top is in for the sector as we are still in a seasonally […]
December 14th Biotech Update
We should certainly see all time highs this week to continue. We are in a seasonally good period and the news is certainly supportive. If we are unable to run off of this news it sends a strong signal. Certainly we were already at highs but this news should bring even more buyers into the […]
December 1st Biotech Update
A strong start to the week that is continuing. While certain sentiment measures are getting into danger territory, it still seems like the market has a little bit more room for running. The uncertainty around the elections is waning and the Biden economic team seems to indicate a strong desire for fiscal stimulus. We are […]
September 21 Biotech Update
A weak start to the week and it is not immediately clear the cause. The sector certainly had a decent run last week and a little consolidative pullback is not crazy. The broader markets were weaker last week and so this could be a continuation of that move. I actually sort of like this setup […]
June 22nd Biotech Update
The sector is trying to break out of its range to the upside. Not only did it trade above the range on Friday but close above it. The ultimate confirmation would be a run above the range and then come back and test of the old resistance for support. So at this point I see […]
June 19th Biotech Update
The sector started the week looking like it might break under the range but has ended the week threatening to break out above the range. All that being said I strongly suspect that the outcome is that we once again remain in the range. At some point the range will fail but trying to time […]
June 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update
I would like to say something really interesting is happening in the sector or there is some great opportunity but the fundamental news is sort of like the sector- flat. It seems to me there is a dual whammy hitting the sector that is acting as some headwinds that are holding it back. First, MRNA […]
