AACR is in full swing with a couple more days worth of data coming but so far there has not been anything thesis changing to the upside or downside. To be fair, we have more data expected in the next couple days but as I noted previously this tends to be an earlier stage conference. […]
March 31 Biotech Update
The sector in general seems to be drifting if not a slight negative bias but we are still seeing good news move stocks higher, which is not a bad setup into AACR. This tends to be an earlier stage conference, so less fundamental thesis changing data and more incremental. I will be interested to see […]
March 21 Biotech Update
While we are still seeing the residual impact of the PCSK9 news and events, I want to step back from that news and focus on some other companies/areas. Clearly it will take time for the news to settle into stocks but there has been some additional news. First, Trump talked about drug pricing (again) and […]
March 13 Biotech Update
Certainly getting some more news and events that could be driving the sector but nothing really thesis changing, we need to wait for the end of the week with the PCSK9 data. As we wait for that data, there are some interesting notes and company specific information that we can talk about. 1. KPTI was […]
March 3 Biotech Update
I think the sector has been rational the past couple of days in that good news is generally moving stocks higher and bad news lower. If there was a broader trend I would say weak but it almost seems out of sync with the broader market. When the broader market rallied the sector lagged and […]
February 24 Biotech Update
Weakness (sort of) continuing in the sector but perhaps that is simply drifting or consolidation after its recent performance. In either case, it still seems like people are unwilling to fully commit to the sector and my early warning signal of generalist entrance (and likely sustained outperformance) will be outperformance of CELG. That is a […]
December 5 Biotech Update
ASH has more or less come and gone. This is usually a highly anticipated conference that has some game changing data. While this was once again highly anticipated, I have been saying for weeks that this is an ASH of incremental as opposed to thesis changing data. A lot of the interesting data were updates […]
November 11 Biotech Update
The sector momentum continued and there is no reason to expect it will end soon. Of course, nothing goes straight up but as I noted before there are numerous tailwinds and if we can hit on the year end catalysts, then it could actually accelerate higher in the next couple months. So what could be […]
October 5 Biotech Update
I think the word of the week is drift. Sure there were some moves within the markets or sector but for the most part this is a low volume drift. We are closing in on a month from Election Day, so I suspect nobody wants to commit a lot of capital ahead of the election. […]
September 21 Biotech Update
The sector is certainly heating up and we still seem to be at the point where good news is rewarded and bad news is creating isolated damage. Not only do we have the tailwinds that I have been talking about but last week hedge funds were underweight the sector and continuing to sell. Every day […]
September 7 Biotech Update
It sort of feels like people are still on vacation. No volume. No price action. The sector is holding up in this environment and perhaps grinding higher but I am not reading much into the price action at all given the lack of any conviction. 1. The only real conviction move today is AGIO going […]
September 6 Biotech Update
A modest start to the week for the sector but let us wait to see more of the week as more traders get back from vacation before claiming victory or bemoaning defeat. We got the KPTI data and that is what I will focus on today. 1. OK. Let us start big picture with KPTI. […]
August 31 Biotech Update
More of the same in terms of the trading for the sector. We remain hostage of sentiment and low volume. Hopefully the pace of both news and volume will pick up next week after the Labor Day holiday. 1. MDCO sort of blew the APO-A1-Milano data. The interim results are essentially no news and yet […]
August 30 Biotech Update
I asked for some positive news as a test case to see how the sector reacts. We sort of got it last night but I do not think that is the best test case. I suspect we continue to trade heavy with the drug price anchor holding us back as we wait for either more […]
August 23 Biotech Update
Well, as much as I thought my routine would return to normal next week, we learned the schools are not going to open until September 6th at the earliest meaning that my kids will be spending a lot of time at work with their parents. At least we are still in the summer doldrums in […]
August 4 Biotech Update
Today is actually an interesting day as we have had a lot of small cap reports that offered nothing really new except continued progress that was well known and should have already been incorporated into expectations. For the most part, these stocks are higher, which I think signals that this run continues to have some […]
June 17 Biotech Update
I am starting to sound like a broken record but we are having more of the same in that I did not miss much yesterday and it continues today. It seems to me that we are stuck in a macro rut (Brexit concerns and FX movements) with no real sector catalysts to drive action so […]
June 14 Biotech Update
The sector continues to struggle but for some reason we seem to be getting a bounce today despite a set of fairly negative news. It obviously remains to be seen if this bounce can have any sort of staying power but it is certainly not driven by positive news. 1. I want to actually take […]
We saw some more low volume drift and no real news to break through the summer doldrums, which seems to be in effect. I think this will probably be the rule for the rest of the summer with choppy, low volume trading as the rule punctuated but news filled days that drive the sector (or […]
March 14 Biotech Update
We start off the week once again without M&A and light on the news. The news we did have was positive (even if there was some discussion on twitter about it). Long story short, there is nothing today to move the sector, although perhaps having a SMID with positive data will have some pin action. […]
