The sector sells off as later in the morning yesterday and on the open today. This remains consistent with my contention that we could be in for a range bound market. It is going to take a couple more round trips between the highs and lows of the range to really convince me (and likely […]
May 26th Biotech Update
The week is off to an optimistic start and it is not clear to me the exact reason. Perhaps it is more optimism about vaccines or a belief (hope) that the re-opening will not lead to a new spike in cases. We do know that there seems to have been a massive increase in retail […]
May 14th Biotech Update
So we are in the pullback to the breakout levels and the sector has some decision making to do. Either this level holds and we confirm the breakout or we make our way lower and the “breakout” looks like a blow off top. A breakdown would not be a great signal (obviously) but this would […]
May 5th Biotech Update
So it is looking like the late last week selling was a pause that refreshes and the demand for the sector continues. We still likely have a wall of resistance at $100 on the XBI, so it is not stunning that we paused when we reached that level. A sustained move above that level would […]
May the Force Be With Biotech Update
The trend is you friend until it is not anymore. We had a nice strong uptrend that appears to have broken. This obviously does not mean that we are moving to the low but that the next direction is not precisely clear. We needed to digest that recent move as it was almost straight up […]
April 9th Biotech Update
We live in a macro world for sure. Another strong day as FOMO is coming to the forefront driving the market higher and higher. Is the market mis-pricing risk at this point? Perhaps but looking at the FXI it bottomed pretty early into their epidemic and that is probably a good analogy for the US […]
March 10th Biotech Update
We open green, which I am not sure is the best to start a counter trend rally. Keep in mind that with volatility this high, a 3% move is not actually that big or meaningful. Usually one would see a 3% move in a day as a strong signal but at these levels of volatility, […]
March 2nd Biotech Update
It seems like this week is setup for a nice counter trend rally. We might actually get a face ripping rally. Why? While the virus continues to spread, a lot of spread is now priced into expectations. The market is oversold. We are likely to see continued spread but nothing to put the epidemic to […]
February 19th Biotech Update
The curious case of the flat market continues. At this point, I would call it a clear trend (with the trend being sideways). I know I have been waiting for the move out of this sideways actions and thought it was imminent but at this point perhaps we treat it like any other trend and […]
December 9th Biotech Update
We have our answer as to the strength of the trend. Positive data are being rewarded (so far) and the perfect storm continues for the sector with not only good data but more M&A. So not only do we need to think about the trend but also whether this is a major breakout as the […]
December 2nd Biotech Update
The sector remains strong and we have ASH coming so we could see a run in some names this week. Given the recent strength and the potential run-up (uptrends are prime run-up candidates), I would not be surprised to see a sell the news reaction on ASH data. Expectations are growing with the valuations and […]
November 26 Biotech Update
The trend is your friend and while I expected a news to slow we got an unanticipated surprise. Positive news continues to hit the sector and the trend continues higher. I will never call the end of the trend until it confirmed but we have had a great move and macro has been pretty supportive […]
February 27 Biotech Update
We still have not gapped and went, so I would think that possibility is lowering but I would not completely discount it. We have some positive news today in the SMID space that could trigger another round of buying but time is running out for the go part of the gap and go. 1. SRPT […]
May 1 Biotech Update
It looks like the market is in dangerous territory but barring some exogenous shock (perhaps war between Iran and Israel as a potential source of shock), it seems more like a long period of sideways trading. All rallies are being sold but the market has enough oversold conditions that it would be difficult to have […]
April 4 Biotech Update
The market is a volatility machine. We went so long without any real volatility and now all we have a whiplash moves. In periods of these, the goal is to trade less (at least for those with a longer term view). Let the valuations come to you and do not worry about the swings. It […]
December 14 Biotech Update
Volume and news is starting to dry up but there were some interesting tidbits to talk about but they are more interesting than really game changing. In any case, we are quickly approach the holiday lull but on the positive side that means we are closer to the JPM rush of news. 1. CLLS reported […]
December 11 Biotech Update
There is no ASH hangover quite yet but it usually comes pretty quick after the conference. Perhaps this year will be different given that outside of a few good days, there was no real run up into the conference. There is a lot to talk about and so I will take the next couple days […]
September 21 Biotech Update
The sector did get some momentum with the news yesterday but it still feels like a grind that is in a holding pattern, although clearly not like the broader market that has done nothing. There is nothing new today, which might give us a better sense if there is an underlying bid in the sector […]
September 20 Biotech Update
We are starting to get some meaningful data this week and while I suspect it will have some broader upside today, I will be curious to see if the sector moves and maintains a move. It seems to me that everyone is really wanting to see the AXON data and if any data is going […]
April 4 Biotech Update
The sector had a little bit of a down draft late yesterday and I suspect that it is related to the news that TrumpCare may not be dead. Clearly there are actions being held to revive the legislation but we are likely a year plus from any real passage even if they are able to […]
