I think choppy might have been the best description of the market at this point. This makes sense give the competing influences on both the market and economy. I would not be surprised to see this chop continue or perhaps even see some consolidation. The broader market seems in a little more precarious position than […]
November 19th Biotech Update
Nothing crazy happening in the market at this point. I do not see anything that compelling low or high and I think the market continues to struggle with the hope of the vaccines versus the pain of an out of control spread. There is likely a point where the immediate term gets so bad that […]
November 18th Biotech (and MLP) Update
So the market continues to look good including the sector that is pushing all time highs. While I often say the trend is your friend (and it is), it might also be time to pull out another saying. When markets are making all time highs, the most likely outcome is to continue to make marginal […]
November 4th Biotech Update
The election is (sort of) over. While it ended up being closer than the polls indicated, it appears that Biden will win barring some unprecedented court decision to invalidate large numbers of legally cast votes. The closeness of the election, however, makes the Senate now lean Republican. I suspect both Georgia contests will have to […]
October 14th Biotech Update
Not much is actually happening in terms of news and yet the sector continues to move higher. We are getting multiple days of green in a row and breaking out into new highs. I do not think there is anything fundamental driving this move and it seems to simply be momentum and technical. Clearly we […]
October 12 Biotech Update
We are not starting the week with new M&A but we are starting the week with strong momentum both with the sector and the broader market. Of course, very strong broader markets have not necessarily been great in recent weeks for the sector but there is certainly a chance that we break to new highs. […]
September 14th Biotech Update
We are back baby! This is the M&A that the sector has been wanting. If this cannot break the sector out of the downtrend and push it back to highs (if not higher) then not much else could. The ideal scenario would be a push above the recent lower high today but we were pretty […]
August 13th Biotech Update
Well, the sector was able to do a little bit of a kick save yesterday but we are certainly not out of the woods. Once would have to think that lower is still the more likely trend until we stop setting lower highs. On the positive side, we still have not set a lower low […]
August 12th Biotech Update
Well, we got that quick move that I expected after the sector had been drifting for awhile and unfortunately it was lower. So now what? I still think we will need to test the recent lows to see if we break below and make a lower low (worst case scenario) but if that holds then […]
August 5th Biotech Update
We are really close to breaking above the recent high and that would be very positive as it stops a lower high from being formed. It has not happened yet and we could still fail but if the momentum continues it would be even more positive as it would have been done without M&A being […]
August 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update
Well, that was quite the bounce yesterday. The morning start off well especially given the lack of market moving news but then a grind higher turned into a run. I would look at the highs of July 27th and July 28th as key levels. Despite the great move, if we cannot break above those levels […]
July 15th Biotech Update
I think it is clear now that it was COVID that worried the market earlier this week. The reaction to the vaccine news has been pretty clear and positive. While it is possible that the market would have had a similar reaction if the selloff was China driven, it seems more likely that worries about […]
July 14th Biotech Update
Yesterday was an odd day. We started off consistently strong and ended up quite weak. There were two pieces of news in the afternoon that happened close to the same time: two of the larger California school districts going online for the fall and the US rejecting all of China’s South China Sea claims. I […]
July 2nd Biotech Update
The news seems to have dried up as we head into the long weekend. We had “positive” jobs data that seems to be sparking a rally. While the data are good, it is also on the back of the expanded epidemic so it seems a little unsustainable as there have been repeated closings in the […]
June 24th Biotech Update
Clearly we have a breakout in the sector. The next phase will be the retest of the breakout and the old resistance should act as new support. How far do we run until the retest? I would think that we are probably closer to the start of that retest than continued moves higher but we […]
June 22nd Biotech Update
The sector is trying to break out of its range to the upside. Not only did it trade above the range on Friday but close above it. The ultimate confirmation would be a run above the range and then come back and test of the old resistance for support. So at this point I see […]
June 15th Biotech Update
The sector is right at a point of decision. The XBI is below the $100 level but if you look back it peaked at the $99 level late December and again in mid-February. A close below $99 signals a breaking of the recent range and I would become more bearish. We have not quite done […]
June 4th Biotech (and MLP) Update
I would like to say something really interesting is happening in the sector or there is some great opportunity but the fundamental news is sort of like the sector- flat. It seems to me there is a dual whammy hitting the sector that is acting as some headwinds that are holding it back. First, MRNA […]
June 1st Biotech Update
With all that is going on in the country this weekend it seems odd that we are basically opening up flat. Riots. COVID. China tensions. Any of those you would think would be enough to weaken the market and yet the market open relatively resilient. Of course, it remains early and we could easily weaken […]
May 29th Biotech Update
We got a lot of ASCO data to sort through as well as stock reactions. It is going to take awhile just to look through all the data and probably weeks for the sector to digest all the news. I doubt we will see the data move the sector out of its range but sometimes […]
