I am back, although I am lucky to have power as most of Baton Rouge is still without power (which means without AC when the heat index is over 100 degrees). I have not been able to follow the sector too closely but it looks like we are having a nice little breakout with some […]
August 25th Biotech Update
We lost a little bit of the momentum yesterday but we have had a short strong move and so a little pause is not crazy. Of course a little pause to refresh is different than a move back towards the lower end of the range. Yes, my assumption will remain that we are in that […]
August 5th Biotech Update
Things got a little better for the sector with some green but we really need to get some momentum and accelerate to the upside. It is too easy for the bears to sell any rally and short without any real fear that the sector might move against a short position (or move against it more […]
June 10th Biotech Update
I think we are set to make that push to the $140-$141 level on the XBI. We got some nice momentum and if we get to that level the sector would probably be stretched to the upside and I can see a pause/pullback. This is not bad as it creates the opportunity for a pullback […]
May 26th Biotech Update
I almost feel like we are stuck in a no news period until earnings but then I remember that we still have ASCO coming up (even though I am not sure it will provide very many fireworks for the sector). I have been talking about the sector being potentially in a trading zone but it […]
May 13th Biotech Update
The sector has been doing pretty well the past couple of days and that is in light of the broader market being pretty bad. That could be good sign and ideally we need to see that outperformance to continue on days in which the broader market is green. Today could be the day to test […]
May 3rd Biotech Update
Have we broken the downtrend? We are certainly in a much better position than before. We have not made a lower low and we are above what was the previous lower high. In other words, the clear downtrend is no longer that clear. We have not established a new uptrend but we are in the […]
April 1st Biotech (and MLP) Update
The market certainly feels like it is in a better place and perhaps that is true for the broader market but I still do not see us out of the woods for the sector. Despite a good bounce the past couple of days we are still in what could be a downtrend and until we […]
March 26th Biotech (and MLP) Update
Yesterday turned out better than I expected. It was a nice reversal but we have seen this story before and the sector simply has not been able to build off of these moves. So I had been looking to see if the sector set a higher low and higher high to signal a new bullish […]
February 11th Biotech Update
I guess it is escalator up and elevator down sort of market. It was a little strange to see the drop midday on what I could not see as any news. Obviously most see the market as extended and overvalued and do not want to be the last one holding when the correction occurs. I […]
February 5th Biotech Update
The market seems like the prototypical market at highs tends to make marginal new highs. If that is the case, then the assumption would be a continued slow grind higher until the elevator down correction. In some ways, it also means that we are unlikely to get those price dislocations that make for the really […]
January 29th Biotech Update
Yesterday was interesting and today it seems to have settled down a little. As I noted all week this was going to cause some volatility in the market and it has. I am still not sure if the supposed rise of reddit finance (so to speak) changes the market in any way. It could very […]
January 28th Biotech Update
I was right about being careful in the market given the potential quick moves and dislocations. I think those warnings are the same today. There seems to be a lot of issues with large funds and then you have masses of retail investors piling into stocks trying to squeeze them and continue the party. It […]
January 5th Biotech Update
Was not the best start to the week and perhaps the sector is looking a little tired but I do not see anything to signal that the bull market is over. To me this looks more like a bull market consolidation than the start of some major pullback or start of a bear market. There […]
December 21st Biotech Update
It is going to be a holiday shortened week both in the markets and in my writing. There should not be any major news (I would think) but I will write today and tomorrow and then take a holiday break until next Monday. In any case, I think we have already seen the biggest news […]
December 9th Biotech Update
The sector has not had the typical post-conference weakness, which is good to see. Also, there have been a good set of secondaries with the sector still being strong. It is not strange to see secondaries pop up during strong moves as that is pretty typical. What is interesting is that we usually see these […]
December 7th Biotech Update
So far we do not have an ASH selloff, which is nice to see. I think in general we remain with some seasonal and broader market tailwinds and that should take us through JPM in January. In fact, we are probably getting close to the M&A speculation time but remember that last year was actually […]
December 3rd Biotech (and MLP) Update
Sorry for the delay but we are dealing with kids that were exposed to COVID and having to get them tested and now they are back in virtual school. I am sure many of you have dealt with similar (or worse) issues and thankfully for us it is just added time but it certainly has […]
November 30th Biotech Update
As I have said there will be a tug of war in the market and so far vaccine hopes and seasonality are winning over the growing pandemic. One really has to worry about an out of control pandemic combined with a holiday season but the market is not quite ready to worry about it. I […]
November 23 Biotech Update
The market dynamics remain the same. We are entering what tends to be a seasonally positive period of the year, which might add some tailwind to the broader market. While I still think the market is going to focus on the prospects of the vaccine coming next year as opposed to the out of control […]
