The sector continues to do well but there seems to be a bifurcation occurring where the SMID are outperforming the large caps. Usually when investors come back into a sector they start higher on the capital scale as those are typically cash flow positive, reasonable valuations, and a safer way to increase exposure. This does […]
August 22 Biotech Update
The sector is doing well on the consummation of the long courtship of MDVN. I will be back with my commentary this week but am still not quite back to the usual routine. The kids still do not have school, so these will be shorter than usual this week but next week when everything is […]
August 10 Biotech Update
The market continues to consolidate and I expect this trend to continue over the near term. If I am correct that this is simply a consolidation in a new bull market for the sector (and it is difficult to make that claim given how bad the sector has been but at this point I am […]
August 9 Biotech Update
We certainly have seen some recent under-performance by the sector but given recent strength and run of bad news (trial failures, secondaries, and so on) this is not stunning. So I do not read anything meaningful into this weakness as long as we maintain a higher low and given the recent price action that would […]
May 9 Biotech Update
We have some news to start that week that all else being equal would be positive catalysts. The price action today off of the news should be a good tell as to whether sentiment has shifted a little in the sector but I would wait to see where we end the day not where we […]
May 2 Biotech Update
It was not a great end of the week for the sector. Trading has not been good and earnings were fine but not exciting. As much as the sector has bounced from its recent lows, it still does not feel like sentiment has changed dramatically. It as an odd dynamic that I will talk about […]
February 12 Biotech Update
The market remains crazy and the sector is filled with odd moves. Yesterday seemed to be a good day of outperformance for the large caps and today they are red while the market is green. There were some good movers in SMID yesterday and today but not a real rhyme or reason for who outperforms […]
February 11 Biotech Update
The markets remain in turmoil despite a nice start (but poor finish) yesterday. Interestingly it seemed yesterday at least that large cap biotech outperformed the broader market. Obviously it could very easily be an oversold bounce but in a world of limited earnings growth, one could make the case that some of the large cap […]
January 28 Biotech Update
The market and sector did not like the FOMC decision or perhaps the wording of the decision. The sector remains in a precarious position. It has already fallen a lot but it remains at critical long term trend lines and if they break we could only be halfway through the decline. There was some talk […]
December 30 Biotech Update
Nothing newsworthy for the sector has happened in the past day. We had a nice rally the other day and perhaps that continues with a positive bias into the end of the year as investors and traders finish up the year but with volumes drying up it is really a toss-up how it will trade. […]
November 30 Biotech Update
We are heading into ASH and that is sure to be the topic of much discussion but I find it more and more difficult to trade these medical conferences as everyone is trying to trade these medical conferences. Not only do you need to accurately figure out the catalyst but also need to accurately figure […]
November 25 Biotech Update
Trading is slow this week but news is not. Yesterday was better but I still think it is too early to call the sector back but at the very least I believe is has found its footing. Interestingly it seems that the SMID caps are outperforming the larger caps (finally) although they have a lot […]
November 9 Biotech Update
My daughter made it through surgery with flying colors, so I have time for a quick note. I do not want to focus on individual companies but a broader theme that could be developing. Are we seeing the end of biotech leadership, why, and what does it mean? 1. Broadly speaking, I would argue that […]
October 14 Biotech Update
I am not sure if the sector sold off yesterday as simply a normal short term move or whether there were real concerns about the democratic debate. I suspect a portion of the selling was likely related to the debate, which is silly as I have noted before politicians have moved on from the pricing […]
September 29 Biotech Update
I want to get out a quick note this morning as I am not sure I will have time for my usual Wednesday note and there has been some interesting news. The biggest issue remains the macro and the selloff in the sector. This is beyond weak hands and this is the liquidation of large […]
September 25 Biotech Update
The sector continues to get hit with the broader market. It feels like the sector is still facing the headwinds from the pricing discussions but as it fades into the background, the headwind will lift. Of course, it has to fade into the background and that remains an open question. My base case remains that […]
INCY: Predicting Success in Pancreatic Cancer
Incyte Pharmaceuticals’ lead drug Jakafi (Ruxolitinib) is approved for the treatment of the bone marrow disorders Myelofibrosis and Polycythemia Vera. It is expected to reach blockbuster sales despite these relatively niche indications. The company has ambitions to expand Jakafi into solid tumors with Pancreatic cancer leading the way. Top line data from a Phase 2 […]
September 11 Biotech Update
Macro seems to be slowly fading into the background but note that I said slowly as it will likely take more time and it should remain meaningful in the short term. Of course, fading into the background does not mean all is clear for the next move higher as I read the market as simply […]
September 2 Biotech Update
The market looks bad again. Even though we are having a mini rally this morning, the sellers appear to be in control so far this week. I still think China is a red herring and the market is pricing in a Fed rate hike and the potential the risk that it starts a deflationary spiral. […]
August 4 Biotech Update
Looks like the sector was saving the fireworks for today with a lot more news. The reaction so far seems a little tepid given the positives but it is early and I think some are a little worried about the broader market. The collapse in oil may unfortunately signal a return to the macro market […]
