Yesterday was a better day. The market was weak and yet the sector outperformed. That is quite the rare occasion. It had been such a brutal month, there was bound to be a day in which the selling eased. There was some news that could have driven the outperformance but was that simply an excuse […]
July 5th Biotech Update
I suspect we are going to have a slow week even though the holiday is over. The summer is generally going to be slow as people are out of office and with a holiday landing on a Tuesday, my hunch is that this week is going to be slow for even the summer. I do […]
May 18th Biotech Update
The FTC news with AMGN and HZNP was an awful way to start the week but in all honesty, the sector seems to have held up. The green day yesterday could be setting up a higher low, which assumes we make a higher high. I would not say the all clear has been signaled but […]
June 30th Biotech Update
Sorry, I missed writing on Monday as I try to stay as consistent as possible on Monday as I think it sets up the week. My daughter went on a beech vacation with her friend and their family late last week. Long story short, she got home sick and led to being physically ill, so […]
May 22nd Biotech Update
The ups and downs continue as we remain in what could be the developing range. I could be wrong but I think a range bound market would be the most frustrating and money losing market for the largest number of people and hence is the likely outcome. Money might just rotate between sectors moving them […]
January 17 Biotech Update
I suspect that the sector is setting up for a run at $100 on the XBI if not breaking above it. People expecting a JPM selloff on the lack of news (me included) were wrong and now the fear of missing out (FOMO) of a breakout to new highs might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The […]
November 25th Biotech Update
If it were not for some M&A this would be a quiet start to the week. I suspect that in the end it will be pretty low on fundamental news given the holiday week but we are off to a good start. This should provide even more support to the trend and the broken record […]
April 11th Biotech Update
We are starting to get some news (from EASL) but still nothing that appears compelling for the sector. Sure, these are going to be potentially stock moving but it appears unlikely to have a broader read through to the sector. 1. VKTX presented update data and the new information was really about safety. The drug […]
February 21 Biotech Update
Resistance is acting like resistance. It looked early that we might be peaking above it but clearly that is not the case. These sort of false breakouts (and breakdowns) are killers in range bound markets as it can get one to trade too early. My mantra in these scenarios is that the sector will be […]
February 19 Biotech Update
The sector might be peaking its head above the top end of the range. The ideal set up for breakout are moves above the range and then successfully testing the upper end of the previous range where it would now act as support instead of resistance. At this point, we look to be moving out […]
January 11 Biotech Update
Everyone continues to expect a pullback and yesterday looked like it would be the day that starts the correction but we ended up green again. This has been on the of the strongest JPM weeks I remember (at least from a price action perspective). Yesterday is another brick in the wall of the idea that […]
January 9 Biotech Update
The sector move seems to be losing some steam. This is not unexpected nor bad as these overbought conditions need to be reset. The real key going forward is not how much further this move can stretch higher but whether or not we can form a lower high. That will be absolutely key as a […]
December 6 Biotech Update
China is back in the news and for good or ill, the sector fundamentals do not matter. Right now it is all about China and the broader market will pull the sector higher or lower. At this point with no trade deal and with the arrest of the Huawei CFO (the daughter of the CEO […]
July 20 Biotech Update
Not a ton of news to end the week as the sector continues to drift around. This is not completely surprising given the earnings coming next week. I will be out of town on vacation all of next week, so there will be no updates. I will catch up the week after next but on […]
July 19 Biotech Update
The sector has hit a rough patch as we get into earnings season. The market itself has not been stellar, so I would not read this as some early take on the big set of earnings next week. In fact, large biotech has tended to do relatively well on these sell offs so despite the […]
June 13 Biotech Update
The sector had a decent day, although participation was not great. We seem to be on the verge of breaking higher (at least in the XBI) but it will be difficult to do unless the rally is broader in its scope. Of course, one cannot complain too much given that we are generally moving higher […]
June 6 Biotech Update
The sector did a little better yesterday but given the strength of the market, it is not a great performance. That being said another couple days in the green and perhaps this year will be different and we will not see the post-ASCO selloff. Obviously it is early but something to keep an eye on […]
September 21 Biotech Update
The sector is certainly heating up and we still seem to be at the point where good news is rewarded and bad news is creating isolated damage. Not only do we have the tailwinds that I have been talking about but last week hedge funds were underweight the sector and continuing to sell. Every day […]
April 8 Biotech Update
While the sector did not do great on an absolute basis yesterday, it clearly outperformed the broader market. Given the relatively underperformance in the first quarter (the biggest underperformance for the NBI on record), it is not surprising to see it catch up especially with the positive news we have seen. I suspect this patter […]
November 13 Biotech Update
It has been a tough couple of days with pretty broad weakness but we will see how we end the week as many stocks have had a decent run so a pause is not unexpected (or bearish- yet). I am still not convinced the rallies have not been short covering and if we are to […]
