Financial markets talk about a lot of headwinds to the economy. China devaluation, negative S&P earnings, presidential race, central bank actions, European banking problems, Japan, oil, etc. One that should be frontline news… more than the Trump tape, more than Kim Kardashian being (fake?) mugged, more than a backup QB kneeling for the national anthem. […]
Catatonic Economics – Brexit!
In response to Dave, “someone will nail the impact”… I figured I’d give my shot at it. My prediction last article was that sovereign debt along with other headwinds would cause a correction in the markets before year’s end. It took a lot shorter than I thought it would, and admittedly not for the reasons […]
Catatonic Economics – The Four Letter Word
*** “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” – John Maynard Keynes *** Economics is called the dismal science for a reason. The real reason is because Thomas Malthus predicted that the population will grow exponentially while food can only grow additively, and therefore the world will be overpopulated in short […]
Catatonic Economics
***”Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions. *** One contribution I make to the CRG team is my background in economics. I have a pervasive interest in macroeconomics and am close to getting my Masters in Economics. I have worked for an economic indicator at the US Census Bureau, and work as […]
The XBI In The Take Or Break Zone!
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)–NYSE We will maintain our focus on the XBI as the biotech barometer. After the double bottom around 59 points a month ago, the XBI start printing a higher high and a higher low, the first step in the new uptrend that we are looking for. Looking again at […]
June 18 Biotech Update
The summer is seasonally weak, especially after the EHA and ASCO- right? I am not sure of the exact catalyst for the move today but it is certainly moving the sector higher (with the broader market as well). There was not a lot of news, so perhaps this is simply the end of the buyer […]
May 12 Biotech Update
The sector is being hit this morning, although it is really the market that is weak and taking the sector with it. Yesterday the sector did a good job holding up despite the weak market and hopefully we can extend that relative strength but the early selling seems broad based. Ideally we would like to […]
March 30 Biotech Update
It looks like we have all survived the great biotech sell off of 2015. To be honest, I am not sure this really counts as a sell off (yet). We have been spoiled by the steady march higher and while this is a nice bounce, we were also very oversold in the short term. Add […]
March 20 Biotech Update
I believe there was some sort of data that came out today that had people talking. LOL. The BIIB data neatly dovetailed into biotech valuation discussion and so I want to spend time talking about both the BIIB data and valuations. I want to try and separate them as while they are clearly linked, they […]
Quick update: The IBB – Negative Divergence
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) – Nasdaq As tweeted several time last and early this week, signs of weakness in the IBB Signs of weakness in the $IBB ..Start forming a Bearish “Rising Wedge” ..only if breaking down the lower line & 50MA pic.twitter.com/MPmn1DNF2T — Joe (@GantosJ) February 2, 2015 The “Rising Wedge” is a bearish pattern, […]
IBB – XLV Biotech Sector Post JP-Morgan Conference
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) – Nasdaq Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)–NYSE The best indicators for our biotech portfolios are the biotechnology indices IBB, NBI, XBI or XLV. We will maintain our focus on the IBB as the biotech barometer and choose the XLV as a hedge to our biotech portfolio . As mentioned […]
Revisiting the Bubble Debate
With this week’s moves in the market and with the JP Morgan Healthcare conference finished, I think its time to bring up the debate again about whether or not biotech may be in a bubble. While most are familiar with the outstanding sector performance, lets just put it into context a bit. Since the March […]
August 18 Biotech Update
The markets are rallying and taking everything with it (for the most part). The proximate reason seems to be that the Ukraine crisis did not escalate, which should not be a total surprise as I have been talking down that situation for awhile. That is not to say it could not escalate again but at […]
July 31 Biotech Update
The market has certainly been pretty poor since the spike on the GDP print, which is not a great near term signal. As would be expected biotechs are following the broader market lower but not really underperforming more than one would expect for a highly volatile sector. Of course the small caps are getting hit […]
July 18 Biotech Update
I am back after my three day trip to NYC and while it seemed that the sector took a hit, today’s action seems to be a good start to recapture a lot of the losses. My point is not that the pullback was insignificant but more that it seems more like a pause/pullback that refreshes […]
July 8 Biotech Update
Again there is not a lot of news outside of a marginally raised offer for SHPG but clearly the market is selling off. Is this the long awaited correction that I have been talking about? Perhaps. I think we need to see how stocks react to earnings to get a real sense. If stocks are […]
IBB – In the Decision Zone
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) – Nasdaq The best indicators for our biotech portfolios are the biotechnology indices IBB, NBI, XBI or XLV. We will maintain our focus on the IBB as the biotech barometer. And as mentioned in my last report ” IBB – Biotech Sector in The Despondency Point ” the emotions are playing an important role […]
April 23 Biotech Update- Shooting Out of the Earnings Gate
This was a relatively slow news day (compared to yesterday and Monday) but there is still a lot to talk about with the large cap earnings. The sector did not responsd great but it is still early and I want to see how it closes before judging this reaction. In addition, the market backdrop was […]
April 15 Biotech Update
Another day and nothing to talk about except more selling. There is really nothing more to say at this point that has not already been said. There is a significant correction in the growth sector of the market and funds are hitting the sell button every day and it will continue despite the fundamentals of […]
April 14 Biotech Update-
It was a really slow day on the news front, which could simply relate to the start of a pre-holiday week. I did not think it would extend all the way to today but so far nothing major happening in the sector. I will touch on a couple of ideas but will keep this short […]
