Last Monday we were following a weak end to the previous week and I expected that to continue early in the week but instead we had a pretty strong rally. Last Friday was another weak day and so one would expect follow through but given last Monday, perhaps not. I am still convinced that the […]
February 7th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be in an odd spot. Fundamentals look fine and the trading is not awful but the chart looks precarious. We might have 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows right now. It almost looks like a broadening top but that usually sees higher highs as well as lower lowers. The chart […]
November 26 Biotech Update
The trend is your friend and while I expected a news to slow we got an unanticipated surprise. Positive news continues to hit the sector and the trend continues higher. I will never call the end of the trend until it confirmed but we have had a great move and macro has been pretty supportive […]
November 25th Biotech Update
If it were not for some M&A this would be a quiet start to the week. I suspect that in the end it will be pretty low on fundamental news given the holiday week but we are off to a good start. This should provide even more support to the trend and the broken record […]
July 24 Biotech Update
I am a little surprised that there was not more movement from the Senate drug pricing plan (which was later supported by the president). We finally have the outlines of what drug pricing reform will look like over the next couple years and it is generally good for the sector but there was limited reaction. […]
July 23 Biotech Update
This is an odd day in the market. You get the first important large cap earnings, which usually drives the rest of the sector but there is no connection. BIIB (which is discussed below) did well but the broader sector is grossly underperforming it and the broader market. Not exactly sure of the reason but […]
July 10th Biotech Update
The market is in an odd position in that it is doing well with macro having faded into the background. I would keep an eye on the Iran situation flaring again as the Iranians are likely to respond to the British seizure of one of their oil vessels and now Trump is talking about more […]
July 9 Biotech Update
I am back from vacation and have a couple of days to get as much work done before I am taking care of some family issues. I should have some time perhaps late next week but it will be hit or miss. In any case, there are some interesting points that I tangentially followed on […]
June 24 Market Update
The sector is in an interesting spot. Tensions with Iran remain elevated but did not escalate, which should lead to a risk on move and while the market was tepidly higher the sector is clearly underperforming. Usually risk-on benefits the sector and while one could argue that the elevated macro tensions remain a drag, there […]
June 14 Biotech Update
It is Friday again, so be on the lookout for those rumors or late day runners. A slow start to the morning in terms of price action but we are basically trading with the market (although the IBB showing some small relative strength compared to SPY and XBI). 1. There is an interesting contrast with […]
June 13 Biotech Update
I am back but honestly we are entering the summer quite period with little news to drive the sector higher or lower. We did get a break from the macro, which gave an interesting view of the underlying trends in the sector but outside of that it is low volume summer trading. Of course, macro […]
June 6 Biotech Update
Nothing has really changed. Oddly the sector is really underperforming the market today at the start, which is not good but at least we are seeing an end to the tight correlations. I still think everything is going to move with news on the Mexican tariffs. If they go into effect, then everything goes down. […]
April 23 Biotech Update
The sector has been struggling to say the least and when last I wrote, it was not clear to me the underlying cause, it is clear now (I will discuss below). We are obviously oversold in the short term and while we should bounce and recover as there is little fundamentally wrong with the sector, […]
April 11th Biotech Update
We are starting to get some news (from EASL) but still nothing that appears compelling for the sector. Sure, these are going to be potentially stock moving but it appears unlikely to have a broader read through to the sector. 1. VKTX presented update data and the new information was really about safety. The drug […]
February 5 Biotech Update
There might be reason for optimism in the sector. The XBI seems to be breaking above its recent range and the $80 level might have been support for this new move. That would certainly be the best case scenario as it would be a higher low ($80) and one that is a little higher than […]
January 11 Biotech Update
Everyone continues to expect a pullback and yesterday looked like it would be the day that starts the correction but we ended up green again. This has been on the of the strongest JPM weeks I remember (at least from a price action perspective). Yesterday is another brick in the wall of the idea that […]
October23 Biotech Update
It is unfortunate that the earnings weeks comes as the market seems to want to collapse. Industrial earnings are finally seeing the impact of the trade policies and now apparently it is a biotech issue. It is hard to see how the sector would avoid being pulled into a larger market sell-off regardless of the […]
October 22 Biotech Update
This should not be week of no news as we have the ESMO data to digest as well as a number of large cap earnings to work through. Unless there is some massive move in the market, it is hard to imagine that the sector does not trade on the news as opposed to following […]
October 12 Biotech Update
Not a lot in terms of news but certainly in terms of action. The selloff has been brutal but I think we are much closer to a bottom than many think. My question is not whether we get a nice short covering rally soon (I expect we do) but what happens after the shorts cover? […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I do not think there is much to say today outside of the obvious. The market is not looking good and we seem to be entering (or in the midst) of a broad market correction that is going to take everything down with it. Fundamentals are not going to matter in the near term. It […]
