I think we are finally out of the riskiest area and are setting up a potential to break the downtrend. I think trading on Friday broke the clear downtrend, but we probably want to see more before declaring it over. Of course, not having the downtrend is different than having an established uptrend. It would […]
August 28th Biotech Update
Is my belief that we make our way to the 52-week lows before finding support to start a trend higher in threat? Possibly. Is it strange that I would think that on what looks like one good start to a week? A little but I do think we have the potential to shift to a […]
May 18th Biotech Update
The FTC news with AMGN and HZNP was an awful way to start the week but in all honesty, the sector seems to have held up. The green day yesterday could be setting up a higher low, which assumes we make a higher high. I would not say the all clear has been signaled but […]
May 16th Biotech Update
The sector absolutely cannot catch a break. Everything was looking good and solid and now the proverbial rug has been pulled out. There is no recovering today. It will be red but the broader move is not done (at least it does not have to be). I think as long as this pullback stays above […]
April 17th Biotech Update
Last week I wanted to see a nice move above the $80 level on the XBI as a way to perhaps setup a little bull run. It failed but today is certainly different. The move today was sort of what I was looking for last week and we need to stay above the $80 level. […]
January 30th Biotech Update
I feel like a broken record as we start yet another week with the potential to break out to the upside but not the best start in that attempt. There is not a lot to cover today, so it will be quick but we do have earnings that could be an excuse for the move […]
December 12th Biotech Update
I think we are clearly in the range given the news flow and the market reaction. It is not necessarily bad but I think one has to play the range until shown otherwise. This has been a pretty long time in the range and so the break out (up or down) should be pretty clear […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
November 8th Biotech Update
We remain range bound with some weakness to end last week and some indecision to start this week. I still think we make a move to the upper end of this range at some point and I do not think the first attempt to breakout will be successful. It is possible but my running assumption […]
February 1st Biotech Update
It is an interesting start to the week and one that will also have the start of earnings season for biotechs. The GME saga continues with both a push to keep GME high but also a push to move into SLV. I am more interested in the SLV plays in that it provides a better […]
September 18 Biotech Update
I have been looking around for real meaningful news this morning and there does not seem to be anything compelling. As such, I expect a trend day with the sector more or less trading in line with the broader markets. The sector seems to be close to another break out having bounced off the $85 […]
August 21 Biotech Update
Happy eclipse day. There is little news both in the sector and in the market. This is not necessarily a bad thing as it might give us a sense as to whether there is an underlying bid or offer in the market. Barring any news hitting during the day, I suspect we drift on low […]
August 18 Biotech Update
The whole market is looking heavy and the IWM broke below key support. The sector is not going to be able to hold up if this continues but luckily there is still the rising 200 day just below $300 on the IBB that could be additional support. So would the IBB breaking below $300 surprise […]
August 7 BiotechUpdate
We have some interesting earnings news but this will more be catch up from the last week. My broader view is that despite any positive or negative news the sector is more likely than not to retest the breakout levels. There is some support at the current levels so there might be a near term […]
June 15 Biotech Update
The market is certainly continuing its recent weakness (especially NASDAQ) but today biotech is down with it. Is this the start of another move to the lower end of its range or is this the pause for the breakout of the range? If history is any guide this is the start of a move to […]
May 24 Biotech Update
The sector is having issues. If it is not in oversold conditions it certainly feels that way. Part of the issue is the traditional reasons to sell biotech but it is not as if these companies have been releasing stellar news recently. In any case, this seems to be creating decent opportunities. 1. First a […]
May 11 Biotech Update
There are a couple of quick hits that I want to get today as we have some news but we are also getting closer to ASCO. I suspect ASCO will progressively take up more of the discussion, so I do want to place some ideas out there before ASCO gets dissected to death. 1. In […]
May 10 Biotech Update
The news keeps coming in this week as the sector and market looks for a direction. I do not see anything happening that is fundamentally changing the story for the sector, where best case scenario is it performs in-line with market and good catalysts are rewarded. The problem at this point is we do not […]
May 8 Biotech Update
With the earning seasons continuing it is becoming clear that the sector is going to bifurcate. Growth is becoming increasingly difficult to find as the ability to grow through price is all but gone. As such, I expect continued low growth quarters with a selective few biotechs with real growth. This is going to put […]
October 11 Biotech Update
Looks like we are going to move from good to bad with earnings warnings likely to weigh on the sector today. I think there was always some concern about earnings heading into the upcoming reports and this has only been exacerbated today. 1. In terms of the earnings warnings that came out (ILMN and HZNP), […]
