The market had a nice follow through yesterday, although for some reason I do not really trust this rally (yet). It would be nice to see a couple days of flat trading but clearly we are in a different regime with volatility this high. Expect more wild intra-day moves even on the days that end […]
February 12 Biotech Update
The rule of thumb is that markets never bottom on a Friday but we at least got a short term bottom as the market rallied into the close. Whether this was simply the bottom of a dead cat bounce or “the” bottom of this correction remains to be seen but given heavily oversold conditions, it […]
February 7 Biotech Update
So it looks like we are going to be tied to the broader market for a little while. We are still in the middle of earnings (although most large caps have reported) but it seems unlikely that anything meaningful will be coming out in the near term that would drive meaningful relatively under or over […]
February 6 Biotech Update
There is not a ton of sector specific news but the broader markets are taking everything down. The XIV is closing, which might have unknown consequences. It is only a relatively small ETF but who knows if it will cause short covering and forced liquidation of other positions. It is possible that the collateral damage […]
February 2 Biotech Update
It looks like the correction continues. Fundamental news does not seem to be matter a lot this week, which seems like typical price action during a correction. This does not seem sector specific and I doubt that it becomes anything more than a correction in a larger bull market but that does not mean it […]
January 26 Biotech Update
The market is relentless. Just as it is important to buy when the market seems to be going down forever, it is also important to sell on these sort of rips higher. The selling at the high levels is always more difficult for me, so I want to spend some time today talking about potential […]
January 18 Biotech Update
We had a little ice storm down here that has shut the town down for a couple days (I snuck into the office today), so I missed some interesting news. I will focus on the M&A as there are a couple of aspects that make it interesting. 1. Reports were that CELG was in negotiations […]
January 3 Biotech Update
Yesterday had a nice start to the year, which seemed to be part of a broader rotation in the nasdaq. There was some “news” that I want to highlight but the bulk of today will be another non-consensus 2018 idea. 1. The FAERS released an update to its database of adverse events reports and it […]
January 2 Biotech Update
Welcome to the New Year full of hopes and questions. In the lead up to JPM (and likely a slow build up in news as companies try to take the spotlight earlier and earlier every year), I will spend the week on broad 2018 themes and thoughts. Of course, if news happens I will focus […]
December 8 Biotech Update
Finally, he sector responded well to good news and held those gains. That bodes well heading into ASH (assuming more positive news) but we obviously cannot give all the gains back today. There is not a lot of news heading into ASH but that is likely to change this weekend. 1. GILD bought a private […]
December 6 Biotech Update
The sector and stocks are going to give everyone whiplash. Despite their being some out performers, it seems like every move higher gets smashed later in the day. There are too many stocks to count that make a nice move higher only to end the day red. As I noted yesterday, it is unclear the […]
November 29 Biotech Update
The sector seems to have gotten its footing a little and while that does not mean it will shoot higher, it does seem to have stopped the decline. As I noted before both ASH and JPM can be stock moving with JPM usually a very strong period for the sector as companies save good news […]
November 13 Biotech Update
Another week and another noticeable lack of M&A. At this point, we are so use to nothing happening that it seems like a normal week (which it is). Even though I enter every week with the expectation that nothing will be done, it still surprises me that the large caps that are getting destroyed because […]
October 27 Biotech Update
It has been an absolutely brutal earing season for the sector and for pretty good reason but you have also seen some babies being thrown out with the bathwater. Given the selling that has occurred, it is a natural reaction to assume these are buys or a bounce is coming but I prefer to sit […]
October 24 Biotech Update
This is the start of the wave of earnings and the sector is right at a critical support level. These earnings will determine (or most likely will determine) whether or not we bounce higher from this support for the next leg higher or break lower. So in some ways the reaction to the earnings is […]
October 11 Biotech Update
More of the same. The sector seems to be content to drift on low volume, which is pretty consistent with the broader market and the lack of fundamental news. Odds are this is the calm before the storm with the most likely set of news coming from earnings but even that should not be completely […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I was in my office yesterday to write but there is really nothing happening in the sector that is exceptionally newsworthy. I was hoping we would have some news today but it looks like we are in a bit of a lull. The good news is that it will not last too much longer as […]
September 29 Biotech Update
The sector is off to a good start but it is a relatively slow news day but the news was certainly good. It will be interesting to see how the sector closes as given the recent strength we have not seen M&A buzz and rumors take off. That is an old bull market staple with […]
September 15 Biotech Update
It still looks to me that the sector is acting less like a sector and more like an aggregation of individual stocks. That is always true (it is not a stock market but a market of stocks) but usually there is a rising (or lowering) tide that raises (or lowers) all boats effect. I find […]
August 31 Biotech Update
The good news and move for the sector continues. In isolation the move higher seems a stretch in terms of the fundamental news that we have seen the past week. The news has been good but we have had weeks with better news and did not have this reaction. Clearly sentiment has changed in the […]
