The sector might be peaking its head above the top end of the range. The ideal set up for breakout are moves above the range and then successfully testing the upper end of the previous range where it would now act as support instead of resistance. At this point, we look to be moving out […]
February 12 Biotech Update
We have some interesting news today (positive and negative) with some interesting read through. I still think the base case is that the sector is in a range until proven otherwise and there is nothing in the price action to indicate anything different. 1. The biggest news is obviously the GILD miss on NASH. This […]
February 6 Biotech Update
The sector faded yesterday and seems to be in a little range between $80 and $86. This is not necessarily a bad thing after the big bounce we had. Sitting in this range resetting the chart and building a base of support is not bad for the longer term. It is certainly better than charging […]
February 5 Biotech Update
There might be reason for optimism in the sector. The XBI seems to be breaking above its recent range and the $80 level might have been support for this new move. That would certainly be the best case scenario as it would be a higher low ($80) and one that is a little higher than […]
January 17 Biotech Update
The grind in place or higher option remains possible with the market. It will be interesting to see how the approach of earning season pressures traders. Does the lack of a correction before earning season pressure traders to chase or does it lead traders to take some risk of the table to avoid losing their […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The broader market is finally supportive of the sector and barring a reversal we should start to see a nice run up into JPM next week. At the very least I can see the XBI making it to $74 with a decent chance it break that next week and retests the $80 level. An inability […]
December 11 Biotech Update
The market did a lot better to start the week than I would have thought and that strength continues today. At this point, I think everyone does not really trust the market (I fall in that camp) but does that mean then that the sellers on this pop get burned? Everyone expects the move higher […]
December 6 Biotech Update
China is back in the news and for good or ill, the sector fundamentals do not matter. Right now it is all about China and the broader market will pull the sector higher or lower. At this point with no trade deal and with the arrest of the Huawei CFO (the daughter of the CEO […]
November 26 Biotech Update
After a nice long holiday break, I figured there might be some more news to start the week but apparently not. The sector is off to a good start but it seems macro driven in that it is simply following the broader markets higher. As long as the broader market remains positive, I suspect the […]
September 20th Biotech Update
Still a boring market in terms of news. The sector appears to have successfully defended the bottom end of its range but one could argue it done so simply by performing in-line with a strong broad market. Given the broader strength it would have been an awful signal to breakdown but regardless of the reason, […]
September 12th Biotech Update
The sector is certainly struggling and its inability to generate any consistent buying interest after the sell-off is certainly worrisome. All of that being said there are so many names that have been red everyday that there has to be a snap back rally at a minimum. CELG has lost over $1.2B in market cap […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Up, down, up, down, and repeat. Yesterday was green so today is most likely to be red. While it is difficult to discern a trend in such a low volume, choppy market, it does appear that the reds days are a little more severe and consistent than the green. It sort of makes one wonder […]
July 31 Biotech Update
I am still trying to catch up on all the earnings and happenings last week but I wanted to talk about two broad observations. In some ways, I benefited from not being able to watch the price action last week and only really looked at the news. In general, the price action does not reflect […]
July 16 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news this morning so I will keep it quick. We will have some earnings but large pharma tends to not be a leading indicator for biotech earnings but we will certainly watch to see if there is anything meaningful in the earnings or how the respective stocks react to the earnings. […]
May 23 Biotech Update
This looks to be a macro day for the markets with I believe China fears percolating again. Unfortunately, these macro down days seem to hit the sector whereas the macro up days have limited effect. Perhaps today is the day that the sector outperforms on a macro down day but I would not hold my […]
May 3 Biotech Update
There was a relative lull in the news yesterday and today but I would argue that the sector held up pretty well despite the GILD miss. That either means that GILD is less meaningful for the sector or that the drumbeat of disappointing earnings has priced in pretty negative views of the sector. In any […]
May 2 Biotech Update
It does not seem like today is going to be a good day for the sector but we have to see how it all plays out. There is some important earnings that might have import for the broader sector. 1. GILD had an absolute awful quarter. The only positive was that the CART crushed expectations […]
April 30 Biotech Update
I have a lot to catch up on this week but wanted to start this morning with a couple of points. We are going to be getting a lot of additional earnings this week and so far they have been a mixed bag. There are a couple of interesting points that have come out so […]
April 19 Biotech Update
We are starting to enter into earnings season, which will pick up next week. This will obviously be driving price action and there is usually a little more risk/volatility in 1Q earnings given the donut whole. This happens every year and you would expect that people would understand by now but every year there is […]
March 23 Biotech Update
It seems like the market does not like 19th century economic policies, although I think it is likely more than simply the tariffs. The market has risen despite numerous political risks and now it seems to be more accurately reflecting the risks that arose the past 18 months. So it is not just the tariffs, […]
