It seems like this week is setup for a nice counter trend rally. We might actually get a face ripping rally. Why? While the virus continues to spread, a lot of spread is now priced into expectations. The market is oversold. We are likely to see continued spread but nothing to put the epidemic to […]
February 28th Biotech Update
We in a macro market. COVID days up and COVID days down. I think it is going to be difficult to find stocks that run counter to the macro moves, ie there will be days when the market moves higher and COIVD names lower and vice versa. I think the only way to avoid that […]
February 24th Biotech Update
As I have been saying COVID risk will re-enter the market when (if) it expands outside of China and we now have 4 potential non-China epidemics in the works with Japan, South Korea, Italy and Iran. The weekend did not see any of these potential risks decrease and so we open the week lower. Traders […]
February 7th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be in an odd spot. Fundamentals look fine and the trading is not awful but the chart looks precarious. We might have 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows right now. It almost looks like a broadening top but that usually sees higher highs as well as lower lowers. The chart […]
February 5 Biotech Update
So the sell off last week seemed like the market looking for news to sell off on and today it seems the opposite. Corona virus fears continue to decline and we see a market rally and even oil is rallying today. I think market expectations are now that the epidemic will continue to grow in […]
February 3 Biotech Update
The market is off to a good start this morning but I suspect we fade. The old saying goes that markets never bottom on Fridays and typically when you have a big selloffs on Friday and a bounce Monday morning, the bounce ultimately fades and fails. We will see. We still have some macro that […]
January 27 Biotech Update
We are heading into a perfect storm for weakness, so stay nimble and/or hedged. The sector has had a nice run and was overbought. We had an uneventful JPM and are set for a series of post-JPM secondaries. The broader market is going to be weak given growing pandemic fears (and the real impact it […]
January 14 Biotech Update
It is all but confirmed that this is going to be the worse JPM in my memory on the deal front. I knew without CELG and AGN you had fewer companies to be buyers but this is still oddly weak for the remaining large caps. I honestly think the sector is holding up better than […]
January 8th Biotech Update
Iran responded and it went about as well as we could have hoped. The administration has a chance to de-escalate today and given the limited damage done with the attack last night, it should be a day of slowly decreasing tensions. Of course, what should happen and what actually happens can be different. I would […]
January 6 Biotech Update
I am glad to be back and will be in my usual daily update routine for the foreseeable future. I did not miss a ton of news but we certainly will have some soon enough with JPM next week. Before I left the sector was in a clear uptrend that was unbroken and I noted […]
August 2 Biotech Update
So it looked like yesterday was the day that all the good news was finally going to push the sector higher and we get the China tariffs macro news. Clearly the sector cannot catch a break and all of this good news now runs the risk of being buried in macro issues. There is still […]
July 31 Biotech Update
Well, this would have been sooner but as soon as I got to my office I had a train of people “needing” to talk to me immediately. I did not even have a chance to get coffee. In any case, I have a break from the people and can look at the market. It finally […]
July 26 Biotech Update
The market seems odd to me. Earnings so far have been good and the individual stocks are going higher on the earnings and holding onto the gains. The rest of the sector is struggling. Usually earnings will drive the sector higher or lower and rarely do you see good earnings with these many large caps […]
July 19th Biotech Update
I am back and need to catch up on the overall market and some sector news. I do want to focus today on a stock we all know and will have more broader sector commentary next week. I do think the sector is set up for a major move as it looks to have been […]
May 3 Biotech Update
The sector really is trading without a clear trend. Nothing that has happened this week has created a new trend but the range is narrowing, so I expect next week to provide more clarity as to the next move in the sector. A break below the lows this week likely triggers another leg lower otherwise […]
April 30 Biotech Update
The sector remains in a rut. The market is doing well with the bio-pharma the clear laggard. While the mania over the medicare for all worry seems to have abated, the sector clearly did not bounce back. It stopped the free fall but we are still well below the pre-mania levels. So what can we […]
April 25th Biotech Update
Yesterday really ended up offering no real direction. We could not quite rally but we also did not quite collapse. Everything that I talked about yesterday about the trading of the sector also applies today given the lack of clarity. I do think it is telling that these large cap earnings are basically being greeted […]
April 24th Biotech Update
Yesterday was good but not a good start to today. We were certainly due for a bounce and we should be looking for signs as to the next move. The upward trend has been broken but we have yet to clearly establish what the trend will be (higher or lower) or whether we will be […]
April 17 Biotech Update
The trend in the sector is moving onto more and more shaky ground. Breaking below $86.22 on the XBI (the most recent low) would end the streak of higher highs and higher lows. We still have some room but even at these levels (if we reverse) it looks like the trend is not quite as […]
February 26 Biotech Update
The sector has gapped above the range with merger Monday. Interestingly the last gap we saw in the XBI (JPM week) saw a gap and run instead of a test of the gap. While it is not impossible to see a similar gap and run in this case, we are already hitting what could be […]
