This has been quite the week with it starting by me stepping in dog vomit and then two days of outage of TD Ameritrade and not with that sorted out we get double CRLs for drugs that most probably thought would get approved. The XBI is more resilient to the new and stronger FDA than […]
July 31st Biotech Update
As much as I am worried about the market and sector, it is holding up so far and that support in the sector held as well. I think we lost the uptrend but we are not quite in a breakdown mode. It is possible that we transition from the uptrend into a consolidation/sideways trading for […]
July 10th Biotech Update
So the sector had its breakout above the old range. It was tested and held and now we seem to be establishing a new range or we could actually be setting up a trend move higher. It is hard to see anything really clear with the sector at this point. In some ways it depends […]
June 8th Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week in terms of news at least. The sector remains mired in its range, which with the news over the weekend seems a little surprising. My thought Sunday was that we would remain in the range but make a move to the higher end of the range as the news […]
May 27th Biotech Update
The sector sells off as later in the morning yesterday and on the open today. This remains consistent with my contention that we could be in for a range bound market. It is going to take a couple more round trips between the highs and lows of the range to really convince me (and likely […]
May 19th Biotech Update
What kills bulls runs in the sector? News can but the floodgate of secondaries opening is also a sure why these end. Yesterday saw the opening of the secondary window and while the first wave of secondaries does not always kill bull runs, it seems like we are at the beginning of the end. We […]
May 1st Biotech Update
We finally get two days in a row of the same move but unfortunately it is down. This is not completely surprising as it is completely reasonable that the sharp move higher in the market needs to pause and/or retrench a little. Of course, the tension and worry will be whether or not this is […]
April 30th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We continue with a back and forth week. I think we have alternated up and down days this entire week. This continues day and clearly we have a week of indecision. This is not necessarily bullish. Yes, it is bullish to basically digest a move higher with sideways action but the news this week has […]
April 29th Biotech Update
Yesterday was a retracement day and seemed almost like a rotation out of what was working (biotech) into lagging sectors (banking). Given the strength in the sector it should be able to handle the retracement before continuing the move higher. The only worry is the XBI compared to the IBB. The IBB had made new […]
April 24th Biotech (and MLP) Update
It seems like the market is slowly getting back to some sort of normalcy. The daily massive moves are slowly becoming more measured moves. Yes, volatility is still elevated and we still get large moves but the days of daily 5%-10% moves higher or lower with even larger swings seems to be slowly moving into […]
April 17th Biotech (and some MLP) Update
It took the whole week but perhaps we are finally get the move out the of range. I say maybe even though we are having a strong move on what could be good fundamental macro news. That being said I would not assume that this is real until we see the close. It would certainly […]
April 16th Biotech Update
It is a week of indecision despite having thought it would be a week of decision. It happens I guess but we are whiplashing higher and lower but, honestly, if I ignored the larger macro context and just looked at the XBI the chart the past couple weeks, it seems clearly in an uptrend. We […]
April 9th Biotech Update
We live in a macro world for sure. Another strong day as FOMO is coming to the forefront driving the market higher and higher. Is the market mis-pricing risk at this point? Perhaps but looking at the FXI it bottomed pretty early into their epidemic and that is probably a good analogy for the US […]
March 12 Biotech Update
Was going to do the chat but it seemed to not work. Will perhaps try again tomorrow. I am sure bandwidth right now on the interest is not great as demand has increased. In any case, my bearish lean has unfortunately been accurate. All of the negatives for the market remain. The President had an […]
March 4th Biotech Update
Who would have thought that a Joe Biden Super Tuesday victory would cure the corona virus? The market is rallying on the election as it seems to put Biden back in as the democrat frontrunner. I suspect that the market would strongly prefer Biden over Sanders as the economy and market actually did pretty well […]
March 2nd Biotech Update
It seems like this week is setup for a nice counter trend rally. We might actually get a face ripping rally. Why? While the virus continues to spread, a lot of spread is now priced into expectations. The market is oversold. We are likely to see continued spread but nothing to put the epidemic to […]
February 28th Biotech Update
We in a macro market. COVID days up and COVID days down. I think it is going to be difficult to find stocks that run counter to the macro moves, ie there will be days when the market moves higher and COIVD names lower and vice versa. I think the only way to avoid that […]
February 24th Biotech Update
As I have been saying COVID risk will re-enter the market when (if) it expands outside of China and we now have 4 potential non-China epidemics in the works with Japan, South Korea, Italy and Iran. The weekend did not see any of these potential risks decrease and so we open the week lower. Traders […]
February 7th Biotech Update
The sector seems to be in an odd spot. Fundamentals look fine and the trading is not awful but the chart looks precarious. We might have 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows right now. It almost looks like a broadening top but that usually sees higher highs as well as lower lowers. The chart […]
February 5 Biotech Update
So the sell off last week seemed like the market looking for news to sell off on and today it seems the opposite. Corona virus fears continue to decline and we see a market rally and even oil is rallying today. I think market expectations are now that the epidemic will continue to grow in […]
