The market and conflict in the Ukraine tough to read right now. Things have more or less settled into a stalemate in the Ukraine and the market is probably OK with that but this stalemate is not sustainable. The Ukrainians have been degrading the Russia supplies and this degrades Russian capabilities and increases the chance […]
March 7th Biotech (and Ukraine and Energy) Update
The situation in the Ukraine seems to have ground to a halt but this is a lull before another storm. The market is adjusting to the new reality but is still going to react to the ebbs and flows of the conflict. Risks are still tremendous and I am not sure how it all turns […]
February 16th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
The whiplash continues. A good day yesterday and weakness today. On the positive, it could be the case that we are continuing to build that messy bottom in the sector and so while I would like to see a nice clear uptrend, a long base building where we bounce around but do not make lower […]
February 2nd Biotech Update
The sector actually put together a couple of good days in a row but today is back to its underperformance. I would not give up on the sector given that it is still early in the day and the general market seems a little supportive of a reversal. Also even if the sector has changed […]
January 31st Biotech Update
I may have bottomed the sector. I do not remember what day it was but I talked about the sector possibly needing a sort of crash to bottom and get that seller exhaustion that would mark a bottom. The sector has done OK since then but of course this pattern has happened before. There as […]
January 26th Biotech (and Ukraine) Update
We did not end completely green the other day but we had two really impressive drops and reversals in a row. It will be awhile before the market can top Monday and even though Tuesday still ended red it was a signal that the bottom may be in at least in the short term. Those […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
2021 is finally over and 2022 enters with hopes of a better year but we all are probably scarred from the year that was 2021. JPM is coming and that brings with it hopes of M&A, positive guidance, and perhaps positive data. Last year it was not great and that ended up being a signal […]
Nov 18th Biotech Update
Today should be a good day. We were near the bottom end of the range where support should exist and the sector was oversold. As such, we were probably likely to bounce and today we got some M&A. While the deal was itself not a massive deal the timing works out for the sector to […]
October 29th Biotech Update
It was a good day for the sector yesterday and with generally positive earnings there is a chance we could build some momentum. Add to that the removal of the drug pricing reform threat (it came out yesterday that was removed as a source of funding) and you have the potential to develop momentum. Of […]
October 25th Biotech Update
The sector continues its muddle. We are approaching earnings seasons but there are not any real launches that are exciting and M&A has picked up a little but clearly has not really sparked interest. It is a broken record to talk about the sentiment and how poor it has been. It is at the point […]
July 30th Biotech Update
Unfortunately we were unable to string together some momentum for the sector. It could have be worse but ideally we would have built on some of our earlier strength this week as opposed to bounce around with some weakness mixed with the strength. It is not surprising given the downtrend we have established but there […]
June 24th Biotech Update
The sector is hot today and it is not precisely clear as to why. There has been some news that seems to be read as positive but this still looks to me like a sector that lacks a clear conviction. Usually you could see a day like this and then expect some positive momentum for […]
June 21st Biotech (and MLP) Update
We has some M&A to start the week but not in the sector. Deals have been happening to a certain extent but they have been partnerships and not M&A. Is that the wave of the future? Buying private companies and partnerships when it is public. That has been the pattern so far this year and […]
April 30th Biotech Update
The hits keep coming for the sector. It is certainly underperforming compared to many other market sector but let us be clear. It is not sentiment. I know it is frustrating to see the sector perform poorly but this year has seen a dearth of M&A, clinical and regulatory failures, and now a disaster of […]
April 15th Biotech Update
I want to be optimistic and speak to the new upside momentum in the sector and in the immediate term that is accurate. The issue is that even with all the positive price action we have only been able to get to the middle of the $125 to $140 range that is key for the […]
February 8th Biotech (and MLP) Update
We have moved past the large cap portion of the earnings with positive price action in the sector but less so in the companies that are reporting. I do not believe that is related to the quality of the earnings as they were generally fine but more of a broader disconnect between large and SMID […]
February 5th Biotech Update
The market seems like the prototypical market at highs tends to make marginal new highs. If that is the case, then the assumption would be a continued slow grind higher until the elevator down correction. In some ways, it also means that we are unlikely to get those price dislocations that make for the really […]
January 21st Biotech Update
We seem to be in a lull in terms of news. Certainly we are drifting higher with the market which is good but I do not expect any thesis changing news or even stock moving news until earnings start popping up in a week or two. I would think that next week we start to […]
January 20th Biotech Update
So the page has turned from JPM and next is earnings and the usual rush of secondaries. Remember, however, that we had lot of secondaries to end the year, so perhaps the end of January will not be as flush with cash raising as in previous years. Earnings will likely be a little anti-climatic as […]
January 15th Biotech Update
So JPM is done and it was the least eventful one I can remember. I am still a little surprised that the sector has done this well. Usually post JPM we see a flood of secondaries and I suspect there will be an uptick in the next couple weeks. That being said we ended last […]
