I am back and I am not sure if everyone should be happy or sad. There was a significant selloff while I was away but the past couple of days have had a nice bounce. I honestly feel a little better with the sector right now (as I will explain below) but we have neither […]
September 19th Biotech Update
The sector is not looking that great. We are at the level that could have been the support for a range bound market but we are marginally below it. It makes me think that we are heading down to the $72.5 area but the move has been more or less straight down and so are […]
September 5th Biotech Update
I think we are finally out of the riskiest area and are setting up a potential to break the downtrend. I think trading on Friday broke the clear downtrend, but we probably want to see more before declaring it over. Of course, not having the downtrend is different than having an established uptrend. It would […]
August 17th Biotech Update
Well, the lower low seems to have been put into place as the sector is acting pretty heavy, which is no surprising given that the broader market appears weak as well. I think we end up get to the 52-week low area for the sector (around 72 on the XBI) before we likely get real […]
July 25th Biotech Update
The sector has me worried a little as it is holding up but cannot follow the market higher. There has been real strength in the broader market but the sector has barely been able to eke out anything. What happens when we get a broader market correction? In some ways, the sector is perhaps next […]
May 23rd Biotech Update
A nice little rally yesterday and hopefully we can continue that momentum. Obviously the ideal scenario is that the sector can break out and go to a higher high after having set a higher low. To be fair, we have been in this situation before and even had a mini upward trend established only to […]
April 28th Biotech Update
It is more than a little disheartening to see a strong rally that leaves out the sector. If one wants to try and look at the bright side it saved us from breaking down and we seem to be bouncing off of a support level. Of course, it looks pretty meaningless if we cannot rally […]
February 6th Biotech Update
A relatively slow start to the week both in terms of news and trading. Last week we had a lot of large cap earnings and earing season continues but Mondays tend to be a little slow on the reports. We started the day red and are struggling to get to green. That would be a […]
January 22nd Biotech Update
We might have another week where we can break out. Last week we certainly had a chance but fell short. The rally to end the week, however, put us in range to make another attempt. We have been spending a lot of time at the top of the range recently and I tend to think […]
January 17th Biotech Update
Is this the moment of truth for the sector? Do we finally break out of the range and do so to the upside? We are at the upper end of the range with some good momentum and so this is probably the best chance we have had in awhile. To be clear I am not […]
January 4th Biotech Update
Not the best start to the year but we still remain in that range. I will be more interested to see how the sector trades next week as we get closer to JPM. I suspect the market is getting hit by both the Fed worries (I have to imagine that this impact lessens as the […]
December 29th Biotech Update (Review of my first 5 2022 predictions)
As the year wraps up it might be time to go back through my predictions for 2022 as I get the 10 ready for 2023. It can be a little humbling as one is not always as right as one would have hoped but I will review 5 today and 5 tomorrow. Prediction 1 The […]
December 22nd Biotech Update
The sector has done well since we approached the lower end of the range as was expected. A bounce from the low end made perfect sense. We are basically in the middle of the range and I still suspect that the sector makes it way to the upper end around $86. It will not be […]
December 20th Biotech Update
It was not a great start to the week. We still remain in that range and what we want to avoid is a low volume breakdown of that range. I do not think it would signal a clear breakdown if that were to occur, but it would put the sector teetering on the edge. Ideally, […]
December 13th Biotech Update
A decent start to the week, which was to be expected with the large deal. AMGN held up better than I would have expected, and the sector did well but remains in the range. We are getting to the holiday season and so I would not read too much into the moves but we still […]
November 30th Biotech Update
Are we setting up for the Santa rally? It would be a nice way to end the year and perhaps kick off early next year with a strong JPM. I think we are getting closer to the end of the rate hike cycle and if we think the market is typically 6 months ahead then […]
November 14th Biotech Update
We had a nice little rally to end the week and while I would like to say it was related to strong fundamentals, I think it was more macro related. It certainly helped that the sector has generally had a strong earnings season (as compared to something like tech) but I suspect that the market […]
October 28th Biotech Update
We were hitting the upper end of the range and so it is not completely surprising that we were a little weak. The tech earnings have not been great and that could hit the broader market, which would not great for the sector. That being said, The sector has been holding its own and the […]
September 13th Biotech Update
Today is going to be a macro day. The CPI data was a little too hot for the market. While I think we have likely seen peak inflation, it probably takes time for it to really cool down and likely involves more rate hikes and a slowing down of the economy (if not recession). The […]
September 9th Biotech Update
The market did well yesterday and hopefully we can build on that into the weekend. The ideal scenario is that old level that we broke out of ends up being the support that we use to move higher. Yesterday was a good start for that process but we need continuation. GILD announced some more detailed […]
