While I was expecting to talk a little about AGIO today, I want to go back to the macro sector sentiment as the proverbial hits keep on coming with ESRX making more noise about Sovaldi prices. In general, ESRX is arguing that GILD is going to bankrupt the entire healthcare system and that they will […]
Catalyst Watch – Vol. 2, Edition 10 (4/4/14)
Below are current tactical and strategic thoughts on approaching FDA and clinical trial catalysts for select names. Estimates, values and views are as of the date published (or are noted), are subject to potential future, pre-catalyst revision and are not intended as investment recommendations. Please read our Disclaimer: (1) Catalyst Watch List – Update: CYTK: […]
March 31 Biotech Update- Is this the Bounce We are Looking For?
So this seems to be the rally we were looking for but that is assuming it does not fade in the afternoon like every other recent rally attempt. So far the rally is a little more broad based and stronger but we have seen this story before. That being said even if this is the […]
March 25 Biotech Update- Would it Help to Cry Uncle?
Today certainly started as a better day in the sector but I would be careful of chasing this move. Ideally, we spend time building a base but a day or two of running is possible given the oversold conditions in the space. At this point I would lean towards the sector having put in a […]
March 24 Biotech Update- Being Kicked When You Are Down
Every sell off starts the bubble talk and the more severe the selling the more intense the bubble talk. What is interesting about this time is that the bubble talk has a broader audience as the sector seems to have been on more radars. As I have been saying for awhile, this sell off is […]
March 21 Biotech Update
[This was written Friday but the site was down and I was unable to post it. I am publishing it as it was Friday and will write another column later today for more recent news] Well, it was a manic day with a very nice win followed by the broader morning bloodbath in the sector. […]
March 14 Biotech Update- Seeing Red as Value or the End?
Interesting morning for the sector with the broader market relatively unchanged and the biotech sector selling off hard. Why would this be the case? Is it something fundamental to the sector or just jittery traders dumping unnecessarily? Given the macro uncertainty in the Ukraine it could just be the case that traders are reducing risk […]
March 7 Biotech Update- Selling Feeding Selling
I am going to spend today talking about the sector in general and send this note out early in light of the significant sell off that started yesterday afternoon and continued this morning. While the bulk of the discussion seemed to center on GILD it should be noted that it was the sector that got […]
March 5 Biotech Update- Rumors Dispelled
I am back from vacation and it looks like I did not miss much (I say tongue in cheek). Of course, even though I missed two big days of trading, my portfolio is basically unchanged since I left. I think that just goes to show how volatility is dangerous for a portfolio as one is […]
February 28 Biotech Update- Whose Afraid of a Little Selling?
Well, it was a good day for the market and sector, although it seems to be getting weaker as the day goes on. I think we need to be careful going forward as we are getting towards a seasonally weak portion of the year and the sector has had a nice run and is looking […]
February 24 Biotech Update- Blowing Bubble Talk (Again)
The broader markets certainly started the week off strong and took the biotech sector with them. That being said I did not see any really strong outperformance. The large caps were up but generally in line with the broader market and small caps more or less the same. So I really see today’s move as […]
February 21 Biotech Update- Data and Earnings Movers
Today seemed like a mixed day. There was certainly some areas of strength but nothing really seemed to catch a bid outside of news specific movers. While I do not know if this is true in terms of the performance, the sector really seemed sort of heavy early in the morning. Eventually some buyers came […]
February 19 Biotech Update- Talking Gene Therapy
We have had a strong couple of days and clearly the biotech rally is in continuation mode but I still would not be surprised to see a day or two like today where it rests a little. Keep in mind that the IBB index is essentially an index of large cap biotechs and will move […]
February 17 Biotech Update- A Presidents Day Bonus
The market is obviously closed today but I wanted to have a brief note because I am not sure I will have time to write anything significant tomorrow. 1. One question that has been in the back of my mind is M&A. I keep expecting to see more as BMY, GILD, PFE, and others have […]
February 14 Biotech Update- A Churning, Choppy Day
The market has been good the past couple of days with biotechs continuing higher, although it still seems to me that we are in a pause that should refresh as opposed to being ready to move higher. In some ways it depends on the macro environment but perhaps we will finally get to a stock […]
February 11 Biotech Update- Some Positive Catalysts
It was a good day for the broader markets and a decent day for biotechs, although it seemed a little like a mixed bag with some stocks underperforming the rally. That being said simply following the broader market higher at this point is good for biotechs and likely means that this rally (relief or continuation) […]
February 7 Biotech Update- Recovery Edition
Despite the disappointing jobs report, the market held up fairly well and the biotech sector doing well (and seems to be getting relatively stronger as the day goes on). Large caps appeared to be a little stronger than the broader market, although perhaps that would have been more pronounce if it were not for GILD […]
February 6 Biotech Update- A Mixed Day
It is good day in the market but a bad day for large cap biotechs as most underperformed (large cap pharma was a little different but still not great). Small and mid caps seemed to do better but I would not say that they clearly outperformed the market (but still did better than the large […]
February 5 Biotech Update- How Now Brown Cow?
I said yesterday that I was not convinced that the coast was clear and today shows why. My hunch is that the market is hurting both bulls and bears and the best play is to stay on the sidelines unless a stock comes to you. Forcing a trade or trading out of boredom in the […]
February 3 Biotech Update- The Bloodbath Edition
It was another rough day in the market with a familiar pattern- market weak, large cap biotechs outperforming the broader market and small cap biotechs underperforming. It makes sense in that risk off means selling biotechs but large cap biotechs have a valuation buffer in their growing free cash flow. This is not to say […]
