This week has another batch of earnings that will likely drive sentiment and price action. So far it seems like the sector is more or less trading in line with the market but perhaps slightly better. There is still some follow up from last week to talk about and one big earning tomorrow. 1. When […]
April 26 Biotech Update
Today is the eye in the center of the storm with a number of earnings tomorrow. It might also be the eye in the center of the North Korean crisis as Trump is meeting with all of the Senate and House to discuss the situation. If we can get through the next couple days without […]
April 24 Biotech Update
The market is surging and is dragging the sector higher with it. It seems to me that the sector is not doing particularly well given the new risk on environment but it is also not doing exceptionally poor. We had a large M&A announcement but it was med tech so we are still waiting for […]
March 24 Biotech Update
Do we have AHCA fatigue yet? It could end today if the House votes no but a yes vote likely means another couple months of debate as it moves to the Senate where it is a non-starter. What is interesting for the broader market is the claim by Trump that he would move on to […]
February 21 Biotech Update
Long weekend and a significant lack of news. I do not think there was an expectation of big news but sometimes these long weekends can surprise with a flurry of mergers- not today. Without anything major I will do a series of quick hits on the news since last Friday. Market is doing well to […]
February 14 Biotech Update
Some decent news this morning for the sector but not quite a robust reaction. Perhaps the sector needs to pause after its recent run or perhaps it will rally later but I would have expected a little more follow through. It is still early and regardless of the price action the sector needs to continue […]
February 8 Biotech Update
Certainly some news for the sector and not great news but it seems to be having limited impact on the broader sector. In other words, people seem to be seeing GILD problems as isolated to GILD and not the broader sector but that is certainly something we need to watch. 1. I am very glad […]
February 7 Biotech Update
The sector (and I guess you could argue the market in general) has been pretty dull the past couple of days. During the past year these periods of no news led to a slow grind lower but it seems that the sector is holding up well if not grinding a little higher. It is only […]
January 25 Biotech Update
Tomorrow is our big earning day (will not be able to write tomorrow so look for an update on the news Friday) but today we at least had a positive earnings with NVS. While I am sure there will be tradable extreme moves, the sector is going to continue to need positive earnings and data […]
January 23 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of new news out this week but this is a week where earnings start, which could pick up the pace a little in terms of fundamental news. Two potential caveats. First, coming on the heels of JPM there is likely not a lot of new information to be provided. Companies […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The year continues at two for two with another trial failure but so far the market is shrugging it off. It is not surprising as expectations build for JPM. Usually the Monday of JPM is filled with news but it has been creeping forward a little as some companies are releasing news the week before […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
Welcome to 2017 and we are not off to a great fundamental start with a phase III failure, capital raises and price increases. In other words, more of the same. I will continue with my previews but want to start off with a broad overview of the sector and perhaps an alternative narrative for 2016 […]
December 26 Biotech Update
I hope that everyone is having a good holiday season. News has slowed to a crawl and I will start making the 2017 previews unless there is some breaking news. I will start with large caps and move down the capital structure. 1. My 2017 large cap biotech pick is CELG (surprise) but I am […]
November 21 Biotech Update
An exciting return to the sector for me and I mean that sarcastically. Not really much to talk about heading into this Thanksgiving week and I would not be surprised if the only news we see this week is from companies trying to sneak out bad news. Volume should be low with drifting price action […]
November 9 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of stock specific news but I want to spend some time today talking about the election results and its implications and then starting Friday I will move to talking about upcoming catalysts for the sector. The election results were clearly outside of expectations and not only did we not have […]
November 7 Biotech Update
Welcome to election week and stock performance across the board are going to be highly correlated. I suspect the move today is the pricing in of an increased probability of a Clinton victory. At this point, my expected outcome is a Clinton victory, Republicans hold the house, and the Senate is all but split up […]
November 2 Biotech Update
Any selling we see today cannot really be blamed on sentiment or the elections as we had our first day (in my opinion) of fundamentally bad earnings. Up to this point, it seems that the earnings were in-line to better than expectations but certainly not perfect. This is not the case for the big earnings […]
October 18 Biotech Update
It is still not great out there for the sector but yesterday was not awful, which I guess is an improvement. Perhaps we have reached a short term bottom and whether this is a longer term bottom I think depends on how comfortable investors are about the election. We clearly built in some expectation for […]
October 17 Biotech Update
The sector continues to weaken but still remains above the 200 day moving average. It seems to me that some panic is starting to set in as the sector cannot slow the bleeding. The selling appears to be relentless with nothing acting as support. As long as we stay above the 200 day, I am […]
October 14 Biotech Update
The sector may be due for a snap back (with the broader market) but I still get the sense that people are worried. My prevailing thought has been that this was related to both earnings jitters and a set of negative data. I still think those are a factor but I also wonder if the […]
