While yesterday ended up being quite positive for the sector (in general), I am still not going to read too much into it and would not be surprised to see those gains disappear in the next couple days. My view remains a low volume chop to the sector until we get out of the summer […]
August 8th Biotech Update
We are not quite getting the clarity to the upside but there is nothing to indicate that the sector is about to break to the downside. It seems like the path of least resistance is going to be chop perhaps until more investors get back from their summer vacations. The fall tends to see more […]
March 16 Biotech Update
The sector did not really have an encouraging day yesterday. Instead of broadening out the rally, the previous leaders slipped and nothing picked up the slack. There was a chance for the large caps to move the rally forward but they did not do so. Of course, no one should worry too much about a […]
October 11 Biotech Update
More of the same. The sector seems to be content to drift on low volume, which is pretty consistent with the broader market and the lack of fundamental news. Odds are this is the calm before the storm with the most likely set of news coming from earnings but even that should not be completely […]
October 23 Biotech Update
Unfortunately, the discussion for the sector continues to revolve around specialty pharma. This has brought the sector down (although perhaps not down as far as we would have thought, so perhaps that is a positive) and generated significant underperformance to the broader market. At some point, the negative headlines for the sector will end and […]
February 13 Biotech Update
Market seems pretty benign but the sector appears a little heavy. As I have been saying the only thing we can have confidence in about the market is the lack of confidence. Yesterday it looked like the sector really wanted to move higher but this morning appears to be sending the opposite signal (perhaps we […]
January 30 Biotech Update
I want to write this quick to get it out as I spent the morning taking the children to the dentist, so I have a late start. The market is bad (again) but this is really nothing new. This churning is really giving gristle to the bulls and bears. Bears are going to argue it […]
January 26 Biotech Update
It has been a mixed start to the week both in terms of the macro background and also stocks within the sector. It seems like both are looking for new leadership (to the upside or downside) and I still lean towards the next move being higher but it remains a low conviction view. On the […]
December 17 Biotech Update
I think we remain in a macro environment and it is increasingly difficult to interpret the recent moves. For instance, why are ABBV, ENTA, and GILD all going down? What has caused that relationship to breakdown? Is it macro related, end of the year portfolio adjustments, or something else? Along the same lines, why are […]
December 12 Biotech Update
The market is weak to open as a follow through on the selling yesterday. This feels like a reversal day but it is way too early to tell but either way I think we are going to get a sense of how stocks are going to trade into the end of the year. A day […]
November 10 Biotech Update
News continues to roll in and the market is providing a relatively neutral backdrop, which gives us a good sense of what the price action means. In other words, the price action of biotech stocks after news seems to be a clear signal of market reaction and is not being cloudy by macro effects. This […]
ABBV Survey Results [Free Content]
Earlier today on twitter there was a robust debate about the weakness seen in GILD and how this is related to fears on the upcoming competition from ABBV/ENTA. It seemed clear that there was a debate over the ultimate discount that ABBV was going to offer when compared to the GILD regime. While everyone had […]
November 5 Biotech Update
The markets seem to be in consolidation mode or to put it another way it is trying to make up its mind about the next move. At this point I am 50/50 on the next move as it really seems to be in no man’s land. The longer we stay at these levels the better […]
October 31 Biotech Update
A strong start to the morning but this seems a lot like a short term blow off rally but we need to see how the week closes. If we can end the day near the highs then I think the rally has some more legs in the near term but a close near the lows […]
October 8
It was basically a neutral open in the market this morning with more green than red. While I would certainly prefer a market ripping higher, it seems like a sharp short covering rally is not going to halt the down trend. A slow grind higher as buyers enter the market seems better but after the […]
October 3 Biotech Update
We are finally starting to see the snap back rally and the question at this point is going to be the sustainability. Ideally we would like to see increasing volume and closing near the highs and at this point my base case is that this has some legs over the near term. What I find […]
September 4 Biotech Update
Markets are generally moving higher again this morning likely on the back of quantitative easing making its entrance into Europe. I expect a slightly stronger reaction to this news but it is still early, so I would not be surprised if the market strengthened throughout the day. Debates over the utility of QE aside, they […]
March 14 Biotech Update- Seeing Red as Value or the End?
Interesting morning for the sector with the broader market relatively unchanged and the biotech sector selling off hard. Why would this be the case? Is it something fundamental to the sector or just jittery traders dumping unnecessarily? Given the macro uncertainty in the Ukraine it could just be the case that traders are reducing risk […]
February 5 Biotech Update- How Now Brown Cow?
I said yesterday that I was not convinced that the coast was clear and today shows why. My hunch is that the market is hurting both bulls and bears and the best play is to stay on the sidelines unless a stock comes to you. Forcing a trade or trading out of boredom in the […]
What to look for at AASLD 2013
We wanted to take a moment to highlight some of the presentations at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. This conference takes place Friday, November 1st thru Tuesday, November 5th and covers . Research interest in new therapies against the hepatitis C virus(HCV) still remain high, although […]
