While I thought we could have made a little push higher before the chart resets itself, it looks like we are in the midst of a pullback. I think anything into the $83 range would be reasonable in the context of a bull market pullback. Anything that moves lower than that would raise some questions […]
May 9th Biotech Update
Overall the market seems to be digesting the recent moves, which is fine. A day or two sitting around these levels before a push higher is probably better for the longer run potential of the next move. As long as we keep making higher highs and higher lows, it remains a positive environment for the […]
April 14th Biotech Update
A sleepy week sort of flipped in one day with both drama and action. We have pushed right up to the $80 level in the XBI which could act as some resistance but it will be interesting to see if the strength of yesterday can push through. From the bullish perspective, the ideal scenario would […]
April 4th Biotech Update
Not a ton of news so far this week and so it seems like the sector is trading on sentiment and technical. I think we have more or less made a round trip to where we started the week. I still think there is room to eventually move to the moving averages but it does […]
March 8th Biotech Update
We remain at a precarious position for the sector and market in general. We had a little bounce, but it was a disappointing ending to what could have been a nice day. Those sorts of reversal do not signal strength. To be fair, there was some more hawkish Fed talk and it is not necessarily […]
January 12th Biotech Update
The sector is setting up in an interesting manner. JPM weeks that have a red Monday tend to have a red week but we have been strong since then. Of course, there is a broader market strength that is probably helping the sector to a significant extend because the news has not been bad just […]
January 3rd Biotech Update
It is a New Year and two paths diverge in the sector. One would be an unprecedented third year in a row of decline and the second would be the first up year after back to back declines. I am going to use the next couple days to delineate my predictions for 2023. LLY […]
December 28th Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week but we remain in a range and rangebound. We are back at the bottom of that range and I do not see anything in the sector that should break us out one way or another. If anything, I think we start to drift a little higher as we […]
October 14th Biotech Update
I had a sneaking suspicion that we would reverse on that gap lower but in no way shape or form are we out of the woods. The Fed still will increase rates and risks to the financial markets remain high. It seemed that the doom and gloom had reached extreme levels and so a short […]
October 5th Biotech Update
Apparently all I need to do is put out a cautious note and the market takes off. I am going to goose the market even more as I am still not convinced we are out of the woods. I do not see us at the end of the interest rate hikes and the Fed wants […]
September 21st Biotech Update
The sector has managed to not breakdown and that is good. We are still in a precarious position with the macro still having the potential to drive us down regardless of the fundamentals. It really depends on the rate increase and how much the sector has priced in that action. We know that rates are […]
September 8th Biotech Update
Sorry for the little break. I am hopefully back and at it. The sector has not done great but it does not look too bad either. There have been lower lows and lower highs, which signals a clear downtrend but it seems to have been pretty orderly and we are now back to the old […]
August 15th Biotech Update
A slow start to the week but that is not necessarily bad. The sector has been strong and there has been nothing to change it. I think the biggest news has been outside the sector with the decline in the Empire State index, but I imagine that might not been a massive surprise (perhaps the […]
August 3rd Biotech Update
We started the week at the bottom of the range and within three days we are at the top of the range. I find days like this a little tough to judge. Big positive moves like this make it feel like there is very strong momentum but when they smack against the top of a […]
May 25th Biotech Update
It looked as though the sector tried to reverse a couple of times but it ended up being a red day. It would have been nice to get a good red to green reversal with follow through today but at least we are starting green today. It is important to have a good day today […]
May 2nd Biotech Update
The sector and market continue to do poorly. We are getting close to at least a short term bottom as the move lower has been pretty quick and relentless. Obviously the pattern is for these to be pauses before another move lower but the first thing we need is to at least stop the bleeding. […]
March 30th Biotech Update
The sector has had a good start to the week but we are not getting the big positive news that could really amp the move higher. As I noted the idea scenario would be this positive momentum to coincide with some sector meaningful positive news but not yet. This is not to say it is […]
February 7th Biotech Update
A good start to the week and we are still in the middle of earnings. Obviously the sector has been oversold and it is at least due for a dead cat bounce. It is also possible that last week was the start of the messy bottoming process. I am not sure even the market knows. […]
December 21st Biotech Update
The sector is really trying to confuse me. I thought the least likely scenario was going to be a green day for the sector and a red day for the market and the second least likely would be a red day for the sector and green for the market. It seemed to me that they […]
November 10th Biotech Update
Guess what, the sector remains range bound. We approached the upper end of the range and it was a pretty quick move to the upper end of the range but now we are pulling back. I thought there was a chance that the sector would get closer to the upper end of the range before […]
