Nothing dramatically new happening in the sector. There are a couple of interesting tidbits that are worth talking about but certainly no thesis changing or confirming news. 1. JNJ started off the earnings season with a mixed quarter. It is tough to read from JNJ to the sector writ large given the diverse base and […]
April 3 Biotech Update
AACR is in full swing with a couple more days worth of data coming but so far there has not been anything thesis changing to the upside or downside. To be fair, we have more data expected in the next couple days but as I noted previously this tends to be an earlier stage conference. […]
March 24 Biotech Update
Do we have AHCA fatigue yet? It could end today if the House votes no but a yes vote likely means another couple months of debate as it moves to the Senate where it is a non-starter. What is interesting for the broader market is the claim by Trump that he would move on to […]
Dave Trading – April 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
March 13 Biotech Update
Certainly getting some more news and events that could be driving the sector but nothing really thesis changing, we need to wait for the end of the week with the PCSK9 data. As we wait for that data, there are some interesting notes and company specific information that we can talk about. 1. KPTI was […]
March 6 Biotech Update
There is a little bit of news to start the week but nothing that likely seems thesis changing or will have a dramatic impact on sentiment/trends. We are in the tail end of earnings with a drum beat of small caps that might have some impact on the individuals companies but little on the sector. […]
March 1 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news the past couple of days but certainly some interesting events to talk about. I will focus on two but more generally the sector is doing well. There seems to be some more interest in the sector and the move in CELG might be that early warning signal of generalist interest […]
February 22 Biotech Update
A little bit of news since yesterday and I will focus on them but more broadly the sector seemed to struggle yesterday. It had been outperforming so a day of relative weakness is not unexpected but was certainly a sell biotech and buy everything else sort of day. Let us see if that pattern continues […]
February 17 Biotech Update
Some news to talk about today in a couple stocks and one idea I want to float that has been ruminating in my mind. The sector continues to do well as is the market in general. There has been some talk that the melt up is related to a massive synthetic short position in the […]
February 14 Biotech Update
Some decent news this morning for the sector but not quite a robust reaction. Perhaps the sector needs to pause after its recent run or perhaps it will rally later but I would have expected a little more follow through. It is still early and regardless of the price action the sector needs to continue […]
January 31 Biotech Update
We had some earnings but the real potential mover of the sector is the meeting this morning with Trump. The headlines are still early but it looks like a net positive for the sector but we will see how it is interpreted. If history repeats these meetings tend to see some minor announced concession in […]
January 30 Biotech Update
Volatility is the name of the game with the daily flow of disruptive executive orders coming out of Washington but despite this the VIX has been going down and the market in general has been holding up well. At some point this disconnect will correct and it will not be a simple gap down (or […]
January 27 Biotech Update
We obviously got some news and price action but most of it is explainable and somewhat predictable. I will highlight some of the news and focus on the BMY report as that seems to have generated the most discussion. 1. We had the buyout of ALIOY a lot sooner than I expected at a lot […]
January 24 Biotech Update
Still a slow start to the week especially for an earnings week. I will highlight a couple biotech points and one non-biotech. In terms of the non-biotech, I am becoming increasingly worried about the market in general. Keep in mind that one of the key advisors to Trump is Icahn who noted previously that the […]
Dave Trading – February 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
January 23 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of new news out this week but this is a week where earnings start, which could pick up the pace a little in terms of fundamental news. Two potential caveats. First, coming on the heels of JPM there is likely not a lot of new information to be provided. Companies […]
Dave-Trading Alert – CELG
I was still not exercised, but it looks like tonight our CELG options will be exercised. Monday, we will be selling the February $120 calls. We will have 200 CELG shares, therefore we will sell 2 calls. Right now they are priced at ~$1.18, but we will see their price on Monday. If you remember, […]
January 5 Biotech Update
News is starting to pick up as we approach JPM. This should continue through the weekend. There has not really been anything dramatic today as these early birds tend to be companies that would be overwhelmed by the bigger announcements expected closer to JPM. All in all, the net-net of news this morning has been […]
January 4 Biotech Update
The year continues at two for two with another trial failure but so far the market is shrugging it off. It is not surprising as expectations build for JPM. Usually the Monday of JPM is filled with news but it has been creeping forward a little as some companies are releasing news the week before […]
Dave Trading – January 2017
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
