Sentiment remains difficult in the sector but I think we are also close to the point that a reversal is due in that it is very difficult to get even more negative from these levels. For instance, JMP noted that in their index only 15 stocks gained last week versus 84 losing value and that […]
November 20 Biotech Update
The news is winding down as we get closer to the holidays but there is some news today. For the most part, I do not expect a lot of news but there could be an M&A push to end the year if bankers need more deals for their bonuses. That being said I think we […]
November 13 Biotech Update
Another week and another noticeable lack of M&A. At this point, we are so use to nothing happening that it seems like a normal week (which it is). Even though I enter every week with the expectation that nothing will be done, it still surprises me that the large caps that are getting destroyed because […]
November 7 Biotech Update
Some news to start the day but nothing particularly thesis changing. The sector seemed to hold onto to some of its gains yesterday but more or less a treading water day. The next real sentiment test with perhaps fundamental news would be ASH in early December and perhaps we simply drift between now and then. […]
November 1 Biotech Update
The sector is doing well with the release of the ASH abstracts. There is not a ton to glean from the data but there are certainly some nice updates that we should follow to see what happens when we get the full presentations at ASH. In some ways, the more important driver of the sector […]
October 31 Biotech Update
The sector held onto some of the early gains but not a great finish. I read the retracement more related to broader market weakness on the fears of tax reform rather than an indictment of the bio bounce. Today will be important (assuming broader market is benign) to see whether the bounce has any chance […]
October 30 Biotech Update
It is a good start to the week for the sector but whether this is a dead cat bounce or something more meaning has yet to be determined. The selling has been pretty intense and likely overdone, so we were due for at least a bounce and we got through a morning without bad news. […]
October 27 Biotech Update
It has been an absolutely brutal earing season for the sector and for pretty good reason but you have also seen some babies being thrown out with the bathwater. Given the selling that has occurred, it is a natural reaction to assume these are buys or a bounce is coming but I prefer to sit […]
October 26 Biotech Update
A lot to discuss and I will do a couple quick hits and then focus on CELG as that seems the most fundamentally meaningful earnings report. This is going to take a couple days to really talk through all these reports but we will start with some high level points. 1. AMGN quarter was inline […]
Dave-Trading November Edition
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
October 23 Biotech Update
News will really start to pick up this week with a full set of earnings. There are a couple of interesting ones to watch but given how late we are in the year, the odds of a massive beat or miss are increasingly small. That being said there could still be some nice movers. 1. […]
October 10 Biotech Update
I was in my office yesterday to write but there is really nothing happening in the sector that is exceptionally newsworthy. I was hoping we would have some news today but it looks like we are in a bit of a lull. The good news is that it will not last too much longer as […]
October 6 Biotech Update
News continues to be a little slow but there are some companies that I want to follow up on given some discussions that have been percolating. In general, the sector continues to look good if not overstretched to the upside but as I noted before there is little reason to think that any pullback would […]
September 8 Biotech Update
The sector has been doing well but it seems to have been a bifurcated market with big winners and losers. The broader market seems to be listless which is not helping. My low conviction view is that the sector looks ready to lead another leg higher but we need broader market participation for it to […]
August 7 BiotechUpdate
We have some interesting earnings news but this will more be catch up from the last week. My broader view is that despite any positive or negative news the sector is more likely than not to retest the breakout levels. There is some support at the current levels so there might be a near term […]
July 27 Biotech Update
There is a lot to talk about today, so I will jump right into the most interesting and important news. 1. MYSTIC did not meet the primary PFS endpoint. There was no PFS benefit over chemo with either monotherapy or combination. This is disappointing but not necessarily the end of the story. While the details […]
July 26 Biotech Update
If there has been a consistent theme to earnings this week it has been beat and raise but with stock underperformance. This is not great in the near term as you would prefer good news leading to positive price action but it is not stunning given the recent price action in the sector. If this […]
July 24 Biotech Update
It should be a big week for news but it is starting a little slow, which is not unexpected as the earnings are clustered Tuesday through Thursday. There is some minor news to start the week but it is simply a small appetizer as to what should be a week of news. That being said […]
July 19 Biotech Update
The sector got a big boost from VRTX last night. If it cannot rally off of this news, then buckle your seatbelts and hedge your positions as there is unlikely to be better news anytime soon. The only large catalyst that could match this impact would be a home run for MYSTIC or AXON crushing […]
July 14 Biotech Update
Not a lot of news to end the week, so I will touch on a couple of quick longer term themes. The sector was a little stronger than I would have expected yesterday on the back of the news that medicare will not run out of money until 2029 meaning that IPAB will not be […]
