The broader market looks heavy and it appears that if we end the day red that the weekly losses will be accelerating. Markets do not bottom on a Friday, so if we cannot have a real move higher today, then we will likely be lower again to start next week. We are obviously higher to […]
February 7 Biotech Update
So it looks like we are going to be tied to the broader market for a little while. We are still in the middle of earnings (although most large caps have reported) but it seems unlikely that anything meaningful will be coming out in the near term that would drive meaningful relatively under or over […]
January 25 Biotech Update
We are getting some biotech earnings but nothing that is dramatically thesis changing. We had a little consolidation yesterday and I would not be surprised to see it continue but the trend remains higher and suspect that we break into new highs in the first quarter (assuming at least a benign general market environment). 1. […]
January 22 Biotech Update (Merger Monday Edition)
The M&A smoke turned into fire as we had two deals to start the week. This was supposed to be the slow Monday of what will be a busy week with earnings but we started off strong with two large deals. I will focus on these deals and there implications for the companies and the […]
Dave-Trading – February 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
January 19 Biotech Update
The M&A smoke in the sector is coming quick but it remains to be seen if this is just smoke or whether there is fire beneath. After a clearly disappointing 2017 and 2018 JPM, it is hard to imagine that there is not real fire given the needs of large bio and pharma to rebuild […]
January 18 Biotech Update
We had a little ice storm down here that has shut the town down for a couple days (I snuck into the office today), so I missed some interesting news. I will focus on the M&A as there are a couple of aspects that make it interesting. 1. Reports were that CELG was in negotiations […]
January 16 Biotech Update
Some interesting news to start the week. I suspect it will be good enough to help the sector as it was a little surprising and definitely early. We have still not seen the massive uptick in secondaries (a couple are happening) but that is likely only a matter of time and will likely mark the […]
January 9 Biotech Update
While yesterday was not a good day for the sector, it certainly could have been worse. The commentary out of the trading desks was that the early selling was hedge funds (fast money) who were positioned long expecting more M&A and then the modest recovery was long only funds coming in to position for a […]
January 8 biotech update
This is not a good start to JPM if this is the best the sector can do in terms of fundamental news. Unless news picks up, I would count it as a win if we end the week flat. It is not that there is particularly bad news but the expectations heading into JPM are […]
January 5 Biotech Update
JPM is just about here and traders are suddenly turning anxious. The days leading up to the meeting have gone without a big splash deal and doubts are starting to creep into investors about the potential that JPM falls flat without a major catalyst. There is still plenty of time but that is a real […]
January 4 Biotech Update
Today we are seeing a little consolidation for the sector after a solid start to the year. A real strong sentiment signal would be the sector overcoming this early morning selling to end the day green but even if we stay red it is not that big of a worry after the past couple days. […]
January 2 Biotech Update
Welcome to the New Year full of hopes and questions. In the lead up to JPM (and likely a slow build up in news as companies try to take the spotlight earlier and earlier every year), I will spend the week on broad 2018 themes and thoughts. Of course, if news happens I will focus […]
Dave Trading – January 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
December 15 Biotech Update
The question I keep asking myself is whether or not JPM really will be the positive catalyst that everyone is expecting (or really hoping for). We know that companies tend to save good news for JPM and good news should push stocks higher especially if they have been lagging. While I understand that logic, I […]
December 14 Biotech Update
Volume and news is starting to dry up but there were some interesting tidbits to talk about but they are more interesting than really game changing. In any case, we are quickly approach the holiday lull but on the positive side that means we are closer to the JPM rush of news. 1. CLLS reported […]
December 11 Biotech Update
There is no ASH hangover quite yet but it usually comes pretty quick after the conference. Perhaps this year will be different given that outside of a few good days, there was no real run up into the conference. There is a lot to talk about and so I will take the next couple days […]
December 6 Biotech Update
The sector and stocks are going to give everyone whiplash. Despite their being some out performers, it seems like every move higher gets smashed later in the day. There are too many stocks to count that make a nice move higher only to end the day red. As I noted yesterday, it is unclear the […]
December 1 Biotech Update
It looks like the market and sector are going to be tied to the fate of the tax bill (at least that is how it seemed yesterday) and that makes sense given how many breaks it provides to businesses. The sector modestly outperformed the broader tech sector, which is likely some kind of catch up […]
November 29 Biotech Update
The sector seems to have gotten its footing a little and while that does not mean it will shoot higher, it does seem to have stopped the decline. As I noted before both ASH and JPM can be stock moving with JPM usually a very strong period for the sector as companies save good news […]
