It looks like the market is in dangerous territory but barring some exogenous shock (perhaps war between Iran and Israel as a potential source of shock), it seems more like a long period of sideways trading. All rallies are being sold but the market has enough oversold conditions that it would be difficult to have […]
Dave Trading – May 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
April 23 Biotech Update
Sort of a quite start to the week but it is Monday of the first week of earnings, so it is not completely surprising to see a slow start. Obviously news will pick up with the earnings this week and perhaps we get some news outside of earnings but that remains TBD. 1. PRTA announced […]
April 12 Biotech Update
I am still convinced that the biggest macro risk for the market remains Syria. While there remains a chance that there is ultimately no attack, it seems that the past couple days has been a buildup of assets around Syria to allow for a more robust campaign. The final decision has not been made but […]
April 10 Biotech Update
I am rushed this morning but I wanted to put out a quick note. The market is still volatile with the Cohen search yesterday sending the market down and the potential relaxation of the trade war sending the markets higher. I want to highlight a third macro issue and that is Syria. It is a […]
April 5 Biotech Update
The sector finally got its bounce and took some of the beaten down large caps with it. The sector (and market more generally) needs to follow through on this move and I do not mean a couple more hours but days of consolidation. A little back filling is fine but we cannot have another one […]
April 4 Biotech Update
The market is a volatility machine. We went so long without any real volatility and now all we have a whiplash moves. In periods of these, the goal is to trade less (at least for those with a longer term view). Let the valuations come to you and do not worry about the swings. It […]
March 29 Biotech Update
It has certainly been an interesting couple of days. It looked like the sector was toast Tuesday and then we end up not getting the follow through selling yesterday. Despite all of the whiplash trading, there really has not been a lot of net movement higher or lower. What I do find a little interesting […]
March 26 Biotech Update
The market is going to bounce today and there are a number or proximate reasons. It could be the Stormy bottom. A dead cat, oversold bounce. A “maybe there will not be a trade war” bounce. Maybe a little of each or none of them. Bottoms on Fridays are a little rare, so the gap […]
March 23 Biotech Update
It seems like the market does not like 19th century economic policies, although I think it is likely more than simply the tariffs. The market has risen despite numerous political risks and now it seems to be more accurately reflecting the risks that arose the past 18 months. So it is not just the tariffs, […]
March 22 Biotech Update
Sector is down, although it is not clear if that is the sector or the prospects of a trade war with China that is bringing down the whole market. Between trade wars, the hawkish fed, and other potential macro issues, it seems that we might be entering into another period of macro trades affecting sector […]
March 21 Biotech Update
You would think the sector would have given us some more clarity by now but it still seems on the verge of breaking out or breaking down. The XBI could have put in a double top or is setting up a cup and handle pattern. Sentiment is not great as the reaction to Trump’s talk […]
Dave Trading – April 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
March 14 Biotech Update
The trend is your friend barring anything new in the sector. It seems like we at least want to test recent highs if not break through them, although the sector is at an odd position with both seemingly significantly over valued and undervalued stocks at the same time. This actually gives a nice tell for […]
February 28 Biotech Update
Last night was an interesting night (to put it kindly). One is more a stock reaction story and the other is an unknown-unknown story. Let us dive into these issues. 1. The easier of the two is TSRO. Revenues were basically in line with perhaps a small miss on Zejula (consensus of $46M versus actual […]
February 20 Biotech Update
There is some news to start the week but mainly some minor partnerships and some data. Not the large scale M&A that people always seem to hope for after a long weekend. It remains to be see whether the market forgives this pause in the M&A or whether these more minor events are enough to […]
February 16 Biotech Update
There has been some interesting news to end the week. The market seems to have recovered its footing a little and this includes the sector. There is still some work to be done to repair the damage of the sell off but so far so good. 1. NBIX has been interesting. I thought it would […]
Dave Trading – March 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
February 14 Biotech Update
It is a pretty active morning for news, so I will dive right into the events as they are pretty interesting. I am not convinced that these will be enough to break the sector out higher but they are all generally positive in the longer term. 1. The least interesting news was NBIX earnings that […]
February 12 Biotech Update
The rule of thumb is that markets never bottom on a Friday but we at least got a short term bottom as the market rallied into the close. Whether this was simply the bottom of a dead cat bounce or “the” bottom of this correction remains to be seen but given heavily oversold conditions, it […]
